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Keeper Help!


#1

12 team, 3 player keeper league, standard scoring, no penalty for keepers and we can them keep as long as we want.

Need 3 out of: Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton

I change my mind about this weekly, so any input would be greatly appreciated.


#2

what round does each cost?


#3

The 3 keepers account for our first 3 picks.


#4

What position are you picking from?


#5

Picking from the 10th


#6

Is that what no penalty means generally? seems like a penalty to me to have to use your top picks to keep the guys haha but back to your question:
Your two safest picks are the WRs - both have longer track record of production and are in better offenses. If choosing one of the two though because it is standard, I’d lean toward Jordy.
Between the two rbs, my preference is for Ajayi personally.
With these options, I think what may matter most (if you can’t wait to choose when we’ve seen injuries in preseason etc) is who you want to root for the least of these four guys.


#7

Maybe I’m using no penalty wrong? Anyway, my initial thought was to keep both WRs, it’s just when all is said and done with the rest of the league’s keepers, the running back landscape is pretty bare.


#8

For me it would definitely be Jordy, Hilton, and Ajayi


#9

Agreed then you need to pick between one of the rbs to drop. I would say Howard is the safer bet, Ajayi has the upside. I lean Howard. He did it consistently with a bad offense last season. Ajayi was mediocre a majority of the season. He feels like how Doug Martin did after his rookie season.


#10

I appreciate the responses. I agree with you about Ajayi - inconsistent last year and some injury concerns. My initial thought was Jordy, TY, and Howard, so I’ll probably stick with that.


#11

I’m not sure to be honest, someone else posted a keeper question and said no penalty to mean this as well - my thought before was that no penalty means you keep the player at the same round you took him the previous year (e.g. howard in the 12th last year, you’d keep him for a 12th round pick)


#12

I love the receivers, but in a 3 keeper leagues, the running back landscape is going to be non existent. If you can get 2 top 10 running backs you need to do that. Keep Ajayi and Howard. I would also keep Hilton even though Jordy is clearly better. Hilton will be a stud for a long time. Jordy for 1-2 years.


#13

I think it is dangerous to say that he will continue to produce because he did it last year in a bad offense - that performance was in spite of and, with their question marks at QB, defenses will key in on Howard this year.
I know there are issues with both Howard’s game and Ajayi’s but Miami does have a better offense that will probably move the ball more consistently than Chicago’s, yielding more scoring opportunities and less predictable play calling. If anything this should be a knock on Howard, not a credit to his name for his outlook this season.


#14

Since he needs to pay top end cost, the keeper potential for future years vs better player this season should be discounted, no?


#15

Yah, I totally see your point. I keep going back to that it would be a lot easier to find better WR value if I kept both RBs versus RB value if I kept both WRs.


#16

Miami averaged only 20 yards and 2 PGA per game more than Chicago. Chicago actually had more passing yards than Miami. Miami led in rushing yards, but Howard had more yards than Ajayi and averaged 0.8 ypc more than him. Miami does not have a significantly better offense. I’d choose the consistency and dominance of the depth chart with Howard. Ajayi still has to contend with Drake too.


#17

Your RBs have way more bust potential compared to your receivers. Although it is something to be said about position scarcity.


#18

Yah, I totally agree about bust potential, that’s whats make this decision so hard. I appreciate the response and the stats on Miami and Chicago’s offense.


#19

What were passing attempts vs rushing attempts like between the two teams last season? I ask because greater passing yard total with a much worse win-loss record indicates that they may have been playing from behind, likely against prevent d in garbage time more often than Miami.

Also, not just talking about last year in my comment but the idea that if Chicago looks likely to have a worse offense than Miami this year you are betting that Howard will do well despite a “bad offense” for a second year in a row. My suggestion was that he did well in spite of the issues with his team as a whole but that should not be taken completely as a good thing for his projection this year. I’m looking at Gurley’s success year one against his struggles the following season as reference for what may happen to Howard this year.
I gather that you are generally lower in your valuation of Ajayi than I but really like the info you are bringing because it is helping me really think/rethink about how I value him and Howard for this season.


#20

Jordy, Hilton, and Howard