Keeper Strategy: best player or best value?

12-team 1/2 PPR + 1 pt for 1st downs.
Picking 3rd overall.

I’ve got to choose one keeper between Hopkins (2nd), Brady (6th but not really interested), Ertz (7th) or Edelman (14th).

Edelman obviously poses the best value by far, but it’s hard not to look at my #3 draft position and grab a top RB and come back with Hopkins in RD2 with the 22nd overall pick.

Am I crazy to give up that 14th-round value for the prospect of Hopkins late in the 2nd round?

Oh…and I could care less about future years. We only have 1 keeper per year in my league, and I want to win now.

picking 3rd makes this much easier. hopkins. i have no interest in keeping a QB, or a TE. and edelman, aothough great, has been dealing with a lot of injuries. his value is there, but to not be able to use him for 4 weeks, and then have him potentially get hurt again… its just not worth the risk. hopkins on the other hand, you get decent value, for a player who could be the number 1 WR. and as crazy as it is, his floor might not even be low without injury. i could see him being WR8 at the lowest. the cat has had one bad year and thats because the QB carousel finally caught up to him with the lobster himself slingin it to him and everyone else on the opposing team. im keeping hopkins with confidence.

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Playing to win NOW… Go Hopkins… Get you a stud RB1 paired with top 2 WR… You should have a shot at winning

The answer is you keep the best value. But Hopkins is the better value here.

This is because early draft picks are exponentially more valuable than later ones, and there is a declining scale of value the later you get into drafts. So despite the fact that you are getting hopkins at 1 round of value and Edelman at 8 rounds of value, that one round is actually a greater value when we are talking about the first round vs the sixth.

Hopkins is the best player and best value