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Keep 1 - Standard league


#1

Morning fellow footballers was looking for some advice on a standard league keeper. First year with a keeper league and you get to keep the player where they were drafted in the prior year

A. Brown - Round 1
D. Murray - Round 4

I will be sitting at pick 9 this upcoming season.


#2

I’d take Brown here, 1.09 is a really good value for him. Since its only 1 keeper, there will be plenty of good options still available in the 4th.


#3

Antonio Brown for the 1.09 is a no brainer to me


#4

Agree with Antonio Brown. If you kept Demarco there are always injury concerns and possible loss of work to Henry. And as a plus, with the rule change allowing TD celebrations back, Brown is going to be very fun to root for.


#5

Shockingly enough I’m leaning towards Murray here. At 1.09 you can still snag Mike Evans or AJ Green who can easily have as good a year as Brown. They probably won’t, but what you have to keep in mind is Big Ben is horrible on the road, therefore will Brown not be that great on the road as well? Also, Bryant is back, so will he eat into Brown’s production? In addition to this, I’m assuming your 4th round pick is probably 4.04 (12 team league) so Murray at 4.04 when his ADP is 2.01 is far more valuable than Brown at 1.09 when his ADP is 1.04/1.05. I understand Murray is an injury risk and Henry is knocking on the door, but the Titans have proven they like Murray, and as long as he stays healthy he can be a top 5 back. I just look at it I would rather have AJ Green and Murray than Antonio Brown and Eddie Lacy (currently 4.03 on the list I’m looking at). Not to mention, with all these keepers in your league, fourth round players are really probably closer to 5th or 6th, whereas at 1.09 you can still get a solid play. Just food for thought. Sorry to play Devil’s Advocate. Also, I have to make these prediction on who is available at certain points in the draft assuming there are no keepers (since I have no way of knowing who is kept or not). Slight adjustment will be needed when you look at who is being kept, but the general idea stays the same.


#6

i actually disagree with everyone so far. its a tough year for top end RBs, and to get one for a 4th? hell yes. you can still get a strong WR for the 1.09. and the 2.04. the only question if you keep him is, who will be available, and will any of them be worth a keeper spot? because murray is on a short time clock.


#7

Where do you see adp of 2.01? On MFL Murray’s Adp for May non-ppr drafts is 33.
The argument that Ben affects Brown’s output is valid, but Bryant’s presence in the past has opened up the passing game and led to higher scoring for the team as a whole.
I agree that Murray has upside of a top 5 RB but I think he has been less consistent historically than Brown and there is more potential for him to lose ground this year based on players around him than for Brown. Brown also has the upside to literally win a week for you, paired with the floor of being a highly targeted and extremely talented receiver.
And I do like the idea of keeping your options open in the early rounds but I’m still on the side of Brown for the time being in this situation.


#8

That said, If you are allowed to make trades, I’d suggest that you look into trading away Brown to move up in the 1st and elsewhere even if you know you want Murray over Brown


#9

Don’t get me wrong, I totally get this argument. There could be top level talent at 1.09. However, a lot of those guys might also be keepers. So not only are you giving up AB to keep your 1.09, but you’re not positive what talent will be there after keepers. I’m all about security in the first round, and AB is one of the safest picks the last few years, and at 1.09 he is a real solid pick.


#10

I agree 100%. I think it all comes down to who are the top 10 best available after keepers are picked (which you usually don’t know until draft day). If this information is available ahead of time, and you can assume you will land a top WR talent at 1.09 I go Murray. Either way, I think this argument is 50/50. I agree with everyone on here that Brown is a safer pick and would never knock anyone for keeping him, I just think the value for Murray is greater (but the risk is as well). Dangerous game this fantasy football is.

Also, I used fantasy football calculator. Did no other research other than this so very limited resource of course.


#12

I’d go with D. Murray. Great Value for him in Round 4. I guess it depends on what players the other members of your league pick to keep, as per the value of other players available. You should be able to pick up a solid WR1 in the first round with the ninth pick.


#13

I’d go Murray, as well. Great value as others have pointed out.


#14

Thanks for that in depth detail. I’m feeling the same way about the value of keeping Murray in the 4th. I will be the 9/10 to reveal my keeper before the draft so I will have some time to think about it and pick based on who everyone else is keeping


#15

As Forty9Giants mentioned, odds are you have a pretty good idea who all of the other teams’ keepers are. With that knowledge, you’ll have a pretty clear idea of where their attention will be turned with their first few picks… and therefore what options you’ll have at the 1.09… as well as at the 2.04 (and the 3.09 & 4.04 if you want to do additional homework).

Do a few quick 4-round mock drafts – taking into account other teams keepers (and resulting needs) – and see what scenario typically leads to the best outcome. On the surface getting the 2.01 talent at 4.04 (Demarco) seems the best deal (vs. 1.04 for 1.09), but playing this out as a mock draft will reveal if that’s true.

Basically, it comes down to the big variable of who all of the other teams are keeping… and if you can correctly plan ahead for their keepers, you’ll have a well-informed choice as to who yours should be.