Keeper Conundrum!

Hey Footclan! I play in a 10-team standard, single keeper league.
These are my 3 options and the round I would get them:
Mack (7th) or Kittle (8th) or A Jones (9th)

What do I do?? Personally attached to Mack and Kittle, and feel like RB was always the go when keeping, but TE is just a wasteland after the top 3 this year so I’m leaning towards my boy Kittle.
Drafting at 9th spot this year (so would likely miss Kittle before my 3rd pick).

Any help would be much appreciated!
Cheers

Kittle for sure, but it’s a toss up between Mack and Jones. I would personally go Jones but don’t think you can go wrong either way.

Yeah I think Mack and Jones both have a lot of upside but a ??? as well.
Kittle on the other hand should be a consistent option. 8th round is solid value

Exactly I think both a similarly talented and would go around the same ADP, so if you can keep Jones in the 9th it will free you to grab another a more talented player in the 7th instead of the 9th.

I’m in the take your value boat… Mack isn’t significantly better than Jones… Kittle/Jones… don’t overthink it

Choose between the RB’S in standard those guys are going to be the goaline backs. A lot of kittle’s points came from big plays (3 50+ yd TDS)

Look at it this way, in a 10-team league Mack would go around the 3rd round and Kittle would probably be around the 3rd-4th round also, so I don’t think the value of one over the other is really that huge (both would be saving you a few rounds on their ADP).

For me, I’d still go Kittle but it’s not as much of a slam dunk as you might think. The drop off from Kittle to the next tier of TE is bigger than Mack to similar drafted RBs (at least in my opinion, in standard scoring). In a 10-team, you’ll have more opportunities to snatch quality running backs in your first 7 rounds… Basically this is a long way of saying I wouldn’t mind ending up with Marlon Mack, but I wouldn’t lose sleep over not keeping him - give me a top tier TE as a tie breaker.

So you can keep two of those three?

There’s always the caveat of who you think will be available for drafting in the first few rounds (for example, if the RB position is a wasteland because 8 of the top 10 backs are kept, maybe it’d be worth considering to keep both Mack and Jones and try and find value at the TE position elsewhere).

In terms of the best value, obviously getting a top 3 player at their position in the middle rounds is excellent value (Kittle in the 8th)

Of the two backs, I’d probably take Jones over Mack… I don’t see Mack having as much opportunity in the passing game with Hines playing so well on those late downs. Jones is an explosive runner in an explosive offense, and he shouldn’t have as much competition for touches

If it’s me, I’m going Mack. Getting someone who can be your RB2 that late is amazing. With 9 other people keeping someone, you probably won’t have a RB1 fall to you in the first round. There could be some value at WR, but if you end up with say Julio and Dalvin Cook as your picks, I would feel more confident with another RB already on my lineup, as opposed to getting to your 3rd round pick and looking at guys like Lamar Miller or Mark Ingram.

I’m just curious what your rational is for Mack over Jones. I think both are excellent backs, and Mack was certainly on the field more than Jones last year thanks to his suspension and a knee injury that knocked him out of the December Bears game after 7 snaps, but I think Jones is a bit more explosive and was used more in the passing game than Mack was.

I’d take either, but if I got to choose, I think I’d still go Jones.

I would be fine with Jones as well, but I think I just trust Mack more. Seeing how much they relied on him in the playoffs and how well he did, even if mostly against the Texans, was a great sign. Texans hadn’t allowed a single 100 yard rusher all season, then Mack comes in during the playoffs and puts 148 on them. The Colts showed a trust in him, and I think that carries over. Mack was also dealing with injuries early on and still ended the season very strong. I think he’ll factor a bit more in the passing game this year, but that upside is still limited thanks to Hines.

For Jones, if I knew he was going to be the primary back I’d be 100% in. Now there could be a new offense coming in, so it’s possible Jones does see the workload. It’s also possible Jamaal Williams just somehow forces his way onto the field.

It’s seriously a toss-up, and I would not be opposed to getting the extra 2 rounds of value and keeping Jones. But I just feel that the tier of RB that is going to be there at 9 or 12 will be that tier of guys who have RB1 upside, but a bottom tier RB2 floor, or worse. In that situation I feel I trust Mack more, I trust the offense in Indy right now, and the o-line. It’s just a safer pick if you ask me, even if Jones has slightly more upside.

I won’t argue with the logic, I’d be comfortable with either, and to be truthful, I’d actually consider throwing Kittle back if I could keep both Mack and Jones - I’m not 100% convinced that Kittle is going to just replicate his success from last year (I’m not predicting a massive drop off but given that I could have two backs with back end RB1 upside I’d be comfortable pairing a backend TE1 like Olsen with one of the post-hype guys like Gisecki in case he breaks out in year 2).

Sorry I should have been clearer - just the one keeper and those are my 3 best options.
Appreciate all the feedback! Given me plenty to consider.
As everyone has said Mack and Jones are pretty close, I’m worried about Williams more than I’m worried about Hines, but the new offense could mean Jones is an absolute steal in the 9th round.
I know Kittle had a crazy amount of YAC, which the Ballers explained is not something that typically translates year to year…so I expect a slight drop off but with Jimmy G coming back who knows, it could even out and he gets a couple more TDs.
If I keep Kittle, I probably would try to double up on RB’s for my first 2 picks (more options at WR and my league will target RBs like crazy), but if I go Mack or Jones, I’m more likely to go a combo of RB/WR and then target TE late…so I guess I need to work out which team will look the best at the end.
Thanks again!

I should reiterate, by Jones’ new offense I just mean it won’t be the same as last year. I know LaFleur doesn’t fill many with confidence based on how the Titans RBs worked, which is why I lean towards Mack, but Jones is the better talent and might break away

LaFluer was also the OC for the 2017 Rams when Gurley had 2,000 total yards on 343 touches (279 on the ground and 64 receptions) and 19 total TDs.

I’m not suggesting Jones will be used similarly to Gurley’s season under LaFluer, but by the same token we can’t just assume that he’ll be used similarly to the Titans backs.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, and I believe Jones is a far superior back to the rest of the GB backfield, so I expect a larger share of the offense than some others do.

The only reason why I’m a little more cautious with Mack is that Hines proved to be such an asset on passing downs last year. In Dynasty, Mack has an advantage being a few years younger with a better long-term landscape in Indy than in GB - but even in that regards I feel we’re splitting hairs.

Well I clearly need to research LaFleur a bit more!
It is splitting hairs, which is why I’ll probably make the decision easier for myself and go Kittle lol

yea, in the end a 1 keeper league leaves plenty of targets in the first 30 picks who can be difference makers. I don’t think it’s an awful idea to try and own a top 3 player at their position - so Kittle definitely has value.