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Keeper help please!


#1

I’m torn between two players due to each players upside but also risk with new additions or injuries. League is 12 man standard. I will be keeping DJ for a 10th round and OBJ for 1st. Who should my 3rd keeper be between Mike Evans for a 2nd or Jay Ajayi for a 4th? New additions to the Bucs make me believe Evans will lose a ton of targets and having the first pick in the 2nd round makes me feel like another WR will be available to match him next season. Jay Ajayi was also very inconsistent (could bust). We run a snake draft so I will have first pick in 2nd round(Ajayi kept) or last pick in 3rd round(Mike Evans kept) for my first pick to rebuild. Please help!


#2

Keep Jay Ajayi. While I like both players, I feel like both players have similar value, both coming off around the 1/2 turn, but the 4th vs 2nd round price makes this a no brainer for me.


#3

Thanks for the help man! I had similar thinking but all of the talk about Ajayi being a bust made me question it but still I leaned towards him. I won our league last year 16-0 and trying not to make my first decision a bad one.


#4

I’d keep Evans, DJ and OBJ, just like you’ve got going.


#5

Thanks for your response, these really do help. I really like having those 3 studs to start out with as well but I’m not sure if Mike Evans will perform as well as he did last season. Why do you say Evans over Ajayi?


#6

Keep Evans… I believe the addition of weapons will give him a bit more of an opportunity to work in space.


#7

If Evans is kept then what RB should be targeted at the end of the 3rd in a keeper draft? I would project players such as CJ Anderson, Hyde, Abdullah, and others to maybe available around that time. But then again you never know.


#8

I prefer the safety of Evans. Him with OBJ could just be yards and touchdowns all day.


#9

Of those names I like abdullah… but I am a husker fan so there might be some biased there. Big fan of Crowell and Montgomery if they are available.


#10

My brother is in the same league and has said he is keeping Montgomery and Crowell actually lol


#11

Hard decision but for me having 2 potential top 5 WRs would be deal breaker. D-Jax may steal some targets but will also require better coverage which could mean better opportunities for big plays out of Evans.


#12

All good points. Guess it comes down to if I believe Evans is the real deal.


#13

Wow a lot of Evans responses, which is very interesting because to me it’s a no brainer to take Ajayi. If I had to choose between the two, I might slightly prefer Evans, but that is ignoring the differing values. Evans is maybe a couple of picks more valuable than Ajayi, not a couple of rounds, and when we are talking 2nd vs 4th that is a huge difference.

Let’s look at it this way. I’m not sure who will be kept, but let’s assume that due to keepers your pick at the top of the second is essentially a pick at the top of the third, meaning that between keepers and first rounds picks the top 24 players are gone by the time you pick. I believe that is a very conservative estimate; to the extent that fewer than the top 24 are off the board at the top of the second, my point will only get stronger.

So let’s look at what we are really deciding on: Ajayi and whatever wr you could draft at the top of the 2nd round (adp top of the 3rd) vs Evans and whatever rb you could land at the top of the 4th (adp top of the fifth). According to adp on footballcalculator.com, my favourite wr likely available for you in the 2nd round would be Baldwin, with other options being Cooks or Hopkins. Rbs likely available at the top of the 4th for you would be Blount, Montgomery or Lacy. So Evans and Lacy or Ajayi and Baldwin? If that’s even close to you I don’t know what else to say.

I should also mention, on top of all the above, that the ballers actually have Ajayi ranked ahead of Evans in their UDK, so according to then you’d be getting a better player for less draft capital. Add in position scarcity, the likely regression coming for Evans, and the fact that Ajayi is one of only a handful of workhorse backs, and your choice should be exceptionally clear.


#14

Its evans for days. The target share really is not something to worry about. They added a deep threat that will pull coverage off of evans. Evans may not get 170+ targets this year, but his catch percentage will be up because of softer coverage. I still see him as a 140 target guy, and 65% isnt crazy to think for how many he gets . That’s 91 receptions. That is a solid number to hit. Where ajayi is set up to regress. If you take away his three crazy games, that’s 500 less yards and 4 less tds. That puts him on a pace for 900 yards and 5 tds on the season. Even in the 4th round thats not great. As for who to target, that’s a question for when that list comes out. All you can control right now is what you have. And what you have is 2 top 10 receivers pretty much locked in. And a top 5 rb. I’m not sure how he stacks up in standard. Either way, keep your known success.


#15

Thank you every body, this is awesome hearing everyone’s points. These are all things I have to look into. It’s a tough decicison bc in a standard league I like the depth at RB to start with but man if Evans remains a top 5 receiver that would be the best choice no doubt. I just don’t know how confident I am with Evans putting up those numbers. Ajayi could have a higher sealing. Such a big decision and I still don’t know lol


#16

This would be an interesting topic for the guys to do on the show! Andy, Mike and Jason, what do you guys think?!#footballers


#17

I would keep mike evans there easy.


#18

Anyone of you Mike Evans truthers want to address the difference in draft capital? :thinking:


#19

I would take Ajayi for a 4th, you won’t find a better rb in the 4th round


#20

I do not believe in Ajayi, that is pretty well known. Evans has a pretty high floor and a top 5 ceiling. My suggestion would be to take Evans and secure an RB1 and 2 WR1s. Then you have the option of taking CJ, who could end up and RB1, or Abdullah, who has a floor of an RB2 and maybe becomes an RB1.

If you take Ajayi, you secure a WR1 and an RB1, but Ajayi’s floor is low, very low. He could score 20 1 week and 4 the next. Then your next pick will be a WR2 (at best).

so:
RB1, RB2 (with upside), WR1, WR1
Or
RB1, RB2 (with risk), WR1, WR2 (hopefully)