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Keeperrrrr Question. Help!


#1

Hey guys, looking for some keeper help.

League info:10 team league. Full PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 Superflex (QB, RB, WR or TE).

Can only keep ONE guy.

Keepers:
Mike Gillislee in the 9th round
Stefon Diggs in the 9th round
Matthew Stafford in the 10th round
Kelvin Benjamin in the 11th round

Thanks!!


#2

I think that’s a toss up between Benjamin and Gillislee. I’d personally go Gillislee in that situation. Some people still like Benjamin’s upside though.


#3

New England backfield always scares me though. Was originally thinking between Benjamin and Diggs. And considering I’m seeing them closely ranked, I’d probably have to go with the better value with Benjamin.

Not too excited about that.


#4

Gilli in the 9th is a small price to pay for a potential RB1.


#5

My heart be still, I got guineas to flip on gilly bear!

For me it’s gilly or diggs. If you are worried about it being ne backfield, go diggs. I lean gilly hard though.


#6

It’s a superflex?

Stafford all day.


#7

@BusterD, I still think he gets >200 carries. But yes I coming around on Gillibear.


#8

Doesn’t the Superflex change your mind a bit? Stafford would be a phenomenal Superflex play and in that kind of league (essentially 2 QB) QB value is much higher. Usually even scrubs are gone by the 10th.


#9

Oh yeah that is a good point.


#10

i always take into account position scarcity. i have been beating that drum a bit too much lately haha. but its true. sure i can get a QB that will score 50 more points in the year, but if i dont address RB quick enough im going to lose 75 points in that position. budgets and balances my good friend. i can always find good QB talent to stream or draft. good RB talent is gone by round 4. plus its a 10 team. if everyone around you takes 2 QBs before you take 1, you are still getting the 19th and 20th best QB. which is project (fantasy points wise) as mariota and palmer, who are still each stated out to score over 320 points for the season. do you know how many RBs are projected to do that? two. you can get good QBs any time. its very difficult to get good RBs.


#11

I also use the position scarcity argument. For that reason, in a 2 QB league, QB is the position of greatest scarcity. Barring injury or terrible play, only 32 QBs play each week. If those, there are approximately 10 that are not going to be reliable enough to start, even as a flex.

And Gillislee is a potential RB1/2, but even in games he starts, there will probably be 2 RBs from his team that will play and get a percentage of the RB production.


#12

a percentage of the RB production, but not full time. sure, there are more RBs that play in a week than QB. but you are getting full production from your 19th and 20th QB. your 19th and 20th RB will be on the field half of the time, getting you much less production. i can deal with a lower QB production, what i cant deal with is lower RB production, with less play time. the 20th RB is going to score you 180ish points for the season. the 20th QB will score you 320ish points on the season. so which one would you rather have? im taking the 140 point bump im getting from choosing that lower end QB. besides it is a 10 man league. QB has no position scacity in a 10 man league. if everyone has 3 QBs there are still 2 left over. if everyone has 3 RBs, there are more left over, but guess what, those guys dont score. and if they do, its not enough to win you any games. you need higher end RBs to win, otherwise you are just leaving 0s in your starting lineup. and thats just not true for QB in a 10 team.


#13

Okaaaaaaaay.

So everything you said is basically true. But if you are trying to help this guy with a keeper, you probably want to get him the best value. Essentially, all of the players he lists are a value based on this year’s ADP and projected production. In a 2 QB, or Superflex league, you WANT to play 2QBs every week … just like you want to play 2 RBs. That skews ADP significantly.

Stafford was #9 QB last year, a QB1. His ADP in 10 team 2 QB leagues is round 6/7. Gillislee’s ADP is round 10. 12 QBs are taken by the end of rd 5, so if he keeps Stafford, he frees up one of those first 5 rounds to hammer out a good RB crew.

I don’t mind playing chicken with the QB position in a 1QB league. I can make one of the lesser QBs work or even stream the position. If you are playing 2 QBs, you can’t do that. I could do the math for you, if you’d like.


#14

its not basically true, it is true. you can find QBs anywhere anytime, what you cannot find are RBs anywhere anytime.

as for your ADP that you just looked up, they have not updated that yet. want proof? look who goes two picks before matt stafford. tony romo. do you really think anyone is picking up tony romo in the 6th round? mike gillislee will not be going in the 10th, thats a fact. he will be going around the 6th just like stafford. so value, stafford still wins by 1 round, but position scarcity, mike gillislee takes the cake by A LOT.

so yes you look for value, but you also look for talent and opportunity. gillislee has all three. stafford also has all three, gillislee just happens to have more in unequivocally the most scarce position of all. yes, even in a 10 MAN league. its not a 12 man. if its 12 man, everything i have said changes. because in a 10 man, youre not playing chicken. you are just playing the numbers. and the numbers say, i can have three starting full time QBs without any question. i wont have that with RBs if i wait as late as i can with QBs. or do you need me to do the math for you? i can if you would like.


