TL;DR - take Chase.
I can see the upside in taking the trade. Najee and Chase are pretty close in scoring in my leagues. Both are young. Myers looks to be pretty solid and is building a connection with an emerging QB. Chase had a bananas last game, but overall he has some real boom/bust…rather ceiling/floor games.
Here’s a bit of interesting (?) numbers I was looking at.
In my full PPR league over 16 games, Chase had 18.75 ppg, Jakobi had 11.08ppg (including a 0 game) and Harris had 18.2ppg. Of those games, Chase was below his average 9 of 16, Jakobi was 8 of 16, and Harris was 8 of 16. I’d expect people to have 50/50, and while it’s close to Chase it shows he had bigger boom games pulling his average up. I am not about taking away someone’s best game, but it is worth noting Chase’s last game was more than 1/6th, and nearly 1/5th his total points. In perspective, if we pull out that last game he was sitting on 16.29ppg over the first 15. That doesn’t sound like a huge difference and still above the 16 game pace for Myers, but it is interesting. It also makes split still 9 of 15 games which still underlines his ceiling games are pulling up his weekly average. Lastly for starter WRs, 6 of 16 games were over 20 which seems to be a solid week and only 3 of 16 are below 10 which is typically not a great week. Definitely very good.
Harris also has 3 weeks below and 7 weeks above that threshold.
Okay, back to my thoughts. Looking over the data for this year it looks like from a points perspective you’d be ahead by taking the trade. But that’s a pretty cold take. It’s fair to presume based on history that you will be getting many more years out of Chase than Harris. Jakobi will mix in there as well to help balance out a little falloff, but not making up the guesstimated point difference.
The big difference is how it could impact your weekly. Despite the point gain of the two players versus the one, how likely are you to play both of them? I like Jakobi but I’m not sure he’s definitively better than your other WRs. He would be great depth, but not a sure-fire weekly starter. Chase absolutely will be. So weekly you are really only getting points from Harris. Jakobi is important WR depth for BYE weeks.
I suspect Chase is still in the league after both the other pieces are gone, and likely playing with a young stud QB. That matters.
I think Chase might have put up some of his best numbers. That is, it’ll be tough to get better by an appreciable amount. He could, no doubt, but he will have Higgins / Boyd and they are not slouches. I think you’ll get a good/higher floor and some big ceiling games. Just know he most likely will not be just winning weeks on his own. Think Doug Baldwin with Lockett on SEA. Huge boom weeks and then WR3 weeks. Mike Evans does this often as well.
I would expect Chase to get better at his craft being a rookie this year, but I’m not sure that just means tonnes more points are definitely in store. IE: Jefferson is only up 34 points from his 16 games last year, and that is WITH Thielen missing multiple games. Now I’ll take the 2+ points per week average, but that is not a massive shift. I only put this out there to try and keep expectations in check. I would expect Harris/Meyers to go up a bit more next year than what we see from Chase. This does not mean they are “better” but that their situation should improve which ought to lead to more points. I’m not sure how Chase gets a substantially better situation next year.
I’m not sure how to value that, but as a rough I’ll use Meyers. As Jones gets better/settled in I could see Meyers jumping from WR 31 to WR19, a back half WR2. The point difference this year is is DJM with 221. That an even 50 more points, or +3.125ppg. Again, not a huge difference but a boost. Harris with a more effective PIT offense would be scary as his efficiency was bad w/ no fear of Big Ben. Improvements there could make him a monster.
Ultimately, I think there are reasons why you would/not make the trade. For me, I’d stay with Chase. I always want the best player, and in this case it’s close between Chase/Harris. The biggest factor (barring injury) is length of time in the league. I think Chase will be useful longer and that matters in dynasty. I think you’d be fine from a weekly points for the next couple years, but at the point Harris starts likely falling off Chase should still be productive. Personally, I also believe RB is easier to replace and come along more often. I just wanted to layout why and bring some counter points to show how I got there.
Not saying this is right, but it’s how I thought about it and why I’d take Chase.