Need your opinion for my keeper league. Our league is a 14 team, 0.5 ppr, standard positions (1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 flex, 1dst, 1def, 6 bench). We have a keeper league where we can keep up to 3 players from the previous year in place of our first 3 draft picks. But you don’t have to keep all three. If you only keep 2, it only replaces your first 2 round draft picks. And so on…
So here’s my dilemna. I’m already keeping David Johnson and Gronk for my first two picks. I have the option to keep Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, or Ty Montgomery. Out of those three, the only one that has gone remotely close to the top 42 (14 teams x 3 rounds) is Sammy Watkins. His current ADP (according to fantasydraftcalculator.com) is 41. I like the upside of Sammy, especially with both Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin gone. However, the injury risk is always there, the Bills are one of, if not the most, run heavy offense in the league, and Zay Jones has a lot of hype coming out of camp. Not to mention that the Bills decline Sammy’s fifth year option. Which also makes this a contract year for him.
So for my question. If you were me, would you keep him in place of your 3rd pick? I’m leaning yes because even though he is going in the 4th round in normal leagues, I have to wait until the end of the 4th for my next pick since I’m the #4 pick in a snake draft. So I would have to wait 21 picks after my 3rd round pick. As for the guys that aren’t going to be kept that may be there, that’s hard to predict at this point but I’m thinking guys like Tyreek the Freak, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor, and Allen Robinson MAY be there. Out of those guys, I’m not sure any of them are better/have less risk than Sammy.
Any and all opinions will help. Trust me. Especially from the best community out there. Thanks in advance guys!