Keeper Predicament: Jay Ajayi or Michael Thomas

10tm Keeper Auction League
PPR
$100 budget
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, FLX, TE, D/ST, K

Jay Ajayi for $6
or
Michael Thomas $8

I thought I was dead set on Thomas as I viewed him as less risky (albeit he has his own risks) but have recently started to doubt myself as RBs aren’t nearly as deep as WR is this year and Ajayi looks to be a true bell cow back.

New to the forums but really like what I’ve seen so far. Any input would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance!

3 Likes

I’d go Thomas even though I think that RB depthis more important. I worry about Ajayi’s knees to be solid all season plus I feel like Thomas could really have a huge year! But you gotta trust your gut and make sure you land another solid RB either way.

2 Likes

I’d go for Ajayi just due to position scarcity. If the rumors are true, he’s going to get one of the largest workloads in all of the nfl. Sure, his knees may fall apart one day, but I don’t think it will happen this year. The Saints are well known for spreading the ball around, so that limits Michael Thomas’ upside a bit. We also don’t know how Michael Thomas will play as the no1 receiver facing the opponent’s best CBs. Granted he’s on a high-powered offense, but I consider him to be a low end WR1. Ajayi can be a top 5 RB if he stays healthy. He’s also $2 cheaper! Wooooooo!

2 Likes

its thomas for me. in a PPR RBs are not as scarce as people think. you can find servicable guys later on that will do good enough to keep you in games. no one will really win you one though. i do like the 6% of your budget over 8%, but the other thing of it is for me, i see ajayi as a bust this year. i brought it up in another post. but ajayi had half of his production made in just 4 games. after that he was just… average. i can get a guy that will more than likely produce just as much for cheaper and later.

2 Likes

Saints have NEVER in the Drew Brees era had a receiver with over 100 catches. They share the ball way too much and Thomas is so green. I don’t know that I’d want to buy him for $8.00 or spend a second round pick on him. I really just don’t get it. Jay Ajayi can win you weeks and has a decent baseline. There’s also no legitimate backup to him, so I say you go with the hard to find workhorse back over the second year WR, who’s basically guaranteed to not catch more than 90 passes. Don’t get cute in the first 4 rounds.

2 Likes

I go Ajayi here, and I’m a big Thomas fan. Like everyone has said, bellcow, likely a guaranteed workload, etc. I think you’ll be able to get some pretty solid receivers with close to Thomas level numbers for $8 this year anyway (Maclin, Marshall).

2 Likes

I hear where you’re coming from, @gavin_mcmahon but to use 100 receptions as a baseline for a WR1 is a bit steep as there were only 3 WR to accomplish that all of last year. In addition to that Thomas caught 92 passes last year as Brees’ favorite target. Now with Cooks gone there are even more targets available, unless you believe that Ted Ginn is going to see 100+ targets. I definitely worry about Thomas seeing #1 corners week in and week out though.

It’s definitely a close call. I deem Thomas the safer pick but Ajayi has the higher ceiling. I can’t seem to get over his metrics from last year. Sure, those 200 yard games were great but outside of those he was pretty meh. Toss in the fact that they kept Stills, Parker is supposedly making this big leap, and Gase apparently loves Julius means I doubt they involve Jay in the passing game like they’ve talked about in OTA’s.

Anyways, I very much appreciate the feedback. What a great community! Thank you.

1 Like

@ReginaPatFF If you view Thomas in that light [Maclin, Marshall], then yes the decision is easy. I’m having a hard time putting him in with those guys after he finished as WR#7 last year in PPR. To put it in perspective, Thomas will go for roughly $20-$24 in this particular auction [basically the same price as Ajayi].

1 Like

@ttwally It’s not that I see Thomas as the same tier as Maclin or Marshall, but I do think you can get them cheaper in the auction and they’ll return better value at their price, combined with Ajayi at $6, rather than Thomas at $8 and whatever RB you could buy at the price of Maclin or Marshall.

2 Likes

No worries man, just letting you know my thoughts. Much harder to get a bellcow. I go Ajayi on this 100%

2 Likes

@ReginaPatFF @gavin_mcmahon Both very valid points. I definitely need to look at it and how it will drive my overall roster composition instead of a straight up “either/or.” Chances are I could keep Ajayi for $6 and potentially grab Thomas for a lower net cost than keeping Thomas and going out and grabbing Ajayi. Thanks fellas!

1 Like

There are a few things I am noticing on this thread that give me pause. Jay Ajayi’s floor is he loses his starting job. That is a real possibility, Drake is good, average 5 YPC good. Every team is giving out preseason hype that doesn’t translate into reality, but none more so than the Dolphins.

This was from another thread about standard scoring, but it tells the tale. Ajayi is the definition of boom or bust. His trend simply leans more toward bust.

1 Like

Thomas however, defines consistency.

Go watch the away game at San Diego, Brees had a bad day and sent Thomas a few very hard catches that counted against him. Without that game he hits 81% catch rate. That is amazing.

His targets should go up and his catch % should go down, but I expect him to improve over last year as there are now another 120 targets paired with 8 TDs to be spread back into the offense.

1 Like

Hahaha Thomas “DEFINES” consistency after his first year! Of all the claims I’ve seen on this forum, that’s the worst one. I’m sorry, I just don’t think we’ve seen enough to give him the Larry Fitzgerald “Mr. Consistency” award just yet. In all honesty, I’d rather have Fitz than MT.

1 Like

I was using hyperbole, but so are you sir. We are comparing the 2016 seasons only. So follow the numbers, Thomas had 4 weeks in 1 season where he caught every ball thrown his way. In the past 3 years Fitz has only done that once.

1 Like

Fair point. I just don’t understand the hype. Brees literally spreads the ball all over. It’s hard to spend a second round pick on MT with there being too many ways it could go horribly wrong and other elite talent still on the board. A lot pf people are nervous Snead and ginn could step up which wouldn’t be crazy to think. I actually prefer a flyer on Snead in the 8th more than Thomas in the 2nd with such a small sample size.

2 Likes

Ginn won’t, he has really bad hands. Thomas has transcendent talent and opportunity. NO does spread it out but they also throw A LOT.

Quick stats for you. Since drew brews has been with NO he has never thrown for less than 4400 yards. Since 2010 he has never thrown for less than 32 TDs. That’s enough for 4 people to go for 1100 yards and 8 Tds. Every year. I’m not saying that will happen, but man, if yoyre the top reciever for a QB like that, you will get fantastic production. Now if you’re thinking well, he will disappear from time to time because he will focus elsewhere and Thomas will disappear. Everyone does that. Just last year Antonio brown scored 8 or less points for me twice. In a PPR. it happens. Don’t expect every game to be huge just because they are big time players. It just doesn’t work like that.

1 Like

Did you just…agree with me.

1 Like

Oh jesus… how do you delete stuff on here? I feel dirty.

And just to be clear, i commented on this post first, so technically you are agreeing with me. Lol.

1 Like