#15

Failed to mention this but the guys in my league (for some reason) refuse to start two QBs. I always see a RB or WR in that spot on most teams. Completely baffles me but that definitely needs to be taken into consideration with my decision.

I was leaning stafford myself but honestly, because of what I mentioned, I think I could probably draft stafford around the round I would have to keep him in.

Because of that and the fact that people aren’t too high on Diggs, I’m torn between Gillislee and Benjamin.

I have till draft day to decide so maybe I’ll see how the Pats utilize Gillislee this preseason to help decide. Benjamin looked pretty good last night though. Tough call.

Might have to go with the more value in Benjamin in the 11th, especially since it’s a 3 WR league.


#16

For ADP, I went to Fantasy Football Calculator. Stafford’s ADP in 2 QB league setting is 57 and Gillislee’s is 101. Stafford is the 14th QB, a high end QB 2. Gillislee is RB 37, a high end RB4.

You can get Gillislee later in the draft, or someone better. But if you love Gillislee, you will be able to get him after you would get Stafford.

And if your league mates aren’t playing WB in the Superflex, that is a head scratcher. Even Buster seems to agree that QBs score more points than RBs. Last year in my CBS league (6 points for all TDs), the top 4 and 8 of the top 10 players were QBs. DJ and Zeke were the other 2 players.


#17

yes i know where you went… it shows tony romo being drafted in the 6th round. im not trusting those numbers.

this is what you are looking at. it CLEARLY shows tony romo being drafted before stafford. these are not up to date. i dont know why because i always trust this site too. so again, these numbers are wrong, dont go off of them.

as for your league, sounds like an amature league. in a 12 man PPR 2 QB league, there are only 3 QBs im taking in the first round. not 8. on the flip side his league is also pretty amature since no one puts any stock into a QB in a super flex. so he needs to find that balance. between your crazy idea that you HAVE to have 2 top end QBs and my belief that you dont need 2 top end QBs in a 10 man, he should be able to find that nice middle ground. which starts and ends with solid depth where you need it. which would be WRs and RBs. in the end, it also comes down to knowing your league. and it seems like he does.


#18

First of all, you are wrong, Buster. Tony Romo is NOT on the ADP list for 2017. Second of all, it is pretty lame to infer from any of my arguments that my 12 team league is amateur. I haven’t referenced any of the team or draft info from my league. All I pointed out was the actual points scored. Unless you are saying that 6 point TDs makes a league amateur.

And I never said you have to have 2 top end QBs. I said that you should have 2. Are you saying that you would not play a QB in the Superflex position? I am using logic to make my point, and I am staying away from personal attacks … one of the signs of maturity.

So let me do the math for you … again.

Using real numbers from 2016. The top 3 QBs scored approximately 480 points. The number 10 QB, Prescott, scored 348. The dropoff from 10-20 was not significant at 33 points. But the dropoff after those QBs becomes significant quickly. The number 23 QB was Wentz, who scored 38 points less than #20 Tyrod. The number 30 QB, which you infer is usable was Keenum who scored 154 points, which is 161 less than the #20 QB.

The top 3 RB range was skewed mainly by Bell’s suspension, but DJ was top with 409. Let’s average the top 3 at 380. Jordan Howard was RB10 with 231 points. Just as with the QBs, the dropoff from top 3 to #10 is huge. Coleman was the #20 RB with 190 points, which is 8 more points than with QBs (go ahead and say “GOTCHA”). Duke Johnson was #30 with 146 points, only 8 points less than the #30 QB. Hightower was the #40 RB, scoring 126 points. Deangelo was #50 with 99 points.

Math and logic blew up your RB vs QB scarcity argument.


#19

Stafford fer Schureeeeee


#20

Alright man. If you want to deny the screenshot of the exact site you are looking at, that’s fine man. There is no discussing with you so I’m done here. As for the insult thing, yeah you’re right, I shouldn’t have sunk to your level. Since you did infer a few times that im an idiot. Hey ill even be the bigger guy here, and I won’t poke holes in your math and logic. You win big guy.