Keeper decision... Alex Collins or Marlon Mack

Our commish reactivated the league yesterday, and I took a look at my roster for the first time in a few months…

3 Keepers for 2018: Melvin Gordon for a 3rd round pick… Kamara for a 12th round pick… which leaves me choosing between Alex Collins for an 8th rounder, or Marlon Mack for a 15th round pick.

I’m tempted to try and trade Collins to one of the weaker rosters, and see if I can’t pick up an extra 9th or 10th round pick and keep Mack since he’s basically free and pure upside that late.

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Collins for an 8th sounds better to me. He has a tighter hold on the job and showed more last year then Mack.

Why would you trade Collins for a 10th, a worse pick? Could you possibly get a 6th or 7th? That is still a value for him - typically going 4th or 5th round.

You’re right, if I do trade him I need to ask for more… my brain is not in full fantasy mode yet. Still working off yesterdays beer.

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I would absolutely go with Mack and if you can trade Collins that is a bonus.

@itsChrisStacks Out of curiosity, what do you think the range of outcomes are for Collins and Mack?

With everything happening for the Colts, if Luck plays I think Mack can be a 14-17 back, with upside potential. I don’t trust the Ravens as much even with their offseason additions, they are still a Defensive minded team. I see Collins as a 17-24 back but without the up side possibility. Collins could be safer because there are a lot of “if’s” in Indy but the upside with Mack is greater to me.

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Thanks for clarifying.

I like this take, Collins floor is safer as a low end RB2 with upside to be maybe a mid-high end RB2 but i think 17-24 is about right. Mack could be a major bust as part of a three headed committee but could be a higher end RB2 than Collins if Luck plays and Mack is the majority share guy, especially as the pass catcher as that Colts team will be chasing games due to poor defense.

From a situation standpoint, with Gordon and Kamara locked up and RB1 and RB2 who will be consistent and great with Mack virtually for free i’m happy to take a little risk and grab some WR upside instead with the middle picks

This is exactly what I was thinking… Ive been looking at league rosters, and I’m probably not the only manager with at least 1 1st round calibre player being kept… I’ll be picking 7th, (because Kamara’s concussion knocked me out of the 1st round of the playoffs), so I’ll probably be looking at OBJ or Julio with my #1.

If i trade Collins I can sweep up a Guice or maybe a Penny with #2, and then just hammer away at WR and RB before taking a QB in the 10th or later.

Full agree and when you add in that context it makes even more sense, you could lock up three studs at this rate and there is hype for Collins so i’m sure someone will reach a little for him and you never know who else could fall to you in the other rounds, go for the aggressive play and keep Mack and go for it in the draft

I like Mack since he is basically free, Collins probably does have more upside but if you could trade him for a better pick, that’s even better. Need to remember the Ravens have yet to move on from Kenneth Dixon, there is a good chance he may take enough carries away from Collins to make him less effective this season.

Looking at only those two backfields:

  • Alex Collins, Kenneth Dixon, Javorius “Buck” Allen
  • Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Christine Michael, Robert Turbin

Here’s my thoughts:

  1. There is much more in question in Indy’s backfield purely based on the number of running backs involved. Although, I would expect one or two to be cut.
  2. Kenneth Dixon is still on a rookie deal. No reason to cut him up to this point.
  3. Between game 5 and 16 Collins only had one week under 10 carries (Avg 17). During the same time Allen had 8 weeks under 10 carries. Collins, last year, absolutely took the starting role; Allen became the 3rd down back. As a comparison Mack had only 2 games over 10 carries (10 & 11) due to Gore’s presence.
  4. Ravens did not draft an RB in 2018.
  5. Colts have a new coaching staff. We cannot use past results to predict future results.
  6. Ravens coaching staff is in place. While not guaranteeing accuracy, we can utilize past results to predict future results.