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Help! Dak or Darnold

Looking for reassurance in my move to play Sam over Dak. Arguments?

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I know I recommended Darnold over Dak based on my QB projection model, and right now it isn’t looking good given the day Dak just had. Here’s what I have on Darnold: his last four games he has performed higher than expectation (based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) by two full points more than his season-average. In other words, if we consider the last four weeks as the most relevant portion of his season for projecting this week, his projection would be two points higher. Increasing his projection by two points would project him as the QB4, vs. the QB10 where he is now. So taking an optimistic view, Darnold has very realistic top-5 upside, and an outside chance still of outperforming Dak.

Hope it works out!

-Dan
Please check out my Week 13 streaming post where I provide weekly and rest-of-season rankings, scoring projections and waiver recommendations for QBs, TEs and DSTs. Comments and feedback are welcome. Thanks!