Kelce/Bell/Allen vs MT/Bell/Allen.
I wouldn’t be so quick to write that one off tbh. I love MT as much as the next guy but you need to think about this in terms of dropoffs and the positional advantage you gain from having an elite TE. The same argument I made for Gronk, I’ll make for Kelce this year. It’s all about replacement value.
Here is the scoring/finishes in half ppr format.
MT: WR6, 253 PPRpoints (However, if you remember, majority of this came from 2-3 huge blow up games he had early in the season)
KA: WR11, 212 PPR points (he was actually injured in the week 15 game so if you assume an average of ~15 PPR points, this number is actually closer to 230).
So the delta after accounting for adjustments above is about 20 points or roughyl 1.25 points per game.
Kelce: TE1, 243 PPR points. Would’ve finished as WR7. Dropoff from Kelce to anyone other than ertz and Kittle would’ve been ~50 points or over 3 points per game.
I think Kelce/MT ADP will be closer than most people think. MT is probably late 1st / early 2nd and Kelce should be mid 2nd at the latest, likely early 2nd. The positional advantage gained from getting WR1 production in your TE slot is incredibly valuable. And then there is the ancillary benefit which people don’t consider. You never have to worry about streaming TEs resulting in you wasting 2 roster slots on a TE. Given how limited/valuable roster slots are, this is a huge value.
And given the saints MO, they really aren’t the pass first offense anymore. They are a team that relies on their defense and running the ball. Bree’s isn’t airing it 550-600 times a season anymore. Not to mention Kamara is lethal out of the backfield and him and MT operate in similar areas of the field (MT primarily has success out of the slot in case you didn’t know).
The one counter point to Kelce is how this Hill scenario plays out. Part of Kelce’s success is because Hill stretches the field so much he creates a tonne of space between the numbers for Kelce to operate. If Hill gets suspended, Kelce becomes the top weapon and defenses will key in on him more. So that’s food for thought but if you really dig into it, I don’t think you can simply write off Kelce being worse for your team than MT.