I was fully on the Gordon side of this argument but the forum member Guinness really talked up Murray to me… he’s not the first person to do so either so I’m really torn on which of these guys to go with. I’m pick 9 in a 10 team and I see more than a 99% chance I’ll have both of these guys to choose from… I’d just like to get an idea of how more people feel about this since the experts are almost unanimously in favor of Gordon, though the 2 are usually ranked back to back (not that rankings mean anything)…
Go Murray. He’s the veteran back who’s productive for his team, only way Henry takes over is an injury.
Gordon on the other hand had volume but was highly inefficient and to draft him that high is banking on a repeat touchdown performance. It’s highly unlikely. And all of the coaches are very high on Branden Oliver. This may be a committee by September.
I like Murray as well. Much of Gordon’s production last year was simply due to volume, not a good YPC. I believe it was 3.8 or around so last year. Murray on the other hand is a better pass catcher on what I believe to be a more explosive offense; the only problem I see with Murray is the shadow of Derrick Henry looming behind him, and I fear Henry might see more touches this year as he was extremely efficient last year when he was on the field.
I like both… but Murray is the higher risk. Don’t want risk in the 1st rd. I really think Gordon makes a big jump this year in efficiency. Better line, and healthy receiving core should really help him. Their line was TERRIBLE last year. Not predicting it, but I could see Murray split a little more with Henry. Could see the titans wanting to keep him fresh.
Yeah there’s a reason all of the experts are on Gordon over Murray. Murray comes with boatloads of risk: he has a talented incumbent behind him that may challenge for more touches, he has a ton of touches on his resume and is at an increased chance to suffer an injury, and the Titans loaded up on passing options and may be less run heavy this year.
On the other hand, the chargers strengthened their line and Oliver is not likely to cut into Gordon’s workload in any significant way.
I would take Gordon over Murray. But ultimately, if you really like Murray there’s a good chance you can scoop him up in the second round.
I’d be interested in hearing you elaborate on this. Murray being a higher risk? When’s the last time Gordon played a full season? New head coach Anthony Lynn has a history of using a tandem of RBs. Quoting Lynn from March, “We’re looking for a guy who can be a tandem back with Melvin. I like to run the football multiple ways and it’s going to take more than one runner.”
Murray will hold of Henry as long as he remains healthy. Murray has missed one game in the past 3 seasons. Head coach Mike Mularkey when asked about Murray’s workload said, “He’ll have enough to keep his hands full. I promise.”
And the site you’re posting on, 2 of the 3 ballers have Murray ranked over Gordon.
Oliver is a decent compliment, but Gordon is a clear workhorse back. So is Murray, but Henry is a far superior talent to Oliver. The injury risk isn’t a factor to me for either player… it’s just the small possibility that Henry takes a bigger role than everyone is projecting. Like I said, they’re very close, but I think Gordon is less of a risk to lose touches… regardless of coach speak. Their line should be drastically better, so I’d be shocked if his ypc didn’t improve quite a bit too.
2 out of 3 doesn’t sound like a consensus. On fantastypros, out of about 100 experts 89% are choosing Gordon. That is pretty resounding.
But that’s my first sentence. Have anything to say about the rest of my post?
Gordon. Higher upside.
I hear ya, if I was on the clock between the two of them I’d have to go with Murray’s consistency over Gordon’s potential.
Well I disagree with Murray being an increased chance of injury. Melvin has never played a full season, Murray’s missed one game in the past 3 seasons. I’m not scared of Henry. I see Murray/Henry akin to Freeman/Coleman. Henry has standalone value and you can get him in the 8/9th round as your flex/handcuff. It’s just for me, when I think of risk I look at consistency. Favoring Gordon you’re looking for improvement and drafting him at his ceiling. I think we can all agree his TD total will regress so you’re banking on him doing something he’s never done before, over 4 ypc, to justify a 1st round pick. I’ll pass every day.
If I’m picking between the 2 I take Murray. Every week last season I argued my case that Gordon was overrated and touchdown dependent and it seemed like every week he would get 60 yards and 2 lucky touchdowns and I’d have to eat my words.
The luck will have to run out at some point. Especially with more offensive weapons this year to utilize in the red zone.
Or maybe I’ll just continue to eat my words for another season, but I trust Murray more.
I hear ya there lol… I talked so much shit on Gordon every week last year and I had to eat my words every time. On the flipside of all this though… I had the rest of my league hating Gordon for most of the season as well. Even the guy who owned him was trying to get rid of him lol. I’m in a 10 team league and if I’m getting Murray at pick 9, it’s a possibility some of that same mindset is still around and I can grab Gordon at pick 12… I think I’d feel pretty good about that… Starting off the draft with Murray/Gordon then just building some sexy WR depth somewhere in rounds 3-8.
