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Michel is extremely overrated right now


#1

I traded for White just before the Burkhead news and when it broke that Burkhead was going to the IR my first reaction was James White is a league winner. I was shocked to see so many people fawning over Michel and not mentioning White at all… I’d much rather have White in any kind of PPR format and it isn’t even remotely close (it’s 2018, stop playing standard)…

  • White will get the goal line carries in any type of meaningful situation.
  • Michel will straight up split carries with White if the Pats aren’t absolutely dominating.
  • Michel isn’t a good pass catcher and was entirely phased out of the passing game this past week after several brutal drops in his first few games. Meaning White will absorb most if not all of the RB targets FROM TOM BRADY.
  • Brady has been openly complaining to the media (and I’m assuming the coaches as well) about the lack of snaps for White for the previous 2 weeks and gushing over how valuable White is to the offense, especially in the redzone.

I’m not saying Michel won’t develop into a better all around back over time or that he has no fantasy value… I’d probably prefer Michel over Collins right now… and as a Pats fan I’m extremely optimistic about Michel’s future with the team… But for the time being, as long as James White is healthy and active, Michel’s fantasy upside is capped at being Marshawn Lynch Lite with half the TD upside.

Change my mind.


#2

You’re wrong… There I changed your mind :rofl::rofl::rofl:


#3

People are fawning over Michel because we all know what White is. We’ve seen it.
Yes Burkhead going down means more space for White to be productive but Michel getting opportunity is exciting too. He’s a rookie and we all love seeing rookies get love in the NFL.


#4

Most of what you say is on point, White’s value has had a lot to do with what the WR core has been to this point. My argument for Michel would be that this team has to transition from leaning on Brady at 41, and to a more running game going in to the future. I believe NE is going to see what Michel can do this season as it progresses. Edelman will dip in to White’s catches. Gronk hasn’t been receiving his normal catches yet and IF Gorden is anything, all those chip in to Whites catches. I think White is a solid PPR RB, but if NE O does indeed stabilize and perform, I think Sony has the only legit role where as White is lack of WR performance dependent. No Edelman last year helped boost White’s catches.


#5

What I’m saying is… anybody I’ve seen even mention White is basically saying Michel wins your league and White gets a small bump, still just a flex option. Which is just laughable.


#6

Everyone looking for the next Kamara boost that he gave last year. Which I don’t see out there for this year. I think Sony can be a solid RB2 in PPR if he continues to see 20+ touches. I worry White’s value dips with a healthy targets to Gronk, Gordon, Eldeman.


#7

White has essentially filled Edelman’s spot for over a year… that’s my only issue with White. How does that play out now that he’s back?


#8

Fumble prone rookie with 0 receiving upside… There is a chance that what you’re saying is true and White loses receiving work… but in that case Michel is still not going to catch passes or ever get meaningful goal line carries… I believe the pats were up 4 scores before he got his first goal line carry unless I missed a failed attempt early… There is an actual 0% chance Michel is more than Lynch with a healthy James White lol… calling him a “league winner” is absurd.


#9

I don’t disagree, however you’re assumption is based on a rookie not improving. NE O has enough talent to push Michel into a solid RB2. League winner is probably more to do with what he could do versus what you paid to have him.


#10

I think Most weeks Michel will be fine (assuming the Pats D keeps their shit together)… but his floor is still literally non-existent in shoot-outs… like an 8/20/0 stat line with 0 targets is still on the table for him in any given week. Even in the worst of game scripts for White (this past week), he will still have a safe floor of 5-10 carries and a handful of targets/receptions… (4 carries for 12 yards with 4 rec for 30 yards is a better day than 20 carries for 80 yards in PPR lol). But White still has enough explosiveness to turn those touches into a huge day. My optimism on White may be overreaching… and Michel may get increasing goal line work (assuming he doesn’t fumble again rest of season)… but there won’t be a point this season where he is worth even as much as Blount was in 2016.

Also, I don’t like calling guys “League Winners” just because they outperformed their 6th/7th round ADP lol… Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara last year… guys who went in rounds 13+ or even undrafted who finished as top 5ish options… those are league winners… I’ve never heard someone say “man I’m sure glad I had a decent RB2… that’s the reason I won the league.”


