Keeper League Contraction Draft Options

My 14 team keeper league is becoming a ten team league, so instead of putting all of the players from the disappearing teams into the regular draft pool, we are having a 2 round contraction draft where the remaining teams draft two players from the pool of players who were on the abandoned teams.

This is leading to some strange choices. The league is an IDP league that starts: QB/RB/RB/Rec/Rec/Rec/Flex/DL/LB/DB/D-Flex. (Rec is WR/TE). We do 0.25 points per reception.

My keepers are Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, and Calvin Ridley, and I will be using the 1.01 for Edwards-Helaire.

I pick 4th and 17th in this contraction draft. The 17th pick will likely be a receiver, probably Marvin Jones or Mark Andrews. So my question is what to do at my fourth pick.

My guess is that the first three picks are Chris Godwin, Miles Sanders, and Tyler Lockett. That means my options would be James Connor, Melvin Gordon, Adam Thielen, AJ Brown, and George Kittle.

Thoughts?

I would be taking Thielen and AJ Brown over Lockett, but do you think that Andrews will really fall down to 17? If so I’d take one of those WR’s as you should be solid at RB. Otherwise I’d take Kittle!

My predictions for the first three picks are based on the positions each team is likely to draft, plus projected points on our league platform (CBS), plus what I know. Realistically, the third pick could be Lockett or any of the other receivers I mentioned, but Lockett is my best guess.

There are a lot of good receivers available in this contraction draft and our league treats WR and TE as the same position, so Andrews scores out as roughly comparable to Marvin Jones (Kittle is roughly Calvin Ridley) based on the Ballers UDK projections.

I think your right that Thielen and Brown are the best receivers I can take here. Which means the question is whether I take one of them over James Connor or Melvin Gordon. I had been leaning toward taking a RB so that I don’t have to rely on Montgomery as my undisputed RB3.

Based on keepers and my projections for picks my two options are the six players I listed above plus either:

Thielen
Marvin Jones
Antonio Gibson

Or

James Connor
Marvin Jones
Antonio Gibson

Of those nine players I am starting two RB, three Rec, and one flex.

3 WR league, I’d like to have some good depth there. I’m liking Montgomery this year and enjoying it even more that he’s been falling in the draft.

If you choose RB I would go James Connor over Gordon. Otherwise, I would pick Thielen.

Yeah I think you have convinced me that going receiver and receiver in this contraction draft is a good idea.

I think I can do that and then go for a few potentially high upside RB dart throws and hope I am able to supplement Mixon, CEH, and Montgomery

Thanks

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