Mike Davis Value

Any thoughts on Mike Davis in Chicago? Is he really a better version of Howard?

I don’t understand the hate towards Howard. I understand the fall off last year with the coach change. But, his rookie year he was 1200yrds i believe. Then in 2017, it was more of a roller coast with ups and downs. But still had multple 100+ yrds with mutlipe 2 TD games. I might be the only one that believes in Howard. But anyways Mike Davis Value?

I think Davis could have RB2 value if they don’t draft anyone else.
Positives: he should get 15+ touches a game. He can catch the ball (PPR). Good enough OL and a team that relies on defense and running/ball control.
Negatives: Average offense means limited touchdown opportunity. Cohen was a beast in the redzone last year because of Naggy’s love of the wheel route inside the 20; so, again, limited TD upside. Davis has never been a bellcow so there is a lot of unknown without much salary commitment or draft pedigree.

If they don’t draft anyone else and give a 60/40 split to Davis/Cohen, I think Davis could be an RB2 (think McCoy-ish last year). But, I fully expect them to bring someone else in and/or draft a 2nd or 3rd round rookie to split time with Davis while Cohen still has his role. My prediction is the backfield will be much like NE before Michel: Cohen (aka James White) has his role no matter what and is a good player to own in PPR leagues; meanwhile Davis and others will be a revolving door which will be hard to predict week to week.

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Thanks man! Great points!

I agree with most of that, except that they do not have a 2nd round. Their first pick AFAIK is in the 3rd, and it is doubtful their biggest need is another RB. IMHO, moving out of Howard shows the opinion on Davis. I believe they brought him on before letting Howard go. I take that as they grabbed the guy they liked, and then let go Howard. Could they draft someone? Of course. It does not seem overly likely to me that Davis will have much competition for the spot.

The rest of the situation depends on how you value the remaining points brought up, which I think are all very valid. I see him as an RB2 this season, but can see that slide around a bit. Fortunately he is the style of RB that fits their previous game style. If that continues he should be relatively safe.

Just my two cents, but I hope it helps!

For transparency, I do not own Mike Davis currently. I have picked him up off waivers in years past. Ultimately cut him… just like the 49ers and Seahawks.

I think Davis is being payed backup money. Without injury, he will not produce an RB2 year.

I do think the Bears will draft an RB with their 3rd (3.23 - 87 overall). Here are some mocks where they picked an RB. There are others where a TE or other players are selected. I included just to show that there is a non-zero percentage.
https://walterfootball.com/mocks/nflteamreport/Chicago-Bears
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/chicago-bears-7-round-mock-draft

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I can see that point. If they do not go RB in the 3rd I still see the path to RB2. Might be low end, but I think he can do what Howard had provided, but he is a legit pass catcher which might be the difference maker in production. For me, though, the biggest thing is he is a very low cost get at the moment. IF it is wrong, you are not building a team around him. If you are right, you might get a nice weekly RB2 play.

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Agree that he is and should be cheap and obviously there is opportunity should the Bears not draft an RB in the 3rd.

One further comment about his pass catching - tThe stats don’t necessarily back up “legit pass catcher”. What makes you say that? His 2018 production?

College:
image
NFL:

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Partially last year, but the stats show that he has gotten better with years of play. A tiny 2% dip in 2018 admittedly, but the volume was far higher. I think it is more that he is given the opportunity that he did not have in the past. In SF and SEA he was never ‘the guy’ being in massive time shares and behind other ‘starters.’ I think that he has shown when given the chance, he has stepped up. Frankly, his last 2 college years were not bad either. I am not sure how pass heavy S. Carolina is to their running backs, but 34 & 32 are not bad for college performances.

I suppose that if you compare him to full time RBs (which he has not yet been) then he does not look as impressive, but even Gordon and David Johnson only had 50 catches despite their backfield dominance. Even Mixon clocked in at 43. Those guys people think of as strong pass catchers. I think Davis hauling in 34 passes on limited role compared to guys people think are legit pass catchers is on par. The bigger thing is that Howard only caught 20 and his biggest knock was no pass catching.

I think it makes for a compelling case that Davis can be a pass catching back, and provide something to CHI where as before they had to put Cohen on the field. Now, they might not have to telegraph as much to opposing teams. In the end, to me being a legit pass catcher just means he can, not that he is McCaffery or something. It just means that if you throw him the ball he will likely catch it.

Does that make sense?

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Yep. Thanks for sharing!!

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Timely…

image

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Regardless of Davis, I think Cohen will be a STEAL again in any PPR league

Not sure what his true value will be until after the draft. I don’t fully trust that they will hand him the keys. I could see them drafting someone in the first couple of rounds.

Definitely got interesting in CHI. I still lean Davis in the situation (I just think he is under rated) but he might be more of a redraft candidate than dynasty.

Can you expand that thought? You lean Davis how?

The most fantasy points at the end of the year?
The team defined RB1?
The most snaps?
The highest drafts?

Thanks!

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I am leaning Davis for this year but not a wide margin. How I view things, he is markedly better than many people think and he has time in the league. While some do not think / care / worry about that, I personally always give more weight to people with time in the NFL when comparing players without. There are many folks who look great in college but do not translate, or take a bit longer. I prefer taking the known commodity with NFL experience.

I think Montgomery and Davis are actually pretty similar as talents. But I do think Montgomery over time is likely the better if only slightly. So for this year, I think Davis will probably have a better year (redraft), but long term (dynasty) I would be taking Montgomery. Though admittedly it might not be a landslide and the balance for both will possibly be shifting from start to end of season.

To your questions:
Slightly more points
Starting as Team RB1
Slightly more snaps by end of the year
Lower in drafts, especially Dynasty

Mainly, I was only putting it out there as an update. I did not think they were going to go RB, and especially that early given their picks were slim. With redraft, I would take the value on Davis but with dynasty I would go Montgomery. It was not clear what format for the initial question, so I was trying to answer a bit better after the draft.

As always, these are just my thoughts and I know many folks have other views. Just figured I should give my thoughts to the question and, at the least, give something to think about :slight_smile:

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