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Marshawn / Kerryon / R Freeman


#1

Hey guys, looking ahead to my draft in a few weeks, right now it looks like (based on keepers / players available) I’ll be able to have my pick of 1 of those 3 RBs in the 4th round.
My core will be:

Hunt (keeper)
Drake (keeper)
Ajayi / Lamar Miller (whichever is available 3rd round)
Julio (1st round pick)
Adams (keeper)
Hilton / Baldwin (2nd round pick)

Wondering if I should go with the upside of Kerryon / Royce Freeman (lean Kerryon there), or take someone with a sure workload like Lynch?

What do you guys think?

  • Also trying to decide between Mixon 4th round keeper, or Drake 15th round keeper. If i give up Mixon, I think someone will draft him before me in the 2nd round. I’m leaning Drake because of the value, but also am really interested in Mixon this year.

Thanks


#2

Standard league, 10 teams, non-snake draft - 7th pick each round.


#3

Freeman, Lynch, KJ would be my order


#4

Royce Freeman over Lynch? Nah. A proven veteran should almost always be ahead of rookies, and with Gruden at the helm with his old-school approach, I think Lynch is less of a risk and will produce more for you. After that I’d say Kerryon then Royce, mostly because its a keeper league. Honestly its a toss up with those two. As for your other keeper - definitely go Mixon over Drake. Drake should be solid, but Mixon has less risk around him and doesn’t have Frank Gore threatening to vulture goal line touchdowns.


#5

Completely disagree. Especially since it’s a Keeper league. The argument (for The anyway) that vets are safer is tired and really holds no water whatsoever once you get out of the first round, and it’s somewhat debatable even in the first.

There is a long history of highly drafted rookie RBs producing at a high level for fantasy, and it’s become even more pronounced in recent years where the league has moved even farther towards drafting young backs as starters to have a cost controlled RB, as opposed to shelling out money for vets (aside from the few genuinely elite ones).

Once you get outside the top 15 or so backs, there is no such thing as a guarantee or safe player at RB. If this were a pure redraft league, I’d have Freeman and Lynch as a virtual tie, but the keeper element makes moves me solidly to the Freeman side, and would also probably less me to take KJ, if I had any confidence in him starting early in the season (unfortunately, I have no such confidence, though I think he definitely should). Freeman I expect to be the starter week 1. I know that Booker is the nominal starter today, but I think it’s more likely he’s cut than that he’s the starter week 1. Freeman is a night and day better player.