I have the option to keep Kareem Hunt in the 2nd round as the overall 19th pick in a 10-team PPR league. Is he worth keeping in this spot or do I let him go and see if someone else drops to me there? Other players that will not be available to pick in the first 2 rounds include Kamara, Davante Adams, & Hopkins.
in a vacuum, thats pretty easy. almost a 3rd for a guy who is going around pick 8, 9, 10. its not the best value, but you get a guy who will get 65% of the carries, on an offense that is lookin pretty damn good. lock up your low end RB1 for a better value. easy.
Keep Hunt no brainer at 19
I’m not nearly as high on Hunt as most, but I do think this is still fine value.
As for the KC offense, I think it COULD be very good, but I think the more likely scenario is that it’s high variance. Mahomes undoubtedly raises the ceiling (though, how much better could he be than Alex Smith last year), but I’m not sure there’s much of a floor there. He was considered raw coming out for a reason, and Smith has a long history of, at the very least, not killing you with mistakes.
its funny, cause a lot of people think smiths year last year is just unbeatable. its going to be hard to beat only 5 picks in a year, but the other parts of it really arnt. 4000 yards and 26 TDs are pretty standard, especially for a player like mahomes, the gunslinger type. BTW when i say standard, we spent a top 10 pick on him, so its standard for what is expected. granted, this will be his “rookie” season but if any type of person can do it, its someone with an arm like that.
and yeah he was raw coming out, but reid moved on for a reason. the guy that has spent more than 20 years grooming QBs, and has spend 100s of hours with film, and with mahomes himself, watching his every move last year, he was willing to move on from smith and he LOVED smith. if that doesnt tell you that mahomes is ready, then i dunno.
and the last piece of the puzzle is that hunts old RB coach is the new OC. people tend to look over that. i think a more steady run game is to be expected this year. which in the end helps mahomes. i honestly think people are sleeping on KC too much. which, as a KC fan im ok with.
The yardage and TD numbers are certainly replicable, though far from a forgone conclusion for a first year starter. I think the INTs are a big deal, though, especially for an RB (more turn overs means less possessions and higher probability of playing from behind, both of which tend to mean less carries). I also think the offense is just going to be more high variance in year one. You to 4000 yards and 26 TDs, but if it’s not consistent, it can really hurt you both in real and fantasy football.
To be clear, I’m heavily invested in the chiefs offense in dynasty. The upside is obvious, but I think people are ignoring real concerns for year 1.
oh its not ignored, more just a calculated risk. you stack that much talent on a team and give an arm like that the reins, and his stat potential is insane. like any QB, having a bunch of picks is a thing he could do. but i dont think its that high of a number. i have him stated at 30 TDs to 12 picks. granted thats over double what smith threw last year, but thats because just about EVERY QB doubles what smith throws in a year lol. i think his maxed out potential next year is also insane though. if everything goes right, and all about him is true and comes to fruition, 5000 yards+, 40 TDs, and 10 INTs. and i think his floor is 3300, 20 TDs, 16 INTs. thats if everything goes way wrong. BTW i dont think his maxed out potential would happe, or even be good for hunt. those numbers would almost for sure destroy hunts stats. although he could turn into 200 rushes and 70 catches in an offense like that.
but yeah, year 1 concerns i get. maybe its just my chiefs fanboy coming out, but i dont think its going to be nearly as bad as everyone seems to think. or maybe, its just my fanboy trying to convince me as well haha. cause i have my concerns. in fact, the only person on the chiefs i have been routinely getting is watkins. and thats because he is getting super disrespected and is dropping into the 6th and lower rounds, even though he is the WR1 on that team. i do like my values though.
30 and 12 is veeerrryy ambitious for a first year starter. Especially one not taken in the top 3. 5000 yards or 40 TDs is likely a pipe dream. This stats is for rookies, so it’s not the best comparison, because Mahomes isn’t technically a rookie, but the rookie record for yards is 4374. The rookie passing TD record is 26. The only other first year starter I can think of that got to of those numbers is Kurt Warner, and I don’t know if he really counts. Also, as good as the Cheifs weapons are, they are not on the same level as the Greatest Show in Turf Rams. Warner’ s stats that year were 4353, 41, and 13. If Mahomes comes close to any of those numbers, I’ll be completely floored (and ecstatic, considering how heavily I’m invested in the team in dynasty).
I’d be over the moon with Aaron Rodgers first year starting numbers: 4038, 28, 13, but that seems like the absolute ceiling year one.
I just think there is a cap on the upside in year one, and much, much more week to week variance that has to be accounted for.
this will be his first year starting, but he does have a year under his belt competing with NFL talent. i know 5000 40 and 10 is never going to actually happen, i just see that as his absolute ceiling because if all goes right, he could air it out every play to hill, watkins, and conley. all who run sub 4.35. in no way do i think that will happen, its just possible with the raw speed they have with his arm.
my stats are based off what i think the D will do honestly. i think they will struggle at times, and put mahomes in a spot where he has to throw. pushing the TD numbers up. i also dont have a yardage number to give him, cause i think its damn near impossible to guess. best guess would be 3800 yards.
as for greatest show on turf, yeah im not compairing him to that. because i know that if mahomes does that well, kareem hunt wont. and the whole reason they were so damn good is they had faulk putting up 1400 yards rushing with 80+ catches. and that made it possible for warner to do his thing and produce like that. if mahomes does that, you can lock it in its because the D is so awful that he has to go back to his texas days and just sling it. but im really not thinking thats going to happen.
honestly, take anything i say about mahomes with a grain of salt. im usually pretty good at separating my fandom from fantasy football, but this guy is too exciting to me. he is the most exciting thing to come to KC since Joe Montana. and i was only 3 when that happened so i dont even remember it. but, i also think my excitement is founded on what very well could be true. that kind of pure are talent, with the speed around him and pure skill watkins and kelce have, along with hunt setting a pace and also tearing one off every now and then, the balance is exciting on offense. and this D is better than people think, i just think there will be a lot of growing pains. i dunno, i have high expectations which i hate to do, but i cant stop this time haha.
You have a right to be excited. The talent on offense is obvious, and potentially overwhelming if Mahomes develops like we hope. I just felt like someone needed to rein it in and provide the voice of reason for OP, haha.