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Melvin Gordon -v- Alvin Kamara


#1

Howdy!

Sometimes you are too close to see clearly. I have both M. Gordon and A. Kamara in essentially a dynasty league. 12 team, non-PPR scoring and line ups. I can only keep one player from a position, so one of these two gems has to go. I love the stability of Gordon and think he is cemented in his role. I love the upside and joy watching Kamara do his thing. Both players are on good offenses. Both have aging QBs. Both have solid WRs to keep the boxes lighter.

I feel Gordon is safe but with higher usage and a poorer line. I feel Kamara is a wildcard but low miles and in a committee (at least this year).

Both should be fine this year, but what about the next few years? I love both my boys :slight_smile:

If you only could keep one, which one and why?

FWIW, my keeper at WR is OBJ. Not sure if risk/reward factors in to how you all evaluate a roster, so I wanted to include his name as more information.


#2

That’s a tough one from a keeper standpoint. I know a lot of people will say Kamara but I agree with you that he’s more of a wild card than people think. For some reason I can’t shake the feeling he will regress big time this year, because his numbers were historically unsustainable and there isn’t the “out of nowhere” factor for teams planning against him. I think in a standard league go Gordon, cause they give him a lot of work no matter how efficient he is or isn’t, and most importantly; MANY cracks at the endzone. Kamara gets pulled a lot when they get down real close (although who knows what will happen without ingram). Id lean Gordon too.


#3

I have to agree with @robert_michael here and go with Gordon. It pains me to say it as a guy who rode Kamara to a redraft championship last year after scooping him of waivers for nothing the week before the points eruption! But as it’s non PPR plus Gordons guaranteed volume including goal line as you say I’d go with him.


#4

@robert_michael and @James89 dang it! I was hoping to hear Kamara in my only rosy glasses view.

I completely agree but the ‘fun to watch’ side of me wants to hold Kamara. But I see many potentials for him to disappoint. Granted, he did what he did without starting the season as a major role. Even with regression (which is likely coming) he might over come that with the increased time on the field. I do not think Ingram being gone really changes his role much. Gordon is not a ‘sexy’ choice, but it does feel like he is more ‘known’ and that matters. If his o-line is better (supposedly) that can only help. It is hard to argue with workloads like his.

Is there any reason to not give Kamara a nudge since he is newer to the league and less miles? Since this is essentially a dynasty player, do years down the road make much a difference in the choice between either player? That is the piece I cannot quite figure out. This year I think they will be close so I am not worried about 2018.

But maybe I am just trying to talk myself into Kamara :wink:


#5

@octoberland I mean based on what we saw last year, I’d be a fool to sit here and try and talk you out of Kamara lol. It’s a tough call because Kamara was so great last season so to assume he’d flop or regress badly is just speculation. I just think the Chargers seem pretty locked on to Gordon and I think that’ll remain the case for the next 2-3 years, and Kamara could easily be just as incredible for the same period of time but there’s also some risk there with the way he gets points (extreme efficiency), and the uncertainty of what will happen with Ingram (contract year). I don’t think anyone would blame ya for taking Kamara, I just see Gordon as the “safer” choice, even if you risk losing some points if Kamara really is Jamaal Charles 2.0 lol. If you want Kamara, take him bro… they’re close enough that if you wanna watch the Toledo kid wiggle on Sundays… don’t look back. Heart wants what it wants.


#6

heh.

I do have a hard time taking the ‘smart’ (admittedly subjective) pick over the ‘heart’ choice :wink:

I do quite like both, but I am leaning towards Gordon and maybe trading Kamara for different draft position. Frankly I could do the reverse as well. I am just wanting to be convinced Kamara is the slam dunk because FUN!

I do wonder about him moving forward (Kamara). I am wondering if he works well with the tandem and not as well individually. I supposed we will see this season while Ingram is out 4 games. Kamara’s stats are crazy, no doubt. I know they will correct some. Regardless of that, I am not sure I see him as a bell cow player. If he really is the next J Charles, then that would be awesome. But I know that for now Gordon is a bell cow. That is my hurdle!

Thank you for the thoughts and time!


#7

Alvin Kamara all the way. Mark Ingram has been suspended for 4 games, and might be on the outs with the Saints when he comes back. So for those 4 games, and probably after that, Kamara will be a workhorse in New Orleans. Last year’s committee is not such a concern.

I like Melvin Gordon’s volume, and since this is a standard scoring league I’m a little more tempted by him. Still, Kamara has ridiculous upside. If he’s catching the ball a lot, he’ll get more yards per touch.


#8

Mark Ingram has been suspended for 4 games for a PED violation. Kamara will get all the volume he wants.


#9

Man tough choice for sure. I’ve personally never been a fan of Gordon from a talent perspective but for Fantasy as we all know, volume is king and for some reason, chargers just trust him no matter what. His nagging foot injuries do give me some pause for concern though and the tread on his tires.

I agree Kamara is more of a wildcard but given how Payton runs the offense, he uses RBs from a pass on 1st/2nd down perspective rather than most guys who are just prehistoric and only look to pass on 3rd downs. Kamara will likely regress in terms of efficiency, but I think that it will be made up for in more volume. If you look at nearing end of last year, he was already trending up while ingram was trending down for usage. Also, given the way they use Ingram as a bruiser and bring Kamara in once defences are worn down, I think the carries he does get actually result in less wearing on his tires so to speak. The talent there is undeniable and I actually think Brees will be around for a couple more years and still be at an elite level.

Personally, I’d take Kamara but it’s a close choice either way.


#10

In a keeper situation you almost need to know who’s out of the pool. If you throw one back will they be the 1.01?

