Leonard Fournette is a RB 1 or RB 2?

In a standard league do you think Leonard Fournette is a RB 1 or RB 2? Which round would you draft him in?

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I think he’s right on the RB1/RB2 fringe in standard and being drafted late 2nd to early 3rd. I would not feel comfortable having him as my top RB unless I drafted 2 stud WR before Fournette or a stud WR & Gronk.

Good luck!

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As @cousinal111 said, I’d not feel comfortable drafting him as my RB1 unless I have a stud WR1 and WR2. You want your RB1 to be a guy you know will produce and putting that all on a rookie is risky. I’d draft him as an RB2 though if he dropped to me in the bottom of the second/top of the third.

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I have him as my RB11, so he’s a 1 for me. I can see taking him in round three, sort of in the Crowell/Miller range, and I’m comfortable rolling him out as the 1 on my team.

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Honestly I would take him RB3. He has no guaranteed carries, and for all we know he could be the backup for Ivory this season.
Ivory did not have a good 2016 season, but it is unclear how much of that was his fault. They had the 22nd ranked O-Line and a QB who was inaccurate at best. Ivory can reasonably run for 4.3 YPC, which would be the same as David Johnson I might add. If he does, I don’t see Fournette taking over as a bell cow, and the value you are drafting Fournette at is assuming bell cow usage.
Alright, so let’s assume bell cow usage. The same issues in JAX are still there, and I don’t see YPC jumping above 4.3 for a rookie in this offense. So he isn’t going to kill it in yards, but what about TDs? The lead back in JAX in 2016 received a tiny 7 goal line carries, and in 2015 it was 5.

Personally I believe people are drafting Fournette WAY to early, and there is little to no chance he returns value. If you are drafting him for a keeper, then you will still have to use a very high keeper penalty on him. I am open to being proven wrong, but I don’t see a way he matches value this year or next.

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While I agree with some of what @Guinness said, Chris Ivory isn’t starting. Fournette will start & Yeldon will likely spell him on passing downs.

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Have you seen anything from Jacksonville pegging him as a bell cow or even as the starter?

I haven’t yet, which i thought is weird. Usually you get the “man we can’t wait to see what Fournette can produce” platitude.

I think the fact they picked him 4th overall means he should start right away. I’m with you though, I’m avoiding him in drafts unless he really slides…especially avoiding in PPR.

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Draft capital at the RB position pretty much guarantees him a hefty workload, but the question is: What has changed from last year in which we saw Yeldon/Ivory suffer from poor offensive line play and negative game scripts? The defense should be better than last year with the additions they made in free agency, but I’m still doubtful that Bortles is a starting NFL QB. Workload should set him with a safe late RB2-early RB3 floor and his talent great enough that RB1 ceiling could be attainable if everything shakes out his way. I’m less confident in that outcome though.

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ill be clear in my response to start…i do NOT think he will have a year like zeke. but i will use a lot of comparisons to give you reasons why i think you are incorrect my good sir.

so, MR. Fournette. what is the situation he walks into? he walks into a bad run game with a bad O line. so what do the Jags do after they draft him? they upgrade their O line with cam robinson, and get him a HUGE fullback in Marquez Williams. will this fix everything? hell no. but it will help. as for him walking into an RBC… not gonna happen. chris ivory is, and has always been, pedestrian at best. yeldon has potential, but really only in the spelling someone on third down situations. remember what zeke walked into? RBs everywhere. starting RBs too. Mcfadden and Morris are both people who have started on other teams. they are both good running backs. yet zeke took the lions share. why? because he was just better than them. and what do you do with your best players? you play them, as much as possible without wearing them out. so yeah, he wont be on the field the whole time, but you also dont want that.

fact of the matter is, they are very identical. same height, similar speed, fournette is 15 pounds heavier, and zeke can jump 3 inches higher. then look at how they run. both love to lower that shoulder and drive, both are super athletic. so what we get to see, is what would have happened to zeke if he landed on a team that didnt have the best O line in the league. im willing to bet its still damn good. i dont think the jags leaning on him is a crazy thought, so i can see him getting 20 rushes a game. lets say its less than what you said, and he sits at 4 yards a carry. thats 80 yards a game. thats 1,280 yards. lets say once every 30 rushes he gets a TD. thats 10-11 TDs. i dont think he gets a lot of receptions, so 30 receptions sounds reasonable. lets say 8 yards per. thats 240 yards. receiving TDs for an RB are tough, lets just give him 1-2. so that pusts us at 1500 plus yards, and 12 TDs. his current ADP has him going at 2.08 in standard, right behind murray, howard, lynch, and gurley. and right before miller, crowell, mixon, hyde, mccaffery, and spencer ware. alll of which are going in the third. i am 100% ok with this. because not a single one of them are going to get leaned on like fournette, and none of them are as good as him. you can argue mixon sure, but im saying no. and of the people going before him, i only think he does better than gurley. well, and maybe lynch. if they dont lean on him.

if you argue that he isnt locked into those 20 carries, you’re just wrong. you dont use your 4th over all pick… and not use that player. the only way you do that, is if you already have a stud in place but he is getting older, or end of contract and you are planning for the future. that is 100% not the case here. its a clear upgrade. so if you think they wont run him 5 times a quarter, youre nuts. because hell, they may run him much much more than that. and he may end up at the 5.0 yards a carry. (i doubt it but maybe) thats 1600 yards rushing instead. so for me, barring any injuries, to have a player locked in at somewhere between 1300 and 1600 yards on the ground and to get him for a late 2nd, im pretty happy with that. especially in a standard.

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Good response, I am worried about the TDs though. I mean the total goal line carries over the last 2 years for the top back in Jax add up to your TD prediction.

@BusterD water bet on carries?

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I believe today is the first day of training camp for the jags so we’ll see if any news or hype comes out.

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sure they didnt the last 2 years… neither did the cowboys before zeke. the type of plays you run change with the players you have.

so you want another water bet on a RB? haha im game. not including games he is injured, he will average 20 carries a game.

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I can roll with Average 20 carries a game.

Water Bet!!! @brookscarmean

So the two are:
Guinness bets Gillibear doesn’t hit 250 carries.
BusterD bets Fournette will average 20 carries per game (for games played only)

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tricky tricky! i said games he isnt injured in. so if he rushes 1 time and gets hurt, that doesnt go to his total. :slight_smile:

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err, average i mean

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I will still agree to that.

bet! :couple:

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Rookie RB hype is a real thing. I’m not buying it this year.

I don’t think they’ll all be flops, but for their ADP (or auction value) I’ll let them go elsewhere.

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I’m a big Fournette fan so I’m a tad bit biased, but I think realistically if he’s available in the 3rd round he’s worth the gamble. Rookie RB’s are risky, but Fournette has the recipe to return value. Can he be an RB1? Possibly but it’s not likely, although the ceiling is certainly there with his talent. I DO think they will use him and he won’t have to share carries. Opportunity and talent add up to a good combination in what I want for a RB. I think he’s a solid RB2 with the possibility of RB1 upside (although I temper those expectations). I think getting a solid RB2 in the 3rd round is pretty solid value. The only thing I don’t like is his team and the likelihood they’ll be playing from behind.

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