Keeper Question Hunt, McKinnin, Thomas,

@Guinness it is absolutely not safe to assume that the top 32 players won’t be available. We know for a fact that this assumption is false, as the original poster has 5 of the top 32 players, so at the very least 3 of the top 32 will be available. It is highly likely that other teams will own more than 2 of the top 32, while others will have one or none of the top 32. So that’s a bad assumption.

You also seem to assume, despite believing that the top 32 players are being kept, that everyone will retain their first round picks. It is entirely possible (though not probable) that our friend could pick 8th and be getting his pick of Zeke and Brown anyway because picks 1-7 could have surrendered their first round picks for keepers.

@Ddkrutsinger a very valuable exercise would be to look at your opponents and project who they will be keeping. Of critical importance is knowing what other elite players might be returning to the pool and how many of your opponents will likely retain their first round picks. A main question you are considering is whether it makes sense to retain your first round pick; we need to know what your chances are of getting back an elite player in the first if you make that choice, and without knowing the above we are kind of blindly guessing here.

@BusterD, yes, having Zeke and Hunt would be a huge competitive advantage. But having Zeke, Hunt and Thomas would be more of an advantage, no? You can’t simply look at the two keepers, you need to compare the two scenarios, something which you are completely ignoring. The fact that you are getting Thomas in a round where you usually choose kickers doesn’t negate that fact, it amplifies it. Now to be clear, I’m not saying that he can get Zeke, Hunt and Thomas (though it is possible), I’m saying you need to compare whether you prefer Zeke and Hunt to Zeke, Thomas and player X or Hunt, Thomas and player Y. Basically your analysis is incomplete.

@DFWB, to a certain extent you are talking out of both sides of your mouth: on the one hand you say it’s all about value, so you need to take Thomas, but then you ignore the value of Hunt and say taking Hunt over Zeke is an enormous mistake. So are we maximizing value or not? Or do you believe Zeke in the first is better value than Hunt in the 3rd?

Here’s how I see it. I completely agree with DFWB and others, the value of getting an elite wr1 like Thomas in the 13th is impossible to get away from. I’m not taking Brown because I prefer Zeke in the first. I’m not taking McKinnon because to me Hunt is a better value in the 3rd than Mckinnon in the 9th, because although there is a greater round differential with McKinnon, there is a decreasing marginal value associated with picks and I believe that the value difference between Hunt and McKinnon is greater than the value difference between a third and a ninth round pick.

That leaves us with Hunt and Zeke, and there i can’t give you a clear answer. Zeke is unquestionably the safer choice, both because you know for certain what player you are getting with your first round pick and because we can have more confidence in Zeke meeting expectations this season, whereas Hunt has more question marks. That being said, i think the Hunt paranoia is somwhat overblown, and to the extent you have Huntphobia, his value is still his value: you can take him as a 3rd round value pick and trade him, retaining that first round value. Moreover, I would prefer Hunt and Zeke/Brown/Barkley, for example, over Zeke and whoever I might get in the third. So again, figuring out the chances of landing an elite player if you keep your first round pick is incredibly important. I guess in the end it depends on your risk tolerance.

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Definitely see your point here and you make a good point. You have to consider the opportunity cost. The possibility of keeping Hunt for a 3rd and seeing who you get in the first is worth considering. There is definitely a risk/reward trade off though given it is completely random draft order. If he gets an early pick in the first 1-5 picks, then he could very well pick up a Zeke/AB level producer. However, if he ends up being shafted and in the middle/back of the path, I’d say chances of a T1 RB/WR are slim to none. But maybe you get a T2 or T3. So it becomes valuing Hunt + T2/T3 vs. Zeke + a much lower tier WR/RB

