Keeper Decisions and Trade Options

You have a team consisting of these key players:

  1. Michael Thomas
  2. LeVeon Bell
  3. Keenan Allen
  4. Patrick Mahomes
  5. Damien Williams

You get to keep 3 of them at no cost. You can trade any of them until training camp starts. 12 team, full PPR, 4 point Pass TDs.

Who do you keep? Who would you try to trade/trade for?

I’ve made one (hopeful) offer so far; Mahomes and KA for DeAndre Hopkins. Still waiting on a response but I don’t anticipate it getting accepted. Another thought I had was possibly the same package of KA and Mahomes for Ertz.

Obviously, at the moment, I’m keeping Bell and MThomas. I’m also open to trading either of them but Bell has lost a lot of value in my league and I’m not sure theres too many trades that make sense for Michael Thomas.

For me, it depends on the league. For example, in my keeper league we get to keep 6 players and most teams keep a QB, so for me, I have Mahomes and I would keep him since he is much better than any qb I can get in the draft. But in your league, if people tend not to keep qbs, then I would be trying to package allen and mahomes for another top rb or wr to go with bell and Thomas. If teams tend to keep qbs, which I wouldn’t assume since each team only keeps 3, I would stick with mahomes and and then package allen with either Thomas or bell and take the best offer.

Mahomes ANd KA for Ertz is absurd unless your league has TE premium. I wouldn’t even give up KA alone for Ertz lol.

If you can get any value for Williams/Mahomes, I would do that. Would try to sell Mahomes no matter way. Wasting a keeper on a QB in a single QB league is never worth it. Maybe you can try and target Kelce though. That could be something that worth it. Are you allowed to trade keepers for draft picks? That could be another avenue you can explore.

Trading keepers for picks is allowed and frequently happens, but this year it seems like no one is likely to trade any picks. In our 9th year with these same keeper rules, I’ve noticed that success lies almost entirely on the quality of your 3 keepers. I’d love to land that Nuk deal which I’m still waiting on but if not I want to make something happen so that I dont end up throwing Mahomes, and Williams/KA back into the pool for nothing.

I dont think trading for Kelce is realistic unless I’m willing to give up MThomas. Is that even worth it? Kelce is a beast but I dont think trading Thomas for Kelce makes my team better.

Kelce/Bell/Allen vs MT/Bell/Allen.

I wouldn’t be so quick to write that one off tbh. I love MT as much as the next guy but you need to think about this in terms of dropoffs and the positional advantage you gain from having an elite TE. The same argument I made for Gronk, I’ll make for Kelce this year. It’s all about replacement value.

Here is the scoring/finishes in half ppr format.

MT: WR6, 253 PPRpoints (However, if you remember, majority of this came from 2-3 huge blow up games he had early in the season)
KA: WR11, 212 PPR points (he was actually injured in the week 15 game so if you assume an average of ~15 PPR points, this number is actually closer to 230).

So the delta after accounting for adjustments above is about 20 points or roughyl 1.25 points per game.

Kelce: TE1, 243 PPR points. Would’ve finished as WR7. Dropoff from Kelce to anyone other than ertz and Kittle would’ve been ~50 points or over 3 points per game.

I think Kelce/MT ADP will be closer than most people think. MT is probably late 1st / early 2nd and Kelce should be mid 2nd at the latest, likely early 2nd. The positional advantage gained from getting WR1 production in your TE slot is incredibly valuable. And then there is the ancillary benefit which people don’t consider. You never have to worry about streaming TEs resulting in you wasting 2 roster slots on a TE. Given how limited/valuable roster slots are, this is a huge value.

And given the saints MO, they really aren’t the pass first offense anymore. They are a team that relies on their defense and running the ball. Bree’s isn’t airing it 550-600 times a season anymore. Not to mention Kamara is lethal out of the backfield and him and MT operate in similar areas of the field (MT primarily has success out of the slot in case you didn’t know).

The one counter point to Kelce is how this Hill scenario plays out. Part of Kelce’s success is because Hill stretches the field so much he creates a tonne of space between the numbers for Kelce to operate. If Hill gets suspended, Kelce becomes the top weapon and defenses will key in on him more. So that’s food for thought but if you really dig into it, I don’t think you can simply write off Kelce being worse for your team than MT.

So I got turned down by the Kelce owner. He actually has a pretty good structure going into the season with Saquon, Kelce, and David Johnson OR Diggs. Says he’s looking to try to package DJ and picks for a top 12 WR and doesn’t want to touch Kelce.

I talked a bit with the Ertz owner and he’s in a much worse position, Ertz being his only real quality keeper Derrick Henry & Derrius Guice being his other 2 likely keepers unless he makes a move. Tried to sell him on Mahomes, Williams, and DJ Moore for Ertz and he wont budge. BUT he countered with a 2nd round pick for Mahomes.

In this league, if I trade Mahomes he’ll be the only QB keeper. If I don’t, he’ll get drafted in the 1st round. Think I might accept this 2nd (which after all is said and done with keepers will be the 54th selection).

This seems like a fine deal for me. Getting a 4th/5th round pick is pretty good for someone you’re not keeping.