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I'm Sorry Adam Thielen, I was totally wrong about you - Week 5 Post-Mortem


#41

I try to not put too much weight behind what people say in post game or interviews. Especially when it comes to a hype man like Cousins, he’s always going to be positive, even if guys suck. I only really pay attention when it is something negative. I’m relying more on the film analysis. And when I watched the film, there are instances where diggs get sufficient separation for cousins to slide it in for that bomb but he decided to check down instead. The cousins we know and love, is a gun slinger and those long bombs will come. You could def be right in that scheme is limiting him a bit, but I am personally still holding out some hope on that front. Time will tell.

Coming into the season, Kupp was my top guy out of that group because I think he was the best value. After seeing week 1, I changed my opinion on Cooks entirely and I’m pretty confident he’ll be the WR1 there. I think Kupp and Woods are the 2A/B in the offense. I think Kupp is the one with the better floor. Woods is the one with the better ceiling. And I think Kupp has the most TD upside out everyone on the offense not named gurley. He is a red zone target hog and a TD machine. Great short area quickness for quick separation in tight spaces. And McVay is fantastic at scheming him open. Also, Kupp in my opinion is the best blocking WR in the NFL, his 2nd year in the league. I’m watching plays where they line this dude up across from a Linebacker and D line by himself in run blocking schemes. That is invaluable and means he never comes off the field. Doesn’t translate to fantasy but I find it so cool as a real football fan. He’s like a mini gronk. Watching him tank linebackers to open holes for gurley is very entertaining.

My bet is on Kupp leading the team in receiving TDs this year and getting about 1k yards. Which puts him at high WR2 or low WR1 potential depending on how many TDs he scores.


#42

I took amari cooper ahead of thielen in the 3rd round… I am a total moron :frowning:


#43

Yikes. I’m a pooper supporter but I only drafted him if he was available at bottom of the 4th or 5th rounds. Had Thielen ranked above pooper still so if Thielen lasted to 4th or late 3rd, I still got him.


#44

That is really cool to see. I played 10 years of football myself as a WR and I probably had more fun blocking and occasionally laying out LBs/DBs than I did actually running routes and catching the football haha so I can hugely appreciate a receiver like Kupp. Very excited to see how he progresses for the rest of the season, and not only because I have him on my line up…


#45

Kid is going to be a stud for a while and probably yield multiple double digit TD seasons.

Love the player, love the fantasy asset, love everything about him. Nothing more fun than watching 200 lbs slot receiver stuff a 300 lbs defensive end in zone blocking scheme. He’s the unsung hero of that run game man.


#46

There was another famous fantasy football podcast where one of the guys was totally down on Thielen and anybody who was drafting him high; he mainly cited Shurmur’s departure as the “obvious” reason for why AT’s numbers would go down this year, and was bashing anyone who couldn’t see that. “Stop that, people…” he said, “Stop drafting Adam Thielen so early.” Andy was a guest on that episode and politely held his ground, advocating for Thielen.

Both pieces of logic made sense to me . While I didn’t have a chance to draft Thielen near his ADP, I’m a pretty aggressive drafter when I like a guy, and I could have reached for him early, but I chose not to. Now I regret it, for sure.

Mike, I admire you for admitting what you’re wrong about. I try to own up when I can…


#47

If I am not mistaken, you are referring to Mike Tagliere / Bobby Sylvester who run the FantasyPros podcast. I’ve listened to the episode in question. I was in similar line of thinking as them but if that was my only reasoning, i would not have been as confident in being down on Thielen. I had a few other main reasons as well. And although all of those thoughts I had played well for Diggs who has been a stud in as well, I was clearly way off when it comes to Thielen.

I am wrong very often. Have been wrong about many things this offseason as I’m sure every is. Just got to pray and hope you are right more often than you are wrong.


#48

You weren’t the only one wrong on Thielen. Awesome seeing this from an undrafted, practice squad player, though.


#49

Yup…that’s the episode. He had other reasons, but the main one was Shurmur’s departure. I’ve read your analysis of Thielen and I kow you went into more detail than Tags.

Re. being right: I’ve been more right than I usually am this year.

But both of my teams are only 2-3 and listing towards the losing side of things as far as I can see.

Good luck the rest of the way!


#50

HOT DAMN ADAM THIELEN! Use the pass to set up the run. That’s the gameplan for the vikes.


#51

Craziness man. This guy continues to impress and taking fully advantage of 2nd tier coverage. With Patrick Peterson on Diggs, I didn’t really expect diggs to do too much although he caught both targets in his coverage for 29 yards. But Adam Thielen appears to always be open. This dude is going off. Wonder how long he can keep this up. I guess as long as Cousins is willing to pepper the guy with 15+ targets a game, he’s bound to produce.