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my analysis wasnt incomplete, more i didnt think my entire thought process needed to be on display for this one. there is only one senario where we KNOW he can get all three. and thats if he has the 1.01. since we dont know if he does, we cant assume that. if he does then yeah, answers change with that info, but with the info provided, having 2 top end RBs is what cannot be replaced. because im not going to sit here and assume that. especially since he didnt include that info. from that we can all but lock in that he doesnt because who wouldnt provide that info? so the fact is we dont know. so we have to go off of what we do know.

its a 16 man. everyone needs 2 RBs at least. thats 32. considering that as a player you want to have the RBs that own their backfield and not get stuck with a bunch of committee guys, and the improbability of NOT getting stuck with committee guys without keeping zeke and hunt is high. i mean the whole reason WRs dont hold as much value is that there are so so so many more startable ones. im not ignoring the value of thomas, in fact i agreed that its an insane value. but if its me, i prefer most any scenario that guarantees me hunt and zeke. BECAUSE its a 16 man, and because we dont know who the keepers are and who will be available. you can hypothesis who will be available and when, but chances are you will be wrong and thats flawed. we dont know who has what players, and for what rounds. all we do know is what he can keep. and, we know that the more poeple in a league, the more value is put onto the positions with positional scarcity. making RBs that much more valuable. now if we had the info of knowing that he had, lets say pick 4 overall, and we knew that for some reason that there would be 4 RBs that we would like to have being thrown back into the pool, then sure. take hunt and thomas and your other RB that will be top 10 and move on. but info provided, im taking the RBs and filling up on a position that is much easier to fill in rounds 2, 4 and 5.

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@Kaiser, that is sensationalist. Assuming the top 32 players are gone is just smart planning, and then when someone shows up it is simply an unexpected value. Saying it is not a safe assumption is just poor analysis. Is it exactly what will happen, no, but you plan for the worst because if you don’t and you are wrong then you have an entire fantasy season to stew on why you didn’t see it coming.

No Hunt won’t be a bust, but as valuable as last season is pretty unlikely. Where as Zeke will likely have better value.

@Guinness no it’s really poor planing because it’s not the reality. Planning for the worst is fine in general when putting together a draft strategy but when you decide to give up your first round pick because you wrongly deduce that only third round players will be available, you’re making a decision based on bad information.

FACT: there will be several first round grade players, let alone top 32, available going into the draft.

FACT: multiple players will give up their first round pick to keep players, some maybe basing this decision on the ill-conceived notion that the top 32 will be gone anyway. Without really getting into it and just off the top of my head, players that will almost certainly be kept at a first round value include Gurley, Bell, Julio, Green, probably Gordon and Cook, depending on keeper rules maybe D Johnson and Beckham. We are quickly approaching half of the first round being surrendered. Other possibilities could be Freeman, Evans, Fournette, McCoy…

Basically, the chances of getting Zeke, Brown or Barkley back could very easily be better than a coin flip, and I would feel pretty safe betting that the majority of those who select in the first round will get top 32 players. So to just assume the top two rounds of players will be gone is to overlook a very real and potentially game changing option. That, my friend, is poor analysis.

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Yes, I believe Zeke in the first is a better value than Hunt in the 3rd.

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No, it is not a coin flip. It is just as likely he gets an early pick as a late pick. Add in the probability, unlikely, they the other 15 people in his league decide not to pick 1st rounders. Which, in this thread it is evidence people value the first rounders.

Your analysis will leave him without a planned option should the cards not fall his way. Take my advice and he is prepared, take yours and risk a bad draft. FACT: your facts aren’t facts, you are guessing. FACT: If you use words like maybe, several, could be…you don’t know. If you don’t know, be prepared.

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You must keep Michael Thomas. His value above a 13th round replacement in a 16 team league is MASSIVE. if u are in the back end of the first you might keep zeke. his value above replacement is still decent but not overwhelming. you start out keeping a WR and RB giving you some flexibility in the draft to build the rest of your team based on the best player available. McKinnon’s points above 9th round replacement is actually really solid.

Points above replacement to me is the only factor when making this call.

No way should you be able to keep a first round pick in the second btw. That’s weak.

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