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Keeper question?


#1

Long-term plus this year, Jay Ajayi or Jordan Howard?


#2

I’m personally torn on this one as well. Dolphins are currently the UP and coming offense opposed to the bears who have currently taken a step back in my opinion. But then the question rises on ajayi’s health ( bad knee(s) ) I think Howard is gonna last longer than ajayi and hopefully the bears get their sh!t together within the next few years.


#3

I’d pick Howard personally for the long term. I get Ajayi is on a better offense, but people seem to forget the guy ran for around 49% of his 1200+ yards in THREE games. He had 11 sub 100 yard games and to top it all off the guy has the knees of a 60 year old man. I watched a superior talent in lamar miller struggle in miami and I want no part of the Ajayi experiment.


#4

Ajayi needs his offensive line to be great as well. I believe in both those games of 200 + yards that pouncy was in at center. Regardless, id take Howard.


#5

I’m in the same predicament in a keeper league. I think what makes me an Ajayi believer is that the guy only started 12 games, like @Bigb89 said his offensive line was injured for a lot of them, and he still managed 1272 yards. Imagine what he’s capable of if he plays all 16 and his line stays healthy. The fact that they’re trying to get him more involved in the passing game is also a plus. I agree you can’t ignore the knee issues, “ticking time bomb” is never something you want one of your fantasy players referred to as. Because of that, you have to think of Howard as being more long term. I just personally think based on the current situations they’re in, injury potential aside, Ajayi will produce more. Whats also funny is that people are so quick to say Ajayi scored the majority of his yards in 3 games, what about Howard scoring half his touchdowns in just one?


#6

Just call me metrics man!! Also this is why I put no faith in Ajayi.

Note: Points based on standard scoring because in PPR this shouldn’t even be a question.

Ajayi had 3 amazing games (2 of which against the same team), 1 solid RB1 game against a bad defense (NYJ), and only broke into double digits in 2 other games against bad teams (Ten & SF). That is only one half of his season. His biggest tell to me is his YPC. It sits currently at 4.5, but if you take away the 3 giant games he had it drops to 3.8.

Howard has a YPC of 5.3, but to be fair let’s take away his best 3 games. It drops all the way to 5.2, ok let’s drop is most efficient games and it drops to 5.

Howard’s only limitation is his TD count and that is sure to positively regress.


#7

Just out of curiosity, if you had to predict Ajayi’s and Howard’s final numbers after this coming season, what do you think they would be?


#8

this is just getting too weird. i agree with you. ajayi is a locked and loaded 1 time wonder. he had 4 good games last year. thats really it. in those 4 games he was over 600 yards and 5 TDs. so 1/4 of his season accounted for half of his stats. he is just a bust in waiting man. where howard, im not in love with him this year, but ooo man long term? holy crap the potential this kid has is ridiculous. a zone runner in a zone running scheme with a great front three zone blocking O line in his center and 2 guards… i mean good god thats a great start for a young prospect.


#9

I 100% agree that Howard is the long term choice, I said that from the beginning, and in no way do I think what he did last season isn’t incredible. He just has a lot going against him and I hate the situation that he’s in. He plays on a terrible offense, the Bears were 29th in the league in points scored, and it can be argued that they got worse during this offseason. If teams stack the box against him, and the rest of the offense can’t produce, then that will surely negatively effect him. He has shown that he struggled in the passing game, and the Bears brought in some other options to possibly use in that position. They’ll be playing from behind and he could have less chances to score. The Bears have some tough games to start the season - Falcons, Vikings, Steelers, Panthers. @Guinness @BusterD you guys are stat guys, there must be some data that shows RBs fantasy relevance on sub par offenses.

All I’m saying about Ajayi is that if him and his line stay healthy, which of course is a big if, and Miami gives him the ball as much as they say they are going to, then he can be an absolute fantasy stud in this league.

I have a feeling that it will be Howard’s numbers in decline this season, not Ajayi’s. Water bet?


#10

It’s ok @BusterD, I got you good on another thread.

@Gwill250 I had a lot of fun with this.

I am banking on Howard’s per touch production going down, but his TD conversion and usage in the red zone to rise. I am predicting Ajayi’s usage to go down (based on Gase’s and the Dolphin’s history), and his passing game usage to rise.

Howard = bottom of the top 10
Ajayi = bottom of the top 20

Edit: I have done some bad offense trending and cannot see a correlation. It seems like some teams keep with the battle plan and numbers are inconsistent or the team just goes all out on the RBs. See Trent Richardson.


#11

Definitely Howard long term. Ajayi may have a better year overall due the fact that the Bears will be down a lot in games this year. Dolphins should compete in more games if not lead in more of their games. Ajayi wasn’t super consistent last year either. He had a few big games but overall inconsistent. Howard on the other hand was great when John Fox when actually gave him the ball. I d o believe that the bears will commit to the run and Howard could get 10-12 TDs but they will be forced to pass a ton late in games.(Same as last year) The Bears have been rebuilding for the past 2 years. Their offensive line is getting better and overall their team will get better in the next few years; which, will help Howard produce 10 RB numbers week to week. If you’re patient this year, Howard could be the next Walter Payton for the Bears!


#12

Thank you everyone for the feedback, I did have both on my team and it is a three player keeper. I traded Ajayi and Keep Howard, now I feel even more comfortable.