I am in a keeper league where one player can be kept each year at a price of one round higher then he was drafted the year prior. It is a 12 team 1/2 point per reception league that has a super flex. My best options are Hopkins in the 5th or Michael Thomas in the 7th. I’m having a hard time deciding if 2 rounds of value put Thomas ahead or if Hopkins WR 1 upside keeps him ahead. I appreciate all input. Thanks!!
for me, its not big enough of a value to go with thomas. dont get me wrong, its still a great value. but with brees out the door sometime in the next few years, and although that wont matter that much until it happens, the chance are one of these 2 will be your keeper until you cant keep them anymore. cause i assume that after you keep them for a 1st, you cant keep them anymore. but pairing hopkins with a good QB is going to make him so reliable. he might end up being the best WR the next 5 years, and you will get him at a premium for the next 4. that value is too good to give up on IMO.
I think Thomas and Hopkins are very close. A two round difference makes the decision easy for me. Thomas, comfortably, but obviously Nuk is a nice value here too.
I would choose Michael Thomas without much hesitation. There is value to both sides but I like Thomas value more
I would go with Hopkins. I can see a world where he ends up with 3+ more TD’s and more 200+ more yards than Thomas, so i think that makes up for the 2 rounds
I’m with Hopkins here by a good bit, their floor is similar, but his ceiling is so much higher. I mean Imagine the guy having a year with a GOOD QUARTERBACK…
For me it’s Thomas. There is no way Watson can keep up that touchdown pace even if he comes back 100%. Also, with a healthy JJ the Texans defense won’t allow 100000 points per game so they won’t have to throw the ball as much as they did last year. Plus defenses can’t double Thomas every play with Super Kamario in the backfield
Is he going to get more than the 174 targets from last year? Is he going to set a new career high in TDs for a second year in a row? Are we sure Watson is great? PFF gave him the 30th QB grade. His completion % was mediocre and his TD rate was completely unsistainable (likely double what it will be for his career).
Are they going to have to throw as much? Is Watson going to throw inside the 5 or keep It?
The point? There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of this offense and Hopkins in particular, especially at the asking price. A 5th is great value to he sure, but there is a real difference between the 5th round (Cooks, Landry, Tate, M. Jones, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis) and 7th round (Coleman, Hogan, Funchess, Mack Woods).
Thomas for me.
one thing to point out, he didnt say great, he said good QB. hopkins has done everything he has done with good defenses, and a whole lot of bad QB play. in 2015 when he had hoyer, mallet, yates and weeden throwing to him, he had a monster year. and that is the definition of a carousel of craptastic QBs. the point is, even with the regression coming watsons way (cause no one should expect him to have every game go the way his were going last year) and he is just a good solid QB, hopkins can still have a monster year, because he is just a monster player. and the difference between knowing what QB he will have the next 5 years and not knowing, are pretty big too. but this is really another situation where you cant go wrong either way. you either get an elite WR… or you get an elite WR. mostly comes to preference and how you see them playing out.
I’m on the Hopkins side. Based on the response it sounds like s win-win for you though!
It’s thomas for me here. The 2 rounds difference in keeper value is what does it for me and they are very close in tiering for me. Also I’ll just put this out there, Hopkins splits with and without Watson for the bad QB argument and Watson coming back and drastically improving stats:
With Watson: 21.09 PPR, 6.43 Rec, 1 TD, 10.86 Targets, 86.57 yards
Without Watson: 20.52 PPR, 6.38 Rec, 0.75 TD, 12.25 Targets, 96.5 yards
Shocking I know but it makes sense because bad QBs tend to just lock into the one guy and force it. So although he gets lower quality targets, he gets more of them. And 0.5 point differential per game doesn’t make me want to take him over MT 2 rounds and why I’m not really buying the whole narrative of Hopkins will better by a wide margin with Watson. And regression is coming there imo.