Josh Allen or Jameis Winston?

Should I play Jameis Winston or Josh Allen?

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I’m in 12 team PPR 4 point and I have them both and Jameis is in my starting lineup and will probably stay there
I’m hoping for a big game from my QB and I think Evans and Godwin just make his ceiling this week higher.

Both have difficult matchups and are projected to have tough weeks in my QB model. Winston is projected to be the QB17 and Allen the QB24. Both also have top-5 potential despite their matchups. However, as I wrote in my streaming post this week, Allen has outperformed expectation over the last six weeks by almost two full points compared to his full-season stats, and it seems that level-up is going to hold. So I view him as more of a QB10-14, with a decent rushing floor. Given that they both have the same big game potential, in this case I would go against my projection and play Allen.

Note that if you can only roster one, it switches to Winston for me. He’s projected to be the QB6 Weeks 15-16, and Allen is projected to be the QB23 those weeks. Despite his strong recent production, that difference is too big and I would want Winston, even to the extent that I’d play him this week over my slightly-preferred option of Allen.

My Week 14 QB model is below for reference. Hope that helps. Good luck!

-Dan
Please check out my Week 14 streaming post where I provide weekly and rest-of-season rankings, scoring projections and waiver recommendations for QBs, TEs and DSTs. Comments and feedback are welcome. Thanks!