Keeper/Draft Pick Trade

Currently looking at keeping MT in 2nd round and James White in the 10th round.

Was just offered Aaron Jones in the 9th round for my 5th round pick so I would then be keeping MT in the 2nd and A. Jones in the 9th and lose my 5th round pick.

Worth the trade?

12 team .5ppr league

I prefer White in the 10th over Jones in the 5th and 9th.

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I would take aaron jones in this scenario…he is a 2nd/3rd round value (https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr) you are getting for a 5th…you also open up a roster spot from the 9th given up so you have room to make an early waiver claim. 2 keepers means values matter even more because of the reduction of quality players available.

I think i end up with good value but this is the first year we are doing keepers so im hesitant giving away picks. I believe A. Jones will be have a good season but not sure how good considering GB is pretty pass heavy.

Do not keep white. White is the biggest fantasy trap of this season. I’m working on an article about satellite backs who put up top 20 performances and how they do in the following season and long story short, unless your CMC/Kamara, the drop off is substantial for guys who can’t get to the lead back role and James white definitely can’t.

Also spat out some quick stats regarding white’s performance down the stretch but he got over 70% of his production in weeks 1-9, half of which Edelman was suspended and michel was also injured or playing hurt. From week 10 on after Michel fully consumed the starting role and Edelman was full steam and offense as a whole was full steam, white averaged <10ppr points and scored <4ppr points in 4 games. He was unusable. His early season performance was an outlier, not the norm and i wouldn’t bet on him repeating it again. especially with Harris added.

Here is how James White scored based on Michel being on or off the field per Scott Barrett from PFF:

With Michel on Field: 14.8 ppr/g
Without Michel on field: 23.1 ppr/g
Michel left early due to injury: 29.7ppr/g

Fade james white. Take Aaron Jones. He has a realistic shot of taking over lead duties for a high scoring offense. I’m probably as big of an A Jones truther as you’ll find on these forums. The kid is talented. Honestly if you were to tell me he would get at least 18 touches per game, I’d have no issues taking him in the top 6 this season. But the risk is he doesn’t and only gets like 12-14. But at a 5th round value, risk is built in. With new HC talking about getting RBs more involved in pass game, that’s a juicy proposition.

I was looking at players around the 5th round that would be available and there is nothing too crazy that stands out to me so would be willing to make the trade just wanted insight on how much value is perceived or if i should just stick with White in the 10th.

I haven’t looked into it but wouldn’t Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick and Darren Sproles be examples of successful satellite backs?

Darren Sproles is the single most successful satellite back in NFL history in terms of efficiency. Scott Barrett put out some great stats on him. But even sproles was productive cause he was paired with the single greatest offensive coach when it comes to using RBs in Payton. So I wouldn’t try and benchmark a single outlier season of James white to him.

Woodhead I cover in my article but he never lived up to the ADP after that breakout season, partially due to injury.

Riddick is also in the article I’m working on but he also plummeted in value the following season and the one after that.

The point here is these guys tend to breakout one year, and fizzle out the next. Their Y-o-Y reliability isn’t great. Based on the numbers I put together, the average drop-off for satellite backs which I defined as 50+ targets and <120 carries from 2014-2017 who break out one year (top 20 RB performance) to the following season is as follows:

Including Injuries: RB11 to RB36
Excluding Injuries: RB16 to RB30

Only guys to buck the trend are Kamara and CMC who both worked into a lead role in the offense. CMC had record levels of 90%+ snap share and Kamara is one of the most efficient RBs on a points per touch bases in NFL history and tied to again, the greatest offensive mind for RBs in NFL history in Payton. James white doesn’t hold a candle to either of those players. Everyone else in that sample busted.

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Is Aaron Jones worth a 6th round pick? Was able to move the pick back 1 round. I am anticipating that most stud RB1s will be kept

Aaron Jones is someone I’d be willing to take in the 4th and as early as late 3rd in redraft leagues. So yes, 6th round is a steal.

Fortunately, i have him as an 11th round keeper in my big money home league. Pretty excited about that

I like MT and Jones, so I would take the trade. I like the value also.

As a patriots fan and some one who spends a lot of time watching them this is an accurate take.

Side note: Edelman was suspended week 1-4 not injured

Yes sorry my mistake. Suspended not injured. Basically dude was not on the field.

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