Keeper League - Rd 1 Pick 6

So I am struggling with what my draft plan should be heading into my 12 team PPP Keeper League draft. I like my 2 keepers and their values - Patty Mahomes in the 10th and Kerryon in the 6th - but I have 6th pick in the draft and essentially all the top tier running backs will have been kept or drafted by that point.

This leaves me with three main choices:
Option 1:
1st Rd - Draft a top 5 WR - Julio, Michael Thomas, OBJ will all be available
2nd Rd (14th overall cuz I traded up) - Draft a mid tier RB - Best available will be Devonta Freeman, Fournette, Josh Jacobs

Option 2:
1st rd - Select a back-end Tier 1 RB - Specifically Joe Mixon & Todd gurley will be available here but won’t be there for my 2nd pick
2nd Rd - Select a WR outside of the elite 5-6, think Mike Evans, TY Hilton type range

Option 3 - Zero RB
1st - Top 5 WR
2nd - Zach Ertz (Kelce and Kittle are being kept) or next best WR (Evans,Hilton)

Possible Lineup looks:
Option 1:
QB: Mahomes
RB1: Freeman/Fournette/Jacobs
RB2: Kerryon
WR1: Julio/Thomas/OBJ

Option 2:
QB - Mahomes
RB1 - Mixon/Gurley
RB2: Kerryon
WR1: Mike Evans/TY Hilton/Maaybee Antonio Brown

Option 3:
QB: Mahomes
RB1: Kerryon
WR1: Julio/Thomas/OBJ
TE: Ertz

I personally like Option 2 the best. This gives you the comfort of having a back end RB1 (both with top RB1 potential) and a solid RB2, all who can catch passes, while also giving you a back end WR1. Even though Mixon, Gurley, and even Kerryon carry some injury risk, you should be able to play those guys every week without question. If you can get Evans/Hilton/or even AB plus Mahomes, Mixon/Gurley, and Kerryon, that’s a very strong core and the only thing that could take those guys down is injury. Ertz might see less targets this year and I would personally rather go with a WR1 instead of hoping Ertz repeats last season, but I see the appeal of locking up a top-3 TE while also having a top WR1. Yet, as a fellow Kerryon owner, it would make me nervous having him as my RB1 even with the new scheme and Riddick getting cut.

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Thanks for the response! That is what I was kind of leaning towards. Kerryon as my RB1 definitely would make me nervous lol. Although I love me some Kerryon, I’d feel much more comfortable as my RB2.

Freeman/Fournette/Jacobs I like but more as RB2 as well. Mixon and Gurley I feel like I could live with as my RB1. I’m also of the mindset that WRs are deep and I could scoop up some solid late rounders.

Just curious - Do you have any strong preference between Mixon and Gurley? They both have their risks so deciding between them is hard. I wanna say Gurley cuz if he can stay healthy he’s a steal, but I find myself leaner towards safer side and choosing Mixon

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I’m in a weird situation with Mixon and Gurley as I am a Rams fan and a Mixon owner in a keeper league. If Gurley can stay healthy he is obviously a top-5 player in the league with how good the Rams offense is, but we won’t know until Week 1 as the Rams staff isn’t saying anything about him. Mixon can really take over the league if everything goes right with the Benglas offense, but obviously that is a huge IF with a new head coach, Andy Dalton, and the health of AJ Green. I do see Mixon getting used in a similar fashion to Gurley last season, but I would probably go with Gurley on the better offense since you have Kerryon already on a bad offense, however it is really up to your personal preference.

opt2 lineup looks best imo

if I was confident Gurley would be hanging out in the 2nd round, I’d go with the best available WR and take Gurley in the second.

If you could manage Mahomes/Gurley/Kerryon/Julio by the time the draft reaches pick 14… you’re in absolute business.

Take zero RB. Having KJ as a keeper allows you to really open up a Zero RB draft. I did the same thing in my home league with A Jones as a keeper and feel great about the team. Got great zero RB options in the mid-late single digit rounds and double digit rounds for high upside.

I would open with JJ or OBJ, which ever you like more. Personally I like OBJ but can’t go wrong.

In the 2nd, if Evans is there, I’d jump on that like hot cakes.

I like option 2 the most. Mixon in the 1st vs Jacobs (my favorite out of freeman/fournette/jacobs) is a big drop off in my opinion. And Julio in the 1st compared to Evans/Brown is less of a drop off I think.

I’m curious… if you’re picking there, and Gurley falls to you in the 2nd round… do you consider taking him? I know you’re not as worried as most about his usage, so I’m curious why you’d pass him up knowing if he plays to 80% of his capabilities you suddenly have 3 players who will contribute at or near the top of their positional tiers.

That’s the thing, I don’t know if he plays to 80% of his capabilities. What if it’s 60-65%? The range of outcomes there is too wide. I am all for chasing upside but just not in the 1st 2 rounds. And in the 1st 2 rounds, I am just trying to minimize risk. Henderson is a real risk to eat away at the target volume as well. Been watching more film on him and the dude is actually pretty beast. Obviously the numbers confirm that but on film, he’s explosive. Gurley still leads the back field in my eyes but the risk is there that henderson eats into his production significantly. In the 1st 2 rounds, my preference is typically to go Zero RB if I’m picking in the back half of the 1st. The WRs there carry much less risk than the RBs and I’m always comfortable taking my guys in the middle rounds and playing waivers for RBs.

Fair enough, I looked at it from the perspective of Kerryon provides a bit of a cushion for that risk. I actually have KJ as my RB10 this year (even before Riddick got cut) and I know I’m near his ceiling with my ranking, but that may give you a better idea of why I’d be willing to assume that risk.

I have KJ as my RB12 so we’re not that far off. But the way I think about it is even if you have Kerryon, why assume that risk when you can get 2 elite wide outs? People that need to take the risk are the ones that don’t have a great roster. If you have the opportunity to have a great roster and have the value from KJ later in the rounds, that’s a great floor. You can build on that by taking risk on high upside guys in the later rounds but no need to take on that risk and negate the benefit you have with KJ as a keeper.