If you could have Kelce or Reed, all things equal, whats your vote? Also, this is a keeper league, each guy with 2 years remaining - 2nd round value for Kelce vs 10th round for Reed, if it is close.
Reed might have more upside the way Alex Smith plays, but he’s going to get hurt and miss time.
If by having Kelce you lose your second round pick in the draft, then he’s way too expensive.
I’ll take a healthy reed over Kelce all day, every day.
I never keep TEs in keeper leagues unless its ridiculous value but probably need more information on your league settings. How many keepers do you get? Whats the limitations of keeping, etc.
But without that information, I’ll start by saying this. I wouldn’t waste a keeper on either of those players at those values. Kelce has never been in the same tier as Gronk for me. Gronk is elite and in his own tier and everyone else is just way in the back. In no world am I spending a 2nd round pick on Kelce, ever. He’s not that good.
As for your question, assuming both are healthy, here’s what I’ll say:
I prefer reed to Kelce. I had some doubts going into this season about kelce and although it’s still too early to tell, I would be worried as a Kelce owner. I wasn’t sure how he’d deal with both smith (who relies heavily on TEs his entire career via davis and Kelce) and Nagy (heavy TE usage) leaving and being replaced by Mahomes.
Mahomes came from Texas Tech air raid offense. He probably barely even knows what a TE is, never mind relying on them as his first read in his passing attack. Their connection was off clearly but that’s not what worries me. They can build chem over time. It’s moreso that when I was watching the game, Kelce was rarely the first read for Mahomes. This is in stark contrast to when Smith played where Kelce was predominantly his first read. I think the opportunities for Kelce won’t be as juicy as years past.
Having said that, He’ll still finish as a top 6 TE, he’s too talented not to and the TE landscape is a complete wasteland. I just don’t think he’ll return value to people who invested an early draft pick to him.
Now with Smith paired with arguably the 2nd most talented tight end in the league, if Reed stays healthy, he’s a potential league winner. Just a matter of whether or not he can remain healthy.
I’d rather have reed though and if he goes down, I’ll stream.
Neither costs a draft pick of any kind, unless I kept one of them next year. You can keep 3 players at their previous year draft value. Currently my best 3 keeper values for next year are rbs, which is why the 10th round tag on reed is enticing. If Reed kills it, and no other good keeper value surfaces for me, I might be inclined to use a keeper and 10th round pick on the 2nd best TE if Reed becomes that. There is no way I would keep Kelce in the 2nd round.
I like Reed a lot with Smith (to Mike’s points) but also am not super concerned about Kelce, I still think he will get his. Reed’s injury history has always scared me away from him though.
Currently sitting with Cook and Olsen on IR, and working out a deal for either one of them (guy values them pretty equally).
Got it. Makes more sense.
I could be be wrong on Kelce for sure and when I say he won’t be as good, I didn’t mean he would suck. I just mean I dont think he returns TE2 value which is where he was drafted.
You have a tonne of TEs man. Honestly, I would dump Olsen if you can. He’s old and that injury is never going to get better. If you can sell Kelce right now for a good WR/RB, I would 100% do that and roll with reed. ANd if reed goes down, just stream or pick up Davis. He’s shown he can easily produce TE1 numbers with reed out. I want the TE attached to smith though at the end of the day is what it comes down to.
To be clear - I have Cook and Olsen, and am looking to acquire either Reed or Kelce. lol
Drafted Olsen, and snagged Cook as a temporary fix off waivers.
Oh i gotcha. Go for reed. He’ll be a lot cheaper and like I said, don’t think Kelce is worth it.
Thanks for the advice man. Honestly he seems to value them evenly, but I think I am leaning Reed for sure. Looking at doing AP/Tate for Reed and either Hyde or Lynch. Leaning Hyde.
By tate you mean Golden Tate? I think might be too much to give up on your side.
Between hyde and lynch, probably prefer hyde cause I like Clevelands Defense better.
AP going to be a pretty strong start for this week.
Yeah, Id like to wait to do the deal until next week so I can use AP this week, but I do not think he lasts the whole season. Would still have Adams, Hilton, DT, and Robby Anderson at WR if I make that deal. Also have Barkley, Conner and Bell at RB, so Hyde would a RB3 backup.
100% agree with your assessment of AP. Would get the extra week of production though and sell high.
I’m personally not high on Tate as well but I also don’t think you need to give up that much for a high risk injury prone TE and an RB in on a bad team either. Hopefully Tate has a big game here and you can sell both high and upgrade other parts in your roster.
Those are stud RBs for sure, but the risk with Conner is high with Bell and having Hyde as the only back up would not sit well with me. Another piece of advice is go and try and buy low on Aaron jones. After watching Williams run last week, it’s made me realize Jones is going to have a shot at the job upon his return. Williams runs like a dude with no toes.
LOL - I already have Jones stashed, as well as Penny.