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Is Mixon all that?


#1

I have Mixon in one of my leagues and I keep getting trade offers for him. What do you guys think about his value? Is he a top 5 RB in the next two years?


#2

i have held onto the belief that as long as he is on that team with that head coach, he will be a low end RB2. but, the hype around him can get a lot of value in trades. so for the right price, i would 100% do it.


#3

No, I don’t think he is top 5, but I think he can be around number 10 for rbs.


#4

No. She’s all that.


#5

I also have Mixon in one of my leagues. I value him highly but it would totally depend on the offer for him. This coming year I don’t see him as a top 5 RB but I do see him improving to a low end RB1. Marvin Lewis is a horrible coach but he will hopefully gone after this season.

If Mixon lives up to his talent he could easily be the next Le’veon bell. He’s an incredible talent who has all the tools to be a top 5 RB in the NFL.


#6

Out of interest what sort of offers are you getting or would you accept for Mixon? The Mixon owner in my league (dynasty 0.5PPR, 12 team) is weak at RB with Mixon/Ajayi as his main two which if things pan out for the other Eagles RB’s and Marvin continues to waste Mixon’s talents will leave him in a tough spot this year and going forward. He’s just a player I’m watching to maybe buy low on if he struggles early on as his owner will be in a bad spot and potentially panic trade so just interested to see the kind of price now so i have an idea - i don’t think this is his peak value but it’s a good mid/high point as the hype is there that he’ll get a ton of volume


#7

I’m an OU guy and watched every play from his college career, so I can tell you that the talent is definitely there. I compared him to Bell coming out, which sounds ludicrous, but go back and watch his college tape; the dude is a goddamn stud and a fantastic receiver out of the backfield.

That said, I’m not touching him with the current unimaginative, old-ass regime there in Cincy; and Marvin Lewis is probably going to die on the job at the age of 90 like a supreme court justice, so he will remain criminally underused for the foreseeable future.

He’s probably a deep stash who would thrive in a few years if the Bengals stop trying to Bengal and bring in some young blood to keep up with the times. But they’ll probably just hire John Fox.


#8

I have Mixon in my dynasty league, and I’ll put it like this; Unless someone is willing to give me value equal to a top 5 RB, I’m not trading him. I would not have traded him for the 1.02 pick in this year’s rookie draft, that’s for sure. Too few RBs can do it all, and Mixon can. He’s an excellent receiver, he has size, he’ll run between the tackles, he’s fast, and he’s young! He’s a 3-down back in most systems, and sooner or later he will boom. Also – he was PFF’s 16th ranked RB overall last season, and his line is much improved. There’s good reason to be excited.


#9

let me ask you this… if i have mixon, and you have melvin gordon, would you do a straight up 1 for 1 trade?


#10

I would accept Mixon for Gordon, yes! Gordon is the product of a strong offense while individually being fairly inefficient. Given that he’s on the last year of his deal, I don’t trust he’ll be re-signed. Chargers are also notorious for having RBs who exclusively deal in the passing game, and Ekeler’s returning with the addition of the rookie Justin Jackson. I still like Gordon more this season, but long-term I’d definitely just take Mixon. Talent-wise, he’s just on a whole other level, IMO. He’s worth the risk!


#11

Ekler killed me last year, getting those goal-line carries. I would hesitate just because of that memory. I have PTSD from being Eklered.


#12

thats interesting because to me, that would be insane. and basically because i believe most of what you said isnt true. gordon wasnt inefficient, he had a bad o line. an o line they tried to improve, but got hit by the injury bug. even with that he still was hitting 3.9 a carry, which is acceptable, just you want more. i think there is zero chance they let him go. he is effective for what has been given to him, catches the ball, has a nose for the endzone (24 TDs in the last 2 years) and blocks well. ekler is a 3rd down guy for them, and thats it. i mean gordon was their best RB by a long shot, and their second best WR too. i also dont think he is all that much more talented than gordon. i mean, he is more talented, but i wouldnt say on another level. just a step up in some areas. so i like him long term, and short term. where mixon has the chance to be good long term, but a lot has to happen for that to go down. i need to get in a league with you so i can trade you mixon lol.


#13

Lol… I’m a risk taker – I will admit! Another factor, though, is Rivers age. This Chargers roster is as strong as it’s been since the Schottenheimer days, and their expectations are sky high! So either they win it all, leaving the door open for a “walking into the sunset” moment for Rivers, or they way underachieve, leaving Rivers vulnerable to replacement. Either way, I give him two more seasons – tops. By that point, Gordon will be nearly spent while Mixon just enters into his prime. I know I’m being insanely optimistic here (or pessimistic from a Gordon perspective), but I just see numerous ways for Mixon to ascend to top 5 status for a good stretch. I don’t see that with Gordon, and I’d rather assume risk now and get Mixon while he’s moderately attainable than to wait and have him be a Lev Bell-type where he’s just not possible to acquire. Gordon will never be Gurley or Bell or DJ, IMO… But Mixon very well could. And so for me, that’s the basis for how I perceive his overall value.


