Keeper Help - Stud WR or Upside RB?

Hey gang - looking for some feedback…

Question - Would you keep D.K. Metcalf with a 6th round pick or Antonio Gibson with a 10th?

Some context/league specifics:

  • 10-team PPR - Superflex with two regular flex spots (I know…it’s a lot)
  • Two keepers per year (lost the round they were taken in last year’s draft - can’t keep multiple years)
  • Scoring - several long TD bonuses
  • Already keeping Justin Jefferson with an 11th-round pick
  • I have the #1 pick this year and - based on who can and cannot be kept - will be taking Dalvin Cook with that pick

I’m probably 65%-35% leaning D.K. and I’ll explain the rationale.
A) Simply put, Metcalf will score more points than Gibson this year. The only RBs who crack the top-10 in overall scoring in this league are the top few guys (CMC, Cook, Kamara). Everyone else in the top 10-15 are WR, especially the ones capable of busting big plays.
B) This is a bit of an emotional reason, but I have had comically bad luck with keeping RB in the past. If a guy can get hurt or drastically underperform, it will be the year that I keep him. This is a bad reason to do things…but hey, I’m human.

This is a weird one for me because I fully understand that Gibson is a better value as a 10th and gives me a great 1-2 punch with Dalvin. I can bypass RB for the 2-3 and 4-5 turns and focus on WR and QB. Receiver is stacked this year and I get that I can find some studs at the 2-3 turn with my starting backfield already spoken for.

…but I just can’t seem to bring myself to do it. Tell me if I’m nuts on this.

(Also, I get the Jefferson-Cook stack isn’t awesome. I typically don’t like doing it with an offense that isn’t KC, but JJ is too good of a value at 11 to not keep and Dalvin is…well…he’s Dalvin.)

Would love your thoughts!

Yeah, I’m not really buying all the Gibson hype anyway. The guy is a former college WR; I don’t think his body can handle the kind of workload that he would need to fulfill the promise of his ADP. So he’s either not going to be as productive as people who are drafting him in the top of the 2nd round would like, or he will be–but only for a few weeks until he gets hurt.

With the PPR scoring and the bonuses for long TDs, I think you just take the value on Metcalf and be happy with two of the better deep threats in the league, pairing him with Jefferson.