I have Kamara for peanuts in my family league but also have Howard. I’m going to keep Kamara unless someone wants to overpay, we can trade keepers predraft. I love having him but his ADP is so full of risks, if someone else will step in it then let them and take the value they missed.

Curious about where you pick and who you expect to see available?


#11

I have heard all that and not sure I buy it. I have a hard time doing them just give everything to Kamara. He will likely see more work over the season since he did not have the job starting out in 2017. That should help offset any dips in efficiency. But I cannot see them giving him the rock for all the carries. They have even said as much.

But I do think that there had been history of Peyton smashing Ingram for petty things. I do not know why that is, but I can see that play out given the PED news.

For me I am wondering if it is better to keep the younger and admittedly more fun / explosive player in a time share verses a less impressive statistically speaking bell cow player. Especially when both should be on high volume offenses with QBs in similar futures due to age.

I see this as safety versus upside as opposed to a massive talent gap. Since it is essentially a dynasty league, it does tip a bit toward Kamara.

Thank you for your thoughts and suggestions :blush:


#12

I have pick 9 I think. Maybe 10. They have not posted. I know from my team alone these players will be back in the pool : Gordon/Kamara, D. Cook, Gronk and Diggs. All those are good choices in essentially the 3rd round.

My roster was amazing last year and then injury derailed me. I had highest points for AND against…go figure. So I am bummed that it did not work out. My league is pretty sharp so I do not expect any of those except maybe Gronk to make it back and I do not want him.

I have not looked to see who might be dropped from other teams as I am often surprised who gets kept. These guys are high in QB, so I suppose my Wilson might also go early?

I, too, can trade players for draft spots. I might see if I can get a better spot for one of them, but the incentive is low since they know I cannot keep them all anyway :confused:

The WR I am keeping is OBJ…another reason my season did not pan out.


#13

I am leaning more like you laid out. It is rough giving up a player they feed as much as he can eat though. I am with you on Kamara for this season potential outcome and usage. But Peyton can get petty.

If this were PPR it would be easier I think.

Thank you for your breakdown of logic and your thoughts. I appreciate the time :blush:


#14

No one can fault you either way. Hope you have better luck this year bro. I know how it feels to have highest PF and still lose out. Injuries do suck as well. I lost Cook/Carson in the same week, then lost Watson.

I don’t think anyone expects Kamara to become the lead back and a bell cow, nor do I think you want that. He needs to stay fresh and you want someone like ingram taking the early punishment. He is all about high efficiency carries. But even if it leans towards a 55/45 or 60/40 workload which is entirely possible given trending nearing end of last year, in his favor, I think that will be more than enough to make up for the drop in his unattainable efficiency/touch from last season. He would basically become a much more pass happy / efficient freeman.

Also don’t forget the saints run a decent amount of 2 back sets where both Kamara and Ingram are on the field which also helps.

Glad I could help and good luck to you!


#15

Yeah in a PPR Kamara is easy. You can keep a guy indefinitely? If that’s the case, Gordon is nearing the end of his rookie deal. That said I would be looking at Kamara or Cook not Gordon. Timeline for a decision? Can you wait until you see Cook taking snaps? Project him out to a full season and he’s a steal, then again he may be on the board at 9 or 10.

See if you can get a 2nd first for Kamara and then keep Dalvin.


#16

Definitely a help! I think that some folks are expecting AK to get all the everything while Ingram is out. I sure hope not!

I also had Carson (drafted not waiver). It was a rough roster year for me. I suppose that is FF though. I am definitely not the first or only person to have had that play out. Side note on Carson, I think he will be much more involved that folks are talking. I like him tonnes in the later rounds.


#17

Yes, we can keep someone forever. Two players, actually. The challenge is they have to be at different positions. So I could not keep Cook and Kamara for example.

I wondered about Cook but hope he might slip to me. We draft pretty late in this league, I think it is a week or two (tops) before the regular season opener. Gives everyone time to see where people are, but also removes rewards for players active in the off-season. The league is generally good players and not scrubs so I do not complain much.

I am hoping to get into the top 4 draft positions and then I can re-acquire someone I had to drop. Since our first round is more of a 3rd round (after 2 keepers) that early spot is still important as you can grab serious value if things break your way.


#18

Yeah I drafted carson in both of my leagues last year in the late round. Was so clear he was the best back when watching pre season games. Don’t even know why they bothered wasting time with Fat Lacy and Rawls.

I hope you’re right but it’s hard to have a positive look on Carson barring injury to Penny. They invested 1st round draft capital and Penny does have the skill set to be a 3 down back (sans pass pro, but Wilson makes up for that). Carson was my guy and I was rooting for him so I hope I am wrong.


#19

Kamara barely played the first 4 games. He is now the starter and Ingram is out those first 4 games. I get that Kamara likely won’t do what he did last year but, he will be getting almost an additional 4 games to get those numbers and likely a few more touches per game with Ingram out early.


#20

Carson was absolutely a ‘my guy’ and that could be why I am still on him. But I do not put too much weight into anything at this point and Petey Sunshine only has starmakers on his squad. Remember last year how everyone was the guy until they were not, and Carson was there still being awesome. Penny looks good, but I personally think folks get too star-eyed on rookies. Never taken a NFL snap and (frankly) not in the toughest of divisions in college. Not saying Penny is bad by any means, but there are massive steps from college stud to NFL stud. I personally see too many flags in Penny to just hand him the role. Will they correct, possibly. But that is not definitely. Carson was awesome and had he not broken a bone, there would not be Penny in the discussion. Now Carson is kicked to the curb as far as every analyst is concerned? Seems odd to me. But again, I am a Carson truther :wink:

I was actually interested in Penny to maybe lock up that backfield. But not sure how positive that backfield will prove this season.