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Known Commodities vs YOLO Picks


#1

Im just curious how you guys play fantasy? Personally, I almost always take a known Commodity over “potential” upside… for example I’ll take Gurley, Bell, DJ, Gordon, Kamara all ahead of someone like Barkley… sure Barkley could be electric but Id rather not fuck up my draft on the first pick… thats just an example I apply the logic all through the draft until probably round 8+… at that point I aim purely for upside… like I said im just curous how other people draft.


#2

it always depends for me. thats usually my teir breaks. guys i know will produce at a high level, then guys that should. then i go to the next step down of guys i know will produce at that level, then the guys that i think should. i might end up with a team of all known commodities, or i might end up with a team of mixed know and unknown. but ill never end up with a team of all unknown. its just too dangerous to do. you could end up with a garbage team real quick that way. but im also not going to let the past dictate my future, and im not going to let a potential bad pick keep me from making a good one. so ill still take barkley over kamara. the workload is there for him to take. in fact i dont think he has a choice he WILL have a workload. barkley is someone you shouldnt be scared of, but i will still take the guys i think end ahead of him still because of how much is known about them, like the ones you listed.


#3

Rookie RBs are not nearly as risky as people seem to think. At least the ones who are clearly drafted to be starters. It’s the easiest transition in the game and young legs/less wear and tear is often a plus. There’s a long history of rookie RBs being great, and great values in fantasy. I’d be fine with taking everyone you listed other than Kamara over Barkley, but I’d personally take him over Gordon too.

He’s my 5th pick in every format because the talent is obvious and even if he turns out to be inefficient, the volume is going to be huge, and being an elite receiver insulates him against negative game script considerably. I think he’s amoung the highest ceiling AND highest floor players you can find.


#4

Kamara is like my breaking point with that… I generally avoid hyper efficient players. I’d still take all the other guys mentioned ahead of Barkley, including Gordon. But I struggle to pull the trigger on Kamara… I’m just glad I won’t be in a spot where I have to make that choice in any of my drafts.


#5

Yeah I personally don’t think I’d take Kamara ahead of Barkley because of the things you listed… But I would probably take Gordon over him. We know what the chargers do… they have a great offense and they will be able to march down the field and Gordon WILL be used a lot in the passing game and he WILL be in the top end of all RBs for attempts inside the 5/10… Barkley has more of a David Johnson skill set where he needs the ball in space… just handing it to him up the middle isn’t going to go well. The thing with DJ is even tho we respect him as a top end NFL talent, there’s no hiding how inefficient he can be with his touches sometimes. The difference is DJ WILL score… A lot. There were a lot of weeks in 2016 where an overall terrible performance was held up by 2 random scores… If Barkley isn’t THE go to guy in scoring situations then I really worry about his weekly reliability. My hot take is that Saquon will be a top 7 RB while finishing outside the top 24 in over 40% of his games. Now I won’t be shocked at all if he finishes top 3 and has a 2016 DJ type of season lol… just wanted to list some concerns I have with him. You can’t go wrong with taking him at any point in the first round… he should return first round value for sure, unless he has a major injury (knock on wood).


#6

This isn’t really on topic for the post, but I have to take exception to that characterization of DJ. You can absolutely give the ball to DJ up the middle. He’s one of the best power runners in football, in addition to being the best receiving back in the league by a wide margin. Barkley’s absolute ceiling is what DJ already is.


#7

Well that’s fair… DJ is just the obvious comp so I kind of let some of my Barkley analysis bleed over onto DJ… You’re right though, DJ doesn’t fuck around… He knows when to cut it up and take the 2-3 yards and he knows how to use his power. That’s not to say Barkley couldn’t push a pile with those two Hydraulic presses he calls legs… I just think Barkley has a lot to learn about football sense. I watched PSU play every week (being a PA resident), and Barkley would come up to a closing hole with two 215lb defenders there (that he could probably carry 40 yards on his legs) and instead of blasting the hole he’d run around in circles looking for the 80 yard play, losing 4+ yards in the process… did it multiple times in every single game. You can’t do that in the NFL where you got 325LB linemen who run a faster 10 yard dash than some of the fastest WRs. If Barkley can get over that inherent need to score every time he touches the ball… I think he could be THE premier NFL talent.


#8

He definitely needs to learn when to be more decisive, but DJ did the same stuff in college.


#9

Honestly I didn’t watch a lot of college ball when DJ was playing… worked too much back then. But yeah Im not saying Barkley can’t learn… just that he’s going to need to… Like I said he could be #1 overall this year and it wouldn’t shock me at all… He’s still there in my top 6 RBs despite my concerns. Luckily for me I’ll never have to make the decision because Barkley seems to be rising in mocks now that the masses are doing them more. You can make the argument for going Barkley over Gordon… but to take him in the top 4… absolutely no reason for that.


#10

Agreed. I’d personally take him at 5.


#11

I don’t think its a fair comparison for the guys you listed. Taking DJ/Gurley/Bell/Zeke over Barkley is a no brainer for me because Barkley’s upside is what those players already are IMO. So you don’t really have much a risk reward trade off there.

I think the better question or example known commodity vs YOLO picks is the Kamara/Barkley vs Melvin Gordon comparison. In those types of situations, I typically lean towards higher ceiling guys and am willing to take the risk, especially on rookie RBs. I watch enough college tape to feel comfortable doing it. But I couldn’t fault anyone who prefers the other route. Just a matter of preference.