Anyone know what his Air yards to YAC ratio is? I bet it’s much better than last year cause I see Cousins hitting him deeper than keenum did but he’s still YACing pretty well from what I’ve seen.

Maybe it’s time for me to accept him as a top 5 WR and maybe even top 3. It would be absolutely amazing to see this undrafted practice squad player break both Marvin Harrison and Megatron’s single season receiving records…


#52

At what point will defences start putting their best CB on Thielen instead of Diggs?
I have Diggs as my WR1 and am considering trading him away for someone more reliable if possible, but can’t see many takers as he’s in a funny low WR1 / high WR2 tier.
But if defences were to focus on Thielen for a few weeks, Diggs could then explode.

Or is it that Diggs is such a faster runner and more a deep threat than Thielen, that he will always get the best CB sticking to him?


#53

I don’t think they do. Diggs is still Uber talented so he’s going to draw top coverage. I’d hold on to him. I’m trying to trade for him right now.


#54

Just my take and I’ve not watched every game and route for Diggs and Thielen but Diggs doesn’t go into the slot whereas Thielen does and sees a lot of production from there. Most elite corners don’t follow guys into the slot and with Diggs ability on the outside unless you have two stud corners you can’t take your best guy of Diggs and let him beat you deep for massive gains or a score - you’d rather take you lumps with Thielen with more guys in the vicinity to stop him. He’s just very good so it’s proving hard but i’m sure this weighs into it too and why he wont see top cover guys all that often vs Diggs.

You get the down weeks with Diggs but he’s still a stud and worth the hold in my view as well


#55

Cheers guys. I’ll prob stick with him too, seeing as my league doesn’t want to trade anyone ever anyway! Hoping for a good game away to the Jets this week from Stefon Diggitty!


#56

This will never happen. Diggs is a more talented receiver and even a better route runner tbh. His releases off the line and cross overs are insane. Just watch some of the plays where the ball doesn’t go his way. Regardless of production, teams will always put their CB on the opposing teams best receiver, which is diggs. Thielen just happens to be the better fantasy receivers so far this season. If Diggs got the coverage Thielen got, he would probably break the game. One of the rare exceptions i see to this rule was in the falcons/saints game earlier this year where Lattimore switched from shadowing JJ to Ridley after he burned them for like 150 yards and 3 TDs but as soon as he switched over, JJ burned the corner for a 50 yard bomb. That’s why people don’t do it. Defenses don’t chase production, they scheme to lock down talent.

Also, Thielen runs primarily out of the slot. Opposing team’s best cornerbacks are typically outside guys. Only full shadow corners travel with guys into the slot, even then, not 100%. They can’t really afford to give diggs non-elite CB coverage cause whenever people have done that, diggs burns them to the tune of 100+ yards and multiple TDs. Just look at his past games vs weaker defenders. They can’t cover him at all.


#57

It’s very similar to the situation in Pitt. I mean, Diggs could actually be better than AB, and i don’t think that’s a stretch. That leaves JuJu and Thielen able to bobble up all the points.


#58

My fiance never lets me forget I encouraged her to draft Diggs over Thielen… Diggs is good on the road, but I am a little scared ROS at this present rate… Thielen is a target monster and Cousins only has eyes for him… So concerned for Diggs that I am actually considering playing Marquis Goodwin against the bad Rams pass D or Taylor Gabriel hosting the Pats…

Vikings D just got worse with another player down for the year…

The rule change killed me for Michael Bennett and the Eagles, personally and also in FF… Lost that week due to these horrific penalties, and that killed the Eagles as that penalty kept a drive going leading to a score on the next play. Either make QB’s 2 hand touch or give them flags to wear, or stop with this idiocy. This is a real part of why scoring is going crazy, because stalled drives are getting extended and teams are scoring more as a direct result of more offensive opportunities.


#59

Talent wise, i don’t think this is a stretch either. If you give digs 180-200 targets, I think his numbers would be jaw dropping. But there is no need when there are easier throws to be made to slot receivers with inferior coverage.

Yeah I touched on this a bit in my write-up above. This is a historic season in terms of scoring for teams. Stark contrast to last year. part of it is because of the rules as both you and I have alluded to, part of it has to do with the fact that we have all the starting QBs in tact in this year compared last year where we lost a few starters right off the bat (Rodgers, Luck being the big ones). I think this will correct for itself though. Whenever there are rule changes in favor of offenses (i.e. when they changed rules for defenseless receivers or illegal contact after 5 yards, etc.), it always takes defenses a period to adjust. Whether they adjust for it within this season is the question though.