#11

I don’t disagree with any of your points, the only thing I look at is volume and what it could be. Michel struggled in passes because NE O is all about YAC in the short passing game. Michel looked like he was going to spots to sit for a catch versus catching in stride to maximize YAC. That could be because he’s not good there, or it could be because of his lack of reps in preseason and something he’ll have to grow in to. I’d prefer to see what he does over the next few weeks before indicating this is what he is as a rook. Same thing for White with a full stable of WRs now. NE will be able to not just lean on White in the passing game now. If Sony improves in to the NE passing scheme style of YAC, that could be a game changer going forward. Just way to early to say League Winner or Lynch lite.


#12

For me, in a 16 team league that had a late draft pick and no shot at the upper tier backs, Michel could be a league winner if he becomes a solid RB2. Smaller leagues I don’t think he will be but larger leagues he could.


#13

Michel 2015 22 catches, 2016 26 catches. He can do it. Plus he had 2 goal line carries at the start of the game but couldnt convert. With edelman and gordon in the mix, I think white will have less opportunities. A better pass offense means less defenders in the box for Michel.


#14

I mean you’re saying we dont have a large enough sample size yet I’m basing my take on the fact that Michel has always had fumble issues and never been used as pass catching back all through college… and so far he’s been horrendous at catching passes… and with a coach like Belichick… he’s 1 fumble away from irrelevance… and for a guy who historically has fumbled once every 55 touches (an absurdly high fumble rate for the record), I don’t like those odds.

I give you that White hasn’t had to deal with a full complement of WRs (even tho Edelman won’t garner that many more targets than Amendola did last season)… but we also haven’t seen White without multiple other pass catching backs either… Dion Lewis and Burkhead have both limited Whites value… yet he was a viable Flex play in those days… now he’s a “even more viable Flex play” lol. If I had to choose James white with 15 total touches or Sony Michel with 25 carries… I’d take White every day of the week.


#15

Because Cooks, Amendola, Lewis, and Burkhead didn’t garner any targets last year… yeah I forgot about that :upside_down_face:


#16

Again it’s just that old argument in fantasy floor vs ceiling. Sony was drafted in RD1 for a reason. So obviously Bill wasn’t too worried about the make up, fumbles, and whatnot to not draft him. Nor has he been afraid to use him. I think the next 2 weeks will be telling for both players. If I needed the safe floor, I’d want White, if my team needed the ceiling I’d want Sony. One could argue White’s rushing stats have been inflated to trash time in Det and a blow out vs Miami as well. I think games vs Indy and KC will shed a lot more light on this situation as they will more than likely be scoring affairs and highlight their usages more clearly with a full stable on O.


#17

Realistically we can argue about “what could be” all day. Alex Collins could be a top 5 back if he stopped fumbling, got more targets, and his coach started using him in situation that the coach historically isn’t likely to use him in. My ultimate point is that you could probably trade Michel for like White plus a solid WR in a PPR league and I would do that without even thinking about it.


#18

I agree. A solid sell high guy in Sony. But I also believe he could improve as the season goes on a be better than anticipated.


#19

Im looking at KC as the day as well… idt Indy will tell us much as it’ll more than likely be another 40 point blowout (if TY sits) where Michel gets 25 carries lol… However, if Michel gets his 25 carries and White is still getting 15+ touches then I still feel good about him. KC will be a great game and I can see NE trailing a lot in that game… if Michel stays on the field in those situations and gets 5+ targets then I’ll certainly reevaluate my stance lol.


#20

I honestly believe the Sony draft pick was a pick with the idea Brady is 41 and we can’t always lean on his arm. I believe Sony will be forced to get acclimated to this YAC short passing game and start to get token targets. Last thing NE wants is a back that a D can focus on as 1 trick pony. That’s why if he’s going to be a part of this O I believe Bill is going to force him to be part of the passing game to keep Ds honest. I think to believe Bill won’t make him in to that type of player is to believe he’s had a shift in philosophy on RB, that they can do all things the O needs, and I don’t think that has happened.