i’m debating on who to keep in a 1/2 ppr league. my picks are between Keenen Allen and giving up my 7th round pick for him or Kareem hunt and giving up my 6th. The league is set up with 3 wrs 2 rbs and a flex. its an 8 man league and i have the 3rd overall pick in a snake draft.
Allen comfortably for me
hunt. fantastic value for an RB1. if you get lucky you can start with 2 RB1s and then draft to fill your WRs and flex. you will get better value at WR as well because there are more of them, and people are going RB crazy this year.
I’ll toss a vote in for K. Allen based on the pick you’d give up for Kareem Hunt, your league format favoring WR, and your draft position! I’m very excited to see Keenan Allen out there again.
Having to start 3 WRs shifts the posslitional value markedly. Throw in that I think Allen is the better player, and my (at this point well doucmented) reservations with Hunt as an RB1, and the difference in keeper price (not that the difference is huge), and I really think this should be Allen.
lets play everyones favorite game then in the keeper world. who would you rather have…
hunt and tate/jefferys/cook (the WRs going in the 7th round of an 8 man HPPR)
Allen and drake/penny/miller (RBs going in the 6th round of an 8 man HPPR)
im taking hunts side. its an 8 man league. the value of having an RB1 (reservations or not, the chances are high for him you cant deny that) where you need all the positional advantage you can get, and the value of WRs late in the draft of an 8 man league being so much better, it just makes sense. add in the RB craze that is going on this year, and that he has the 1.03 and could get another RB1 to start the draft something like gordon/barkley/fournette and hunt, then go hard to fill the WR spots and flex. you may think allen is the better player, and i might even agree with you. but hunt will get plenty of looks at a position that is very hard to find guys that will get as many touches as he will.
Easily the 2nd for me. Allen and Drake, in particular.
I missed that it was an 8 man league, but this actually pushes it further over to the Allen side. I aactually don’t like Hunt’s chances of being an RB1 in an 8 team format at all, actually. I’d put them well below 50%. I expect regression I’m touches, efficiency and TDs. I also think there are all of a sudden a number of very good RBs. I’d rather have the big 4 (obviously), Barkley, Gordon, Kamara, Cook, Freeman and Fornette, at least. I wouldn’t be surprised if CMC, Mixon and/or Drake (yes, really) finish ahead of him as well.
Hunt in the sixth you have a better shot drafting Allen later
This is a good point. It depends on who the keepers are, but if I thought I could still get Allen, Hunt in the 6th is still a great value, despite my reservations.
Those draft values don’t seem to fit 3 WR drafts. Hunt could easily split time with Ware if he’s fully healthy. Kenan Allen could end up the #1 WR. I’m taking Allen, especially given the premium on WR in that league
and what are you basing the regression in touches, TDs, and efficiency? im sure it has something to do with pat mahomes. i think thats a poor reason, but that doesnt matter. we believe what we believe. and i believe that the workhorse back for his team will be an RB1, just like he was last year after you doubted him then. i dont project him to be top 5 BTW. RB10 is around where i have him sitting, with top 5 potential.
@ALowDownDirtyShane what makes you think that ware is good enough to split time with hunt? when given the same job, hunt was far far better. it will be 65% hunt, 35% going to the other backs, majority to ware i agree with that. but hunt had 65% last year as it was, and that got him RB3 overall. as for not fitting 3WR drafts, we only have the info we have to go off of. and what we have, is a DEEP deep WR selection to choose from since that is the nature of the position, and very few RBs. these ADPs hold true for the most part, 2 WR or 3 WR sets.
He finished in the top 15 on a much less explosive offense in 2016. He’s going to eat into those touches. Not to mention the addition of Watkins to the passing attack. The fact they drafted a gunslinger at QB. Their defense isn’t what it used to be, so game script could work against him.
I’m not saying Hunt is a bust, I just don’t believe he’ll return draft value.
Mahomes is a factor, and so is Ware (he definitely is going to take some touches). But the biggest reason is I don’t think the numbers line up with the film. When I see that, I expect regression. Throw in the likelihood that the offense won’t be quite as good and the best certainty that Ware will be more involved than any other back not named Hunt was last year, and he’s an easy candidate for regression. I still think he’s a fine asset, but I don’t think his odds are food for a top 8 finish.
ware will get touches, just like west did last year. and even if he does eat more into it, i dont expect hunt to go below 250. his reception total might even go up into the 60s. he was a very effective runner getting 4.9 a carry with 275 carries. he has the same o line so that number, even if it does go down, shouldnt go down a ton. i expect regression too, thats why i dont have him as RB3 on the year. but regression doesnt mean he wont still perform at a high level like he has. but this goes back to arguments we had last year. where i saw elite talent, you saw just an RB. i still remember an argument we had over one play where hunt looked VERY elite, and you just didnt agree. so this is one we wont agree on ever, not until you cant deny it anymore that is…
that’s tough… made me rethink for a second… I think I’ll still take Allen and then Miller. I have zero interest in Drake or Penny, and I genuinely mean zero. I haven’t taken either of those two in a single mock draft that I have done. I would draft RB heavy the rest of the draft once my WR spots are settled though! Rostering as many as I can, hoping one can make a tier jump. Not an easier decision!
yeah i agree its still not an easy choice. im just seeing the trends of how bad this RB craze is getting, and knowing that this is the one time you dont go against the grain. so that also makes my choice much much easier. cause although im going against keenan, i have been on board with him for a few years now too. glad to see he is finally getting the respect he deserves!
I think Ware gets a lot more work than West did last year.
The running back craze is insane this year… I have really been questioning the going with the grain part though! part of me thinks to go against it in moments like this but I agree with you that if you do you risk losing two or three tiers of running backs… I want to know whether people are looking at going RB round 1 and then WR round 2 if one of those top tier WRs remain!
why? cause he is better than west? not by much. their first year together they split carries. then the following year, the one everyone loves ware for, ware did take over. but he didnt blow you away. you want to talk about eye tests, he failed it more than once. west and ware are about the same in the roll they will be used in with the job being hunts. good pass portection, solid hands, decent to good in open space. its not going to change much, and even if it does… do you expect him to lose an extra 25 carries to ware? i dont. he is the reining leading rusher of the NFL. he is young, has great hands, and a 4.9 YPC in his first year. but i really need to stop beating the hunt drums. we just dont agree on this one, and ill let hunt do my arguing for me again, just like i did last year.
@Arfnoz i would have agreed with you most any other year! but the fact that i have seen OBJ and hopkins go in the 2nd round, and julio is firmly planted in the 2nd… man that says a lot. i preach zig when others zag all the time. but this time, i think if you zig, its going to be right off a cliff and into RB3 valley.
I just posted a whole different topic thread because I want to gather a lot of opinions! I’m with you I’ve been doing RB RB but I’m starting to question that…