Help me with my Keeper

I’m in an 8 team full point ppr Keeper League. We essentially have a keeper round and then the draft begins. You can choose to not keep a player too and the lowest seeded team then gets the real first overall pick of all remaining players.

I’m considering keeping Mahomes or Hill (Hill finished as the wr 1 in our league) from my roster. I also have AB, OBJ, Chubb, DJ and Gordon. I pick last in the snake (Champs!!) and am hoping Hill and Kelce both fall to me with that turn around pick so I can get the band back together if you will. That trio (quartet when I had Hunt) was unstoppable most weeks.

Typically QBS aren’t taken in my league until round 5 or later but am I wrong to consider Mahomes a special case worthy of my Keeper selection? He averaged 40 pts a game in my league, nearly 10 more than the number 2 QB Matt Ryan, 16 more pts a game than Hill and 13.5 more pts a game than Saquon who make up the number 1 ranked skill positions in my league. I can’t let him get away right?

Again, typically no one chooses a QB until round 5 so keeping Hill and grabbing Kelce and Mahomes at the turn is a possibility. But I just can’t see one of the other teams not grabbing Mahomes to go with their keeper. If I had to predict the other 7 keepers, they’d be - Nobody for the first overall pick, Zeke for #2, Saquon #3, Lev Bell #4(? Maybe nobody), Kamara #5, Gurley #6, McCaffery #7 and then my choice. The idea of going with the Kelce/Hill/Mahomes core and building around them is the current plan but I wonder if it’s the best plan?

Don’t keep Mahomes. Let someone else draft a QB high and you scoop up the WR and RB depth.

He was the perfect late round QB this year. Drafted late or picked up from waivers and became an every week starter. That doesn’t change the late round strategy. It means it worked.

What’s your roster like?

Sorry the players I’m considering are

Mahomes
Hill
OBJ
AB
Melvin Gordon
Nick Chubb
David Johnson

@fun4willis I totally get where you’re coming from, but should Mahomes be valued higher? I took him late in last years draft as insurance to my rd 7 pick of Russell Wilson. If I had Wilson as my starter there is no way I would have won my league. I could have played the waiver game with Winston, Mayfield etc but Mahomes scored 10 more pts a game on average than the next closest QB in Matt Ryan. I also had Manning when he went over 5k and 50 with Denver and I outscored the league by a large margin that year as well. I really don’t want to have to play against Mahomes ever in this league hahaha. If for example, I was 100% sure that Mahomes would be there for me at pick 1-8 or 2-1 I’d likely keep Hill. Every other year I’d be 100% sure no one would take a QB in the 1st but this year I’m not so sure. Sure I can recover but having him this year seemed like such an advantage especially with the Kelce, Hill stack. There were games where normally unbeatable deficits were wiped out because of the combined performances of those 3 (4 when I had Hunt). What worked this year may not be my best strategy next year but man I just destroyed the league this year with those guys and I know my league mates want a piece now.

I agree with the other guy. I wouldn’t keep Mahomes. With those running backs you just named coming off the board. I’d keep Gordon. I don’t see Mahomes have as good a year next year as this year. Teams now have a full year of tape in him as opposed to having nothing on him this year. Also I think the TE landscape will be better next year than it was this year.

I appreciate the feedback. Gordon was great when healthy but he just seems injury prone to me. I’d be happier with the safety of AB (assuming he patches things up in Pitt) if I were gonna seriously consider Gordon. I am seriously considering him though, just not as high as Hill, AB, Mahomes. If I keep anyone other than Mahomes, I’m leaning Hill. He’s not as consistent as other players but his upside has to be the highest considering his deep ball skills combined with his big armed QB. How things shake out in the playoffs will go a long way to determine my opinions on a lot of players especially Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and Gordon and Damien Williams too. Mock drafts were really helpful to me this year also, as my real draft results were really close to most of my mock drafts. For now, with the recent taste of success, largely due to the KC offense, I’m seeing no reason not to go to that well again in 2019. I really appreciate all the feedback too. Thanks!

And am I overlooking Chubb here? A full offseason to work with the 1s, as the rb1 in a potentially high powered offense akin to the Rams in year 1 under McVay, depending on their coach and scheme this option is interesting.