You may be right, but I feel that the gamble is relatively low risk. Tate had nearly 400 catches over the last 4 years, but he faded last year, getting dinged up in the process, finishing the season by busting in 4 of the final 7 games of the season. Meanwhile Jones trended the opposite direction during that same stretch of games, finishing with RB2 numbers or better 5 of those 7.
Am I reading into it too much? Probably, but Tate is 30 and no safe bet to be healthy and effective all year, and I’m not convinced Golladay steals too many targets. Even if Stafford only throws 570 times this year (would still be one of the fewest attempts totals of his career) I can see Jones commanding in the 20% range (130 targets would be 22%)
I still don’t think that’s an unreasonable ceiling - I still project him in the 105 target, 1,000 yard range, but wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the high end this year.