I’m taking the bait and targeting Marvin Jones as my WR2 in the 3rd-4th round turn in a 14 team PPR. I know he is a little bit of a one trick pony with the go routes on the outside but the Lions throw so much and he fits perfectly with Stafford.
Is Marvin Jones too boom-bust to rely on as a WR2???
I love Jones as a WR2 this year. Starting in week 6, he was fairly consistent as a fantasy producer. He had a handful of dud weeks (he had 3 PPR points in week 9, and 8 and 9 points in two road games in December) but otherwise had solid format-proof performances.
In Standard leagues, he’s even more valuable as his ceiling somewhere in the 1,200 yard 12 TD range.
Love Jones at a value.
I would highly recomend not targeting specific players. Prepare for a draft by mocking. Mock different strategies: zero-rb zero-wr, draft unlike yourself. That is much better preparation than targeting individual players.
I’m happily taking all of the MJ shares. Don’t think you need to draft him as early as the 3rd TBH especially with all this Kenny G hype which I am very thankful for as it depresses Marvin’s stock. His current ADP per FantasyPros is in the 60s, placing him in the late 5th/6th. He is going after Golden tate which is very puzzling to me. In the 3rd, I don’t think it’s much value but if you get him in the 5th, I’m jumping on that train all day. Choo choo.
I disagree that he is a one trick pony though. Although going deep is definitely one of his best assets, I think his contested catch ability is by far his most valuable trait. Makes him an absolute stud in the redzone on a team that doesn’t really have any other legitimate redzone threats. Clearly Stafford trusts him as well which is further testament to that ability as Stafford is consistently willing to throw jump balls into traffic in that part of the field.
He is also entering his prime as a WR (typicaly age of 27-30) so improving his route tree is definitely not out of the question. If they can start involving him in space as he eats a bit more into that golden tate role, I think he would be a great value in the 4th/5th round.
The man also has fewer miles on his wheels than other receivers that have been in the league as long. He was misused in Cincinnati (big shock there… way to go Marvin Lewis) and is really only now showing what he’s capable of. I think he’s got a VERY safe floor, but his ceiling is kind of an enigma… would anyone be surprised if he goes for 1600 and 12?
1600 yards is a bit of a stretch for me cause I don’t think he gets enough targets to reach that level. I mean there are very few receivers in the league that have that as a ceiling and its basically Brown, Hopkins, JJ, OBJ cause they don’t have someone like Tate sucking 100+ catches a season.
12 -14 TDs though? I think that is definitely in the realm of possibility.
I also wouldn’t say he has a very safe floor. At least not from game to game. He’s more boom bust play but if you’re adding him to your roster in the 5th, you presumably have a pretty solid floor from your other starters to be able to absorb that type of variance. And Very few players you get in that round has the week winning upside he can provide. I mean his single game upside is the 100 yards + 2 TDs type games.
He had fewer than 5 targets only three times last year and averaged nearly 8 targets a game following his 14 targets in week 6. I’m not saying that it’s a likely outcome, but when I project a players ceiling, I look at their catch rate and target share opportunity, and I see his ceiling as around 130 targets, 80 catches, 1400 yards and 12 TDs - of course that IS shy of the 1600 yards but not by much.
I try not to worry about a players floor when he has a bit of a track record - after all, everyone’s floor is “out for the year” so I want to maximize my winnings not minimize my losses.
Totally understand on projecting ceilings. But to me, 1400 and 1600 yards is a pretty big difference. There have only been a few in the history of the game who have been able to eclipse that mark. Only AB, Megatron, Flash, Moss, Marvin Harrison and JJ come to mind in terms of modern day receivers. To give you a sense for how difficult that is, AJ green, Larry Fitz, TO, all of whom I consider to be much more talented than Marvin could not achieve that. It’s rarified air and I don’t think Marvin could achieve it. I think the Golladay coming back will also eat into his targets a bit given he is similar style of player but totally inferior when it comes to contested catch ability. So I don’t see it as a huge problem, it is a factor that still needs to be accounted for as he saw his targets dip once Golladay did return last season.
And I’m with you 100% in chasing upside and maximize winnings but just don’t want people to get the misconception that Jones has a “VERY safe floor” as you have said as I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. Even though there were only 3 games he had 5 targets in 5 other games. So 8 games total where he had 5 targets or less. Also need to remember that his targets are often of higher difficulty so he comes down with them less, resulting a lower catch %. This translates into a much higher upside when he does hit given the high ADOT but when he misses, he usually busts pretty bad. I think there were about 5-6 games where he scored 6 points or less which in my eyes is a bust week. a 30-40% bust rate is not what you are looking for in a player with a very safe floor is all I’m saying. But as long as your team composition can handle that type of variance, then I am all far Marvin jones.
Both 130 targets and 1400 yards both seem extremely optimistic. I’d say that’s a good bit beyond his ceiling barring a lot of injuries (and even then, idk). I’m fine with him as an RB2, but this numbers just don’t seem realistic at all to me. His ceiling is as a TD maker.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on how safe he is at his current draft price; I wouldn’t suggest drafting him at his ceiling, but compared to the other receivers being drafted around him (Will Fuller, Chris Hogan, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery) I think he’s a pretty safe option in terms of floor.
Could he bust out? Sure, but I feel he’s less likely to bust than any other player I just listed.
All of those players are also very boom bust. None of these guys have a “VERY safe floor”.
That’s all I’m saying. Agree with you on everything else. I’d take him over all those dudes too 
I think it’s probably fair that I need to clarify a little better that his floor is only safe relative to the other receivers I have him tiered with. I have him at the tail end of my Tier 3 receivers, just outside of the “large range of outcomes” guys like Hogan and Fuller.
It’s gonna be a fun year this year - a lot of middle tiered guys that the community is split over.
You’ve lost me. I agree that he’s safe at his ADP, I was quibbling with your assessment of his target/yardage ceiling.
Mike was concerned I was overvaluing his safety so I was just clarifying that I was only comparing his floor with the other guys at that approximate draft area.
And maybe I’m guilty of hyperbole here… but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s about to have one of those aberrational Brandon-Lloyd-in-2010 type seasons. I guess if I’m wrong I’ll go down with the ship on this one since I’m going to own him in a lot of leagues this year lol.
You may be right, but I feel that the gamble is relatively low risk. Tate had nearly 400 catches over the last 4 years, but he faded last year, getting dinged up in the process, finishing the season by busting in 4 of the final 7 games of the season. Meanwhile Jones trended the opposite direction during that same stretch of games, finishing with RB2 numbers or better 5 of those 7.
Am I reading into it too much? Probably, but Tate is 30 and no safe bet to be healthy and effective all year, and I’m not convinced Golladay steals too many targets. Even if Stafford only throws 570 times this year (would still be one of the fewest attempts totals of his career) I can see Jones commanding in the 20% range (130 targets would be 22%)
I still don’t think that’s an unreasonable ceiling - I still project him in the 105 target, 1,000 yard range, but wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the high end this year.