I have Kamara and someone has offered me zek for a 1 to 1 is this a good deal for me?
Take it and run
PPR or standard? Redraft, dynasty or keeper league?
Probably doesn’t matter as zeke will get guaranteed volume and kamara will get touches but not as much as zeke.
Zeke all day
What leagues do you play in that has all of these morons walking up to you asking you to rob them? Can I get an invite? All I see is you making posts with these incredibly lobsided trades.
Not sure how this is even a question. Accept and run away. The format doesn’t even matter. Accept this now.
I’m just in multiple leagues and some have 12 players and some have 6 so the 6 league gets kinda loaded
Ah I c. The trade makes even less sense to me then. Positional advantages are huge so no way I’d give up a top 2 dynasty RB.
If this is for 6 leagues, than its ALL about positional advantages. Everyone is going to be stacked at every position so you gotta take advantages where you can. in 8 man leagues or less, guys like Gronk and Rodgers rise in value dramatically for me.
Depth isn’t as important and the positional edge you get from those guys is extremely valuable.
Is your league PPR? 1/2PPR?
What’s the cost for your keepers?
Zeke is going to probably have low-40s targets. Kamara very well could have 100 again.
Zeke has a good shot at having the most carries in the league this season… but the top receiving backs cut way into those results (and some like Lev, DJ, Gurley surpass him), though, because Zeke just hasn’t developed into that kind of player (yet?). Especially in full PPR.
Just a matter then of whose upside you trust more… and what kind of opportunity their team is going to give them. Dallas could easily be a 6 win team this year… and that’ll cut into the game script for a guy like Zeke. Meanwhile, most think the Saints should find themselves with 10+ wins pretty easily… which means many more games where the NO offense gets to do whatever the heck they want.
Zeke had 38 targets in 10 games last year. Low 40s, they lost Jason Witten, and you think he’s only going to get targets in the low 40s?
Frankly, I don’t think this is close, regardless of format.
Don’t forget that Zeke had a whopping 322 carries the previous year… and only 40 targets for 32 catches.
We’ve only got a data set of two years for Zeke, so it’s a pretty imperfect science. If you want to just take his entire game log, you end up with 78 targets in 25 games… or giving him just under 50 targets if he plays a full 16 games.
But, I have trouble assuming any guy is going to play a full 16 when I stat out their season. This doesn’t mean I’m predicting injuries. I’m applying the same math to all the guys I stat out. What math:
In 2017, 9 of the Top 25 Fantasy RBs (1/2PPR) missed at least one game (36%).
In 2016, 15 of the Top 25 Fantasy RBs missed at least one game (60%).
Average the two, and it’s basically a coin flip (48%) that any top RB will miss at least one game somewhere. (And dont’ forget, these are the guys who ended up as the Top 25 guys, end of season.) How many games should these guys be expected to play?
In 2017, the Top 25 Fantasy RBs missed a total of 17 games. The expected total games played for any one of them is therefore 15.3.
In 2016, the Top 25 Fantasy RBs missed a total of 34 games. Expected play total: 14.6.
Combined that number ends up with an expected total of any one Top RB playing just under 15 games in a season. And again: that’s looking at results – the best case scenario, ignoring where we really are right now: predraft, where the 1.01 was David Johnson last year. (I don’t feel like re-doing the above stats for the top RBs by ADP the past two seasons, but it’s gonna be a lot worse.)
Note: If you’re not ok with the larger sample size of the Top 25, then lets go with guys who ended up in the Top 12 – an RB1 – the past two seasons. The number jumps from 14.98 games played to… 15.08. But again, that’s looking at results, not preseason ranked Top RBs.
A lot of numbers, I know. But that’s where I end up with Zeke play ~15 games. Taking past results (from above), that puts him at 46-47 targets on the season. Assuming the Cowboys are the same Cowboys from 2015 and 2016. But…
I don’t take the approach that the Cowboys having fewer weapons equates to Zeke having more opportunity and better results. The opposite in my mind. Dallas is just worse. Their D ranked 19 last season… and is consensus #25 this year. They’ve lost Dez and Witten. Dak is a much bigger question mark going into this season than 2017… None of that gives me confidence in Zeke.
The above sounds a lot like more pass-first game scripts and more stalled drives, meaning fewer overall opportunities for Zeke in worse situations. (8 of the Top 12 RBs last season were on playoff teams. Overall team quality matters.) And there’s just an upper limit to market share of carries on a team. Lev managed a freaskishly high 73% of Pitt’s carries last season – arguably in part because Ben doesn’t run too much anymore. The typical high water mark for Top Top RBs is 65-70%. And the total number of carries for a team is pretty well correlated to the number of wins a team has. A worse team means worse game scripts which means fewer carries.
Anyway, all of the above is why I’m less high on 2018 Zeke than a lot of people. My season long stats have him at RB 8 or 9 in 1/2PPR, which includes well over 1300 rushing yards. (That’s all just numbers spitting out numbers. My feelings aren’t baked into that – the difference between stats and ranks for me.) Which probably offends everyone in Texas, but whatever. It’s just what the math said for me.
Some issues with this analysis. The 2016 Cowboys were very different than the 2018 team is likely to be. Using Zeke receiving stats in that season to project forward is dubious at best. I get that the 10 game sample size from last year is small, but it’s far more likely to be similar to this year than two years ago - especially when you factor in the fact that 2016 was his rookie year.