#14

now that, is the only real concern i have. rivers age. and who replaces him when he goes? could be better, better chance of it being worse. although i disagree about in 2 years gordon will be spent. he will only be 27 with 3 good years left, and 3 probably decent years. he doesnt have a whole lot on the speedometer so i expect him to be good for a while.

as for being a risk taker, you really do have to be sometimes, for the exact reason you laided out. how else do you get the bells of the world? and in that sense, i agree you should take risks. im a big believer in listening to others advice, but making your own choices from that. and although i whole heartedly diagree lol, if youre right it will be one of those times you get to fist bump into the sunset haha. im also a big melvin gordon believer, and have been for years so im a little biased. because i think he really could reach that top level. i think he is damn damn close. i havnet finished my official RB rankings yet, but im pretty sure he is going to land at number 4 behind bell, gurley, and zeke. some people will call me crazy for that, so i know a little bit of how you feel with mixon haha.


#15

I fully agree! You have to go with your own gut. I use other people’s advice to guide me towards players or for tips on what may be on the horizon, but after that I dig in and do my own research. It’s the only way I can lose in peace, because I can at least stomach taking risks I believe in and failing than to take guys I don’t believe in and being double-disappointed.

Not that Gordon is in that class of guys I don’t believe in. I do agree with you on his ability and I do like him quite a bit. I just knit-pick on where I think he could fail vs. what I see as a possibility for Mixon. Last year I took Devonta Freeman and Demarco Murray in redraft because consensus was so high, despite my own misgivings, and got way burned! That hurt… Because I had to suffer with a squad I didn’t even believe in. Mixon, I still do… Even with Mr.Lameduck himself – Marvin Lewis – running the show.

The Cordy Glenn trade is promising, as is the Billy Price pick. Overall, I think the arrow is pointing way up, and I’m more scared of moving Mixon and living to regret it than I am keeping him and chancing another rough season. Fingers crossed, though! lol


#16

I was HUGE on the Mixon hype train and acquired him in my main (.5 PPR) Dynasty league mid-season. After watching him, and the Bengals, more closely from week 9 (except for week12, amiright!!!) on I just lost it. Lewis is… well I don’t need to say it, everyone knows. Then you have to remember Lewis’ apparent LOVE for Gio. Gio will always have a part in this offence for as long as his body will allow it and as long as Marvin Lewis is there. This offseason I started trade talks with another owner for Keenan Allen and thought I had the requested ask filled, then he sprung on me that he would need Mixon in a deal to send Allen to me. His roster already included Bell and Cook, so I was a little hesitant but got him to include smooth Kenny G and we struck a deal. Point of my post, Mixon’s value is sky high right now. Will he ever reach the level of what’s being projected right now? Perhaps, he does have the raw talent. But if you’re a Mixon owner and have the chance to upgrade your roster, you can’t deny that his value is higher than his output (to date).

For reference, my RBs prior to this deal; Zeke, Mixon, Lamar, D Foreman, Ekeler, Chris Thompson. A little weaker without Mixon, but my WR arsenal is now Julio, Allen, Fitz (3 of the top 5 WRs in half PPR last season), Amari, Edelman, Doctson and RAnderson. It’s a 2RB, 2WR, 2 flex league and post Mixon deal I believe in my roster more than prior.


#17

This is such a great question.

So easy to feel burned after his rookie season – especially if some decent draft capital was spent on him. I remember keeping Antonio Brown after his 2011 season (123 targets - 10 more than Pitt WR1 Mike Wallace), and feeling burned when AB’s stats regressed in his 3rd season (2012). Felt there were better options to keep at WR heading into 2013, especially after feeling burned… and that was a big mistake.

As others have said (and i remember @AndyHolloway / Mike / Jason all saying last year), Marvin Lewis hates rookies. Why play your most talented players when you can play older guys instead? Fortunately, this no longer applies to Mixon. And Hill is gone (and all 37 carries he had). The big question is Gio.

Cincy’s O-Line was rather terrible last year. It’s improved. At least somewhat. If they can reliably stay in a few more games, that’s going to lead to several more carries a game. (They won week’s 16 & 17, which don’t help all that much in Fantasy. They were 5-9 otherwise.) That would mean fewer carries for Gio too. That’s assuming he’s more of the 3rd/passing down RB.

What’re my convictions about Mixon? He had 47% of Cincy’s carries as a rookie. Most elite, elite RBs don’t get north of 2/3 of their team’s carries. (Gurley 61%, Hunt 67%, LeSean 59%, with the outlier being Lev Bell’s 73%.) And Cincy had a low, low carry total last season.

Say they bump Mixon up to 60% of carries, and the team jumps from 377 to 425 total – still way below last year’s league average of 489. With no improvement in his efficiency, that puts him at ~900yards rushing on the season, or 14th in the league last year. Improve his yards per carry and get him a few more TDs, and you’re talking high odds for a low-end RB1 as a baseline.


#18

Excellent breakdown! That’s essentially where I stand as well. I have Mixon and don’t intend on moving him any time soon. His college tape shows a running-back who can quite literally do it all. He was tracking passes 40 yards deep and catching it in stride. He’s a very gifted player who was in a predictably unwinnable situation last year. This year, he’ll have full control. I’d be surprised if at season’s end we’re not looking at him as a top 10 dynasty pick.