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Keep Collins or David Johnson?


#1

Hey guys, in a 10 team .5 PPR league, I can keep DJ for obviously a 1st rounder, or Alex Collins for a 16th… Is Collins worth that value? Or should I just go with the tried and true David Johnson?


#2

Do you know your draft spot?


#3

Sorry, forgot to add, I don’t know my draft spot yet. I’m 4th to choose my draft spot, so if I want to, I could snag one of those top 4 picks…


#4

It’s a tough one, but knowing you’ll have 1 through 4 I’d probably throw DJ back and keep Collins. I read a few articles in local Baltimore publications that folks think thanks to new injury issues (a recent hamstring issue has him out of practices and caused him to miss the Hall of Fame Game), he’s no longer seen as a lock to make the roster. The Athletic went so far to suggest he could be firmly on the pre-season bubble.

As an RB2, I’m getting more comfortable by the day with Collins. I’d rather have that value than DJ in the first. I’d say your odds are better than even that you’ll get him at 4 anyways.


#5

If you end up with one of the top 2 picks keep Collins and draft either Saquan or Johnson.

If you know one or two of the top RBs or WRs are going to be available (Bell, Gurley, Zeke, AB, Beckham, Hopkins) keep Collins, pick the best available at number 1-4.

If you know that DJ will be the best available and you have pick 3 or 4, that is where it can get a bit tough. DJ is a stud, but the O line is worrisome and the team could be bad. Collins looks to be the starting running back for the Ravens, not too worries about competition from Allen and Dixon. And you can’t beat the value of getting a starting RB in the 16th round.

I would roll the dice, keep Collins (the value is just too good) and draft best player available in whatever spot you end up with.


#6

I was thinking… If DJ is the top dog in free agency - I’d still keep Collins but I’d take the 8th or 9th spot in the draft… I’m really a fan of the end of the first this year. Sounds like he gets to choose any of the available draft spots.


#7

Why are you a fan of the end of the first? I miss out on the elite RBs…


#8

Because I feel that there’s enough value late in the first that piecing together a championship team shouldn’t require one of the “elite” backs. My best team last year was from the 9th position, I drafted Freeman and he ended up on my bench in the finals. (granted I traded Deshaun Watson undrafted for LeSean McCoy in non-keeper rounds)

I guess I’d rather have 2 top 12 players AND draft near the turn.


#9

I would feel that way in a redraft league, but in a keeper league with the talent pool already depleted if I have a choice of one of the top 4 spots I take it and get one of the best unkept players available right off the bat.


#10

I still maintain that I’d rather have two of those 12 best players. I’m already keeping good players (one hopes anyways) and having the 9th and 11th best players on the board is more valuable to me than the 2nd best player then waiting until 2.09 to pick again. Just my preference of course.


#11

Thanks guys! I gotta do some mocks and see how both of those positions work out for me. But thanks for the help!


#12

everyone drafts differently. I’ve drafted successfully from all over the board, and I’ve failed spectacularly from the 1 spot so…

I’ve always said it, and I maintain: you can’t win your league in the first 3 rounds, but you can certainly lose it!