As for opportunity/game scripts, I take exception to the idea that losing Dez and Witten makes the offense worse. Dez has been garbage for a while and Witten was at best a league average TE the last few years. I think it’s at least as likely the offense is better this year, not worse, especially considering how much better they were with Zeke than without him. And even if game the game script is worse, that also likely means more check downs.
I really don’t think this is close, even in PPR. Zeke is as safe (top 24 RB 100% of game and RB1 86% of games in 2016 and was a RB1 90% of the time in 2017 - that is the elite of the elite), as it gets and has as high a ceiling as anyone.
As for Kamara, he is due major regression from a TD/efficiency perspective. He may make up some ground by getting more touches, but it’s extremely unlikely he beats last year’s stats.
This games missed math you’re talking about above is pretty irrelevant when comparing Zeke to Kamara. By your own logic, Kamara was also a top 12 back. In fact he actually did miss a game last year due to concussion. Zeke has never missed a game due to injury. Unless you are somehow forecasting suspension for Zeke again, Kamara should in fact have higher injury risk than Zeke. But I don’t even try to forecast that. So for relative comparison purposes, the math you outlined is probably irrelevant.
And in terms if small sample size, you completely contradict yourself. On the one hand, you use Zeke’s small sample size to predict that he’ll only have 32 catches, which seems absurd given how different the team is. His routes run per play has jumped up significantly from 2015 to 2017. Something to the tune of 15-20% if I remember correctly. It would make logical sense that there should be more targets coming his way, especially given the depleted WR core of the cowboys. 32/40 is a low projection considering he already had that many targets in 10 games. On the other hand, you use a single season stat to predict that Kamara will have 100 targets? You can’t have your cake and eat it too. Projections aren’t everything and just simply taking historical averages everywhere without considering the situation and changes is faulty math at best, especially when you only have a 1-2 year sample size for both. In fact, I agree with you that Kamara gets 100 targets because watching the games, that’s how they want to use him. But at the same time, I can see that Zeke is due for some increases in targets because of the trend of how the cowboys have been using him. Also, I can easily see him getting 350 and maybe 400 carries this season. The cowboys have clearly committed to the run game with their Oline. Not to mention Zeke is the 1st, 2nd and 3rd best option in the redzone and the dude eats. Extremely efficient redzone running back so TDs again are in his favor. Kamara is good to but he’ll be fighting with both Ingram and MT once they get in that area.
There are only 4 backs in the entire league that have the chance to get 400+ touches. And fantasy is about opportunity and talent. Zeke is superior in both so this is not even a close decision for me.
I am a big Kamara fan, and I do think things will be close but not necessarily match last year for him. I would definitely take Zeke…and I do not like DAL This is just pretty straight forward to me. It is admittedly hard to un-hear the hype on Kamara and he is really dazzling to watch, but Zeke is the choice for me.
Feels like my two posts are being taken a bit out of context.
My 1st post asked whether the league in question is 1/2PPR or PPR, noting that Alvin’s heavy passing usage means there should at least be a conversation between him and Zeke in those formats. I added that the quality of each team (and the Poster’s confidence in them) should have bearing too.
My 2nd post made no mention of Kamara; it wasn’t about him. It was responding to a question about Zeke’s targets, offering an explanation why I conservatively end up with him in the low 40s for 2018. Part of that explanation was showing how it’s tough to expect a full 16 games when stating a guy out. Any guy (including Kamara). That’s not a matter of projecting injuries or suspensions – just using past data to help inform my projections which make use of per game statistics.
Of Note: One big reason several top RBs miss 1 game has nothing to do with injury. It’s because their coach gives them a pass on Week17. Again, ya can’t reliably predict that. But it does happen. …as do injuries and suspensions. So when using per game statistics to project full season numbers, I take into account an “expected games played” for all players. (That’s irrelevant if someone has a method of producing season long projections without using per game statistics, but that’s not me.)
TL/DR – In neither post did I advocate whether to take Kamara or Zeke. I merely said that league format matters a lot for whether it’s worth a conversation… and then (overly) explained a small part of how I arrive at my rather conservative season long projections.
Another irrelevant point for fantasy football. Week 17 doesn’t count for anything in any competent league for the exact reason you have have stated here. So who cares if the top RBs miss a game due to that reason. Also, given your comments above, you made it seem like Zeke’s team wouldn’t be that great anyway so if anything, they would be struggling for that wild card spot so he in fact, is probably more likely to be playing most.
Appreciate the points but let’s keep things relevant for fantasy purposes. Much of this stuff you ran through above, bears no weight on deciding between the two RBs which is the question we’re trying to answer here.
I completely agree that Week 17 game stats should be irrelevant as it pertains to fantasy. Unfortunately, I don’t know a single fantasy analyst that backs Week 17 out of their season long projections. Wish they did!
That’s why you don’t just rely on projections when ranking between players. I put some weight on projections, much more on the players, rankings, situation, bunch of other factors. I use projections and quick math to see if something is viable or if I am overreaching on my own thoughts. Mainly cause even the best analysts only have like a 20-30% hit rate on their projections. Fantasy football is a crapshoot at best.
And another way to counter that, is to look at production on a per game basis. I find that data much more valuable. So games they don’t play don’t weight into the decision. And the per game carries, yards, TD for Zeke is about as steady as they come.
Love Kamara too, but when its down to those two, decision is a relatively easy one for me.
Yep, agreed. All of the above (from me) was about projections, not rankings. Very different things.