Keeper League - Value Picks v ADP

Need to keep 3 of the following in a 14 team, half ppr keeper league. Draft spot given up in brackets. I’d be drafting from the 5th spot.

Mike Evans (2)
Stefon Diggs (3)
Brandon Cooks (4)
Kerryon johnson (6)
Nick Chubb (7)
Phillip Lindsay (17)

Im leaning with taking the value of Johnson, Chubb and Lindsay but also like Mike Evans in the second. What are people’s thoughts on keepers for value as opposed to just keeping your best players from an ADP perspective?

Lindsay is a must for that pick, even if he was a one year wonder, you lose nothing, while having a pretty high ceiling too.

Nick chubb… got more interesting. For a 7th, i might not keep him. Its tough because while hunt is away he should be everything we saw last year and more. But once hunt gets there… then what? Who is the guy? Is he a complimentary piece? Does he tske over dukes role, or does duke become more or a slot reciever and its hunt and chubb? Or does hunt just take over because he is THAT damn good? Too many questions, not enough upside. I would not keep chubb. Only reason i would, is so i can keep him next year IF hunt doesnt stay.

Kerryon is a keep for me. I have him as well in the 6th, and i expect him to be about a 3rd or 4th round guy this year, and he has the upside of being an RB1. At worst he is a high end RB3 which would suck, but i can live with a situational play RB in the 6th.

Then its brandin cooks, and pretty easily to me. He went 80 for 1200 yards, and 5 TDs. That tells me he has room to get better with TDs. Evans and diggs didnt blow him out of the water, and he is a round to 2 rounds cheaper. Take the guy that can do more, for cheaper. Pair that with the fact that if you really want evans, he very likely will make it to you in the second round as it is. Diggs too for his 3rd round pick. Granted, thats pure specualtion since its a keeper with 14 teams meaning 42 players will be off the board before you even start, im just saying its possible.

So my choice would be cooks (4th) kerryon (6th) and lindsay (17th)

This gives you your top 3 picks, and you will already have a good stable of RBs to work with making it easy to go best player avaiable at each round.

I agree with all of what @BusterD said and the detailed analysis; however, I do disagree with who to keep. Odds are Chubb will be the guy for 6-8 weeks; and, as the guy he’ll be a RB1 or top RB2, thats a steal in the 7th. Come week 6-8, Chubb might drop down to a flex play at best (I don’t think so but it is very possible) at that point, you’ll have had 6-8 weeks to find a backup plan.

As for Cooks, he’s been extraordinarily consistent everywhere he’s been; but, he’s the 3rd or 4th option on this team (behind Gurley, Kupp, and Woods). So, he has the same warning tag as Chubb: a guy coming in (Hunt for Chubb, and Kupp for Cooks) who could hurt their value/production. The difference is, Chubb is an RB, more valuable position because of scarcity and he’s cheaper.

So, I keep Kerryon, Chubb, and Lindsay. Then on draft day, I take a WR at 5 (my advice is Hopkins), then find mid round RB value. Guys like Freeman and Fournette are going in the 3rd round.

Ill give you kupp because i do think he has worked his way into being their WR1 even from the slot, but i dont think woods is the 3rd. That goes to cooks. I know, woods had a better year, but not by much and it was very much an outlier year. He has never had thst many receptions, yards, or TDs in one year. Even if he doesnt go down in stats, they were so similar at worst they are 3A and 3B. So i still think cooks is the guy to go with, because not including injury, you wont have to find a replacement for him. With chubb there is a very good chance you do. Granted, getting an RB1 in the 7th even if it is only for 6 weeks is crazy valuable, i would jist prefer to go cooks. Otherwise i dont really disagree, just a bit of a nit pick here and there. :blush:

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Without looking it up, who’s who? Cooks, Woods and Kupp.

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@fun4willis

  1. Woods
  2. Cooks
  3. Kupp
    I’m guessing.

@BusterD I agree with you 100%. Kerryon and Lindsay are auto-keeps then it comes down to preference between Chubb and Cooks.

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Yup, i just happen to know those too becasue they been on my mind lately. Kupps is insane cause thats through 8 games if i remember correctly. Which is batty because thats over 120 receptions, 1600 yards and 10 TDs

Thanks all for the input. Was certainly an easier decision before the Browns went and signed Hunt but Im still leaning Chubb, Johnson and Lindsay.

Chubb should be money until Hunt returns and even then I’m hoping that at worst the Browns backfield operates in a similar vein to the Saints one two punch. If it wasn’t Dorsey who signed Hunt as a rookie I’d be less concerned but clearly he loves the
guys talent. Just hope the Browns offence as a whole clicks next year and they can support two backs.

I like Cooks but agree that Kupp is the 1 while Cooks and Woods are more of a 2A /2B.

Thanks BusterD for
the thoughts on Evans. Depending on other keepers there is a high chance he is still there in the second so makes sense to wait until then and pick up him or a similar tier WR.

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Woods, Cooks and Kupp (from 2017 season).

In my opinion there is no WR1 in LA. Buy the cheapest, sell the most expensive.

I’m late to this party but let me sell you on Cooks. There isn’t a true number 1 in LA. There wasn’t one with Kupp in and there wasn’t one without him nor did Cooks get affected greatly by Kupp. Numbers back it up and actually show Kupp may have helped. Cooks had a 23.5% target share with Kupp in the lineup compared to 21.1% without.

It’s entirely possible that 3 WRs can all substain WR2 value on the same offense when targets in the passing game are largely going only to them.

For reference as well, Woods had a 25.7% share and Kupp had 21.7%. That’s 71% of the total passing offense going the 3 people and all being virtually equal in their own ways.