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Keeper Question Hunt, McKinnin, Thomas,


#1

Hunter Henry and the Hendersons #Avatar

Keeper, pick 2 in a 1/2 ppr 16 team league:

Zek 1st
Brown 1st
Hunt 3rd
McKinnon 9th
Michael Thomas 13th

I think Michael Thomas is a clear choice due to the amazing value, but who for the second? McKinnon has great value, Hunt not too bad either, or do I stick with a proven guy as a first rounder in Zeke or AB?

Presumably I can either only keep 1 of the first rounders or purhapse keep both as a 1st and second…rule isn’t firmly in place and I’m taking over as comish.


#2

Is your drafting order set to random or previous record of last season? I would leave it up to the league to vote, maybe come up with some different options and poll them.

Thomas for sure. If you keep Zeke/AB/Hunt you still have a chance to draft McKinnon if your draft goes right.

I honestly might just keep AB if it’s down to 2 keepers only. You would never need to start another WR for the most part with AB and Thomas (except for bye weeks). And just got RB heavy early in the draft while some teams might not be able to afford to.


#3

Thanks for the prompt response.

Random…so assume I have the 8th pick on average.


#4

No problem, as awlays it is still early so things can change over camps/pre-season but don’t be afraid to keep a 1st rounder but stay updated


#5

nope. i would take the superior RB situation you got. zeke and hunt. 2 locked in guys that will be top 10s. thats a massive advantage, even if you dont get the best value. you can find WRs in the second, and 4th and on rounds that can be top 10. its much much much harder to do with RBs. if you want value i would consider hunt and mckinnon. but i dont think he is an RB1. good value though.


#6

Buster’s advice is certainly an option. Thomas in the 13th is very juicy though. I think for me it depends how valuable you think Hunt will be. There are a lot of unknowns for him right now between a new QB, OC, backup situation (Ware), and the fact that Reid still likes to forget about his best player. Zeke and Hunt/Thomas is the way to go for sure though


#7

It’s Thomas by a mile. A first round or at worst very high 2nd round, 3rd year receiver in the 13th is incredible value. Hunt in the Third is fine, but you’re getting at best two rounds of value, and honestly I don’t think he should be a first rounder, so for me it’s 1 round.


#8

Another way to look at this is to sub in a guy you think you can get in the round of each player you’d be considering keeping and then compare the pairs if players you’d have in the hypothetical.

For example, if I keep Thomas instead of Hunt, maybe I get someone like Collins/Guice/Penny or maybe even McKinnon again in the third. If I keep Hunt in the Third, I get what in the 13th, Marquise Lee? Mike Williams? Seems like a clesr choice to me.

Opportunity cost is a very important factor.


#9

i should add, this is a year to year situation. last year i would have said thomas all day. but the RB craze is coming back and there is very little chance of someone getting this advantage without a keeper or dynasty situation. because the RB craze is coming back pretty strong, really good WRs have been dropping. i should have been more clear on why, because without a doubt thomas is a tremendous value.

@DFWB i agree with what you just said about looking at the value you would get in each round, but in the 13th im not looking to find a WR1 anyway. im starting to look at kickers and defense. so while i get what you mean, on this one its a bit off because the value is insane for thomas. mine is more the trend values on this one. because without a doubt, thomas is INSANE value there. i just know i can find someone good at WR because i have 2 top 10 RBs so i really can ignore RB for a while and get tons of depth that i couldnt with thomas, because i would be to worried about getting an RB that i can trust.

all in all im not saying dont go thomas, i would just take that huge advantage sitting there in front of me and run with it.


#10

But you can get probably two good RBs in the 1st and 2nd too.

Hell, give me RBs with my first 3 picks and STILL get a locked and loaded RB 1? That sounds like an enormous advangtage.


#11

probably, but only if you keep zeke, and then get lucky in the second. thats a big probably with how trends are these days. the way im talking i know what i get.


#12

@BusterD @DFWB, keep in mind that this is a 2 player keeper in a 16 team league. That means that it is safe to assume the top 32 players will not be available. Realistically in this league’s draft Mckinnon and Thomas are both HIGH 1st round values, but on the same token it is safe to assume there will be little if any real 1st rounders left in the first. If we assume he has the 8th we can also assume that if he keeps McKinnon and Thomas then Zek, Brown, and Hunt will likely be picks 1, 2, and 3 probably followed by the rookie RBs. Probably Barkley, Penny, and Guice in debatable order.

For for his pick he is going to be taking guys like Ajayi or Drake.


#13

Honestly I forgot it was 16 man. That really reinforces what I was saying. That makes the RB advantage and RB craze even bigger.


#14

Having two quality studs in a 16 team league goes a long way. Also, wait until you find out draft order before you make a concrete decision. If you have a top 4 pick, keep McKinnon and Thomas(who doesn’t love that value), then with your first round pick grab the best available of who is left between Zeke, Brown, Hunt or Saquan. If you are at the back of the 1st round, Keep Zeke or Brown, and either McKinnon or Thomas based on who you kept in the first.


#15

Value of MT in the 13th round seems like an absolute must. That is Bottom 1st round value in the 13th. Not sure how your league rules work but assuming that next year it costs you a 12th or something like that? You’re basically getting one of the most consistent WR1s in the league locked in. From there, you could probably keep Zeke. Zeke + MT is a great core to build your team around.

As much as I like Hunt, with Nagy gone, the Andy reid factor gives some pause for concern. Also Ware coming back might eat into some of the 3rd down pass catching work (which West already kind of did last year during the stretch Reid had play calling duties). As great of a coach as Reid is, he outsmarts himself too much. With Zeke, you know what they are going to do. Pound the rock. That offense has no creativity and no one wants to see 2017 Dak again.

I would have no problems with Zeke / MT core, and still have your 2nd-4th round picks where you can maybe grab a rookie or if they’re gone, go for value with guys like Lamar Miller, Dion Lewis etc. Could even just grab a CJ anderson later. The scoring gap that you get from MT vs anything you get in the 13th round is enormous. You’re basically getting one extra WR1 starter with MT for the price of a 13th round. Hell the scoring gap / consistency / comfort of just locking in that WR1 slot who basically never busts vs even trying to replace that production in the 4th/5th or later rounds is very difficult.


#16

I see no way in which not taking Michael Thomas makes sense. 13th round is just too much value!

As for the 2nd keep: I lean Hunt. His obstacles are being overblown, IMO, and I think that 1st will land you a much better option at RB than that 3rd will. Hunt is still the defending rushing champ. His ceiling and floor are both very high.


#17

Hunt over Zeke is an enormous mistake.


#18

you dont see how having two top 10 RBs in a 16 man league makes sense? lol i get the value, but the positional advantage by itself rivals a good value. you can find people later to replace thomas. you can find a top 10 RB later like that. but hey, like i said. i dont blame anyone going thomas.


#19

I can’t see how either. You have finite resources and the goal of the draft is to maximize the value you get from those resources. Having a top 7 player at both positions is a hell of an advantage as well.

Frankly, I’d keep Thomas over Hunt if you cut the value in half and got Thomas in the 6th.


#20

I think Zeke is an obvious choice here and I also think that Thomas is pretty easy. I love Brown, but Thomas is the 13th is so nice to have and the difference between him and Brown isn’t huge. Yes Brown will most likely be WR 1, 2 or 3, but Thomas could very easily be in that convo and should be a lock WR1 overall anyway.