I think Murray is the safer lower upside guy honestly lol. I did read somewhere (can’t verify the source) that Gordon actually averaged something like 4.5ypc between the 20’s… and his total YPC of 3.9 was misleading due to the sheer number of carries inside the 10 (where he averaged something like 1.2ypc) that he got last year. I fully expect Gordon’s efficiency to take a nice step forward this year because he won’t be the team’s only option. I do expect his TD total to take a dip for that same reason though… all that being said if he has even slightly better efficiency with the 50+ catches he should have and still somehow manage to average 1 TD per game… then he has the potential to finish as the top overall RB. Murray on the other hand should see a smaller workload this year than last… I don’t expect him to lose TDs to Henry but he will lose more carries… and every move the team made in the offseason seemed focused on building the passing attack… I think that Murray finishes somewhere like RB5-7 no matter what (barring injury) but I can’t picture him finishing anywhere in the top 3 unless 2-3 guys go down early in the season. So really it all comes down to do I want the risky volatile young guy who has yet to finish a full season but has the potential to have a David-Johnson-like finish or do I want the guy I know should be a mid tier RB1 who does it year after year. And here’s something to think about… every team that had a Bell, Johnson, Shady, or Zeke made it to playoffs in my leagues last year. In my main league the guy who had Murray and Brown didn’t make it. His safe players didn’t have enough big games down the stretch and he got edged out despite starting the season 4-0 lol. That’s my problem with going the safe route and taking Murray. Doesn’t matter how well you play… if some random idiot gets lucky on a stupid pick like last year and takes unproven David Johnson in the first and suspended Le’veon Bell in the 2nd they automatically win the league.
Well said, I agree with everything. A rb 5-10 finish for a 2nd round pick compared to a rb 1-15 finish for a 1st round pick, take 'em both! Lol
Hey I got a shout out!
The reality of these two players as I see it is this. End of season, if both of these players hit their ceiling they will finish reasonably close to each other. The people that think Gordon has top 5 upside aren’t watching the film and comparing the numbers. In the end zone, the chargers are the most stacked team in the NFL, period. Maybe Gordon gets those touches, but maybe not. He isn’t even the most efficient red zone back on that team. I will be trending Gordon’s between the 20’s runs today because I am really curious there.
The floor for both of these guys is what makes the difference for me. Murray can lose carries to Henry, but in a 60/40 split he will still be getting like 250 touches. If Gordon loses end zone touches his floor drops significantly. We only have 1 good year from Gordon where Murray has been doing it for years.
As far as analysts taking Gordon higher, look back at the accuracy of analysts especially through FantasyPros. I used to write for those guys, and they are influenced by recency biased.
EDIT: I just finished trending those runs between the 20s, and he did get about 4.4 YPC (4.369). However, if we do the same thing to Murray, Gordon is still not as good.
i want gordon over murray right now. you know what gordons biggest set back is for most people? oh man, the guy gets a lot of carries, but only averages 3.8 or lower a carry. you know what has changed this year for the chargers? everything. everything that was holding him back as a guy that can actually get consistent YPC. upgraded O line, check. other weapons on the field to take all the heat off of him. check. experience with his team. check.
gordon was on pace for 1300 yards, 13 TDs, with 55 receptions, for 550 yards, and 3ish TDs. thats a damn good year. it is better than every single year murray has had, except for the magical one in dallas. murray on the other hand has quite a few question marks. will e get all of the carries, is he going to slow down in his age, will the increased throwing power actually help him since he does have youth behind him ready to go. so im taking gordon on the upswing, instead of murray on the downswing. dont get me wrong though… if im at the 12 spot and they are both there, im taking both of them.
oh, and for the redzone thing, i wouldnt worry too much about it. he could easily lose 3 TDs, but with what he was stating out for the season, that still puts him at 10 TDs for the year. thats pretty damn good. plus mike williams is going to be out for a lot of, if not all of the year. im betting gordon stays right on track, if not getting even more stats.
My main issue with Gordon is what he does when he touches the ball. I continued the 20 to 20 analysis on some other players and found everyone gets a solid bump from that. I am also not saying either of these players are bad choices, I am saying I don’t like Gordon’s ADP.
I don’t see any question marks at all for Murray, he will get solid usage regardless of Henry. That is a run first offense and won’t change.
I see much more question marks with Gordon, like you said everything has changed for the Chargers. Even with Williams out, they have a ridiculously deep WR core. I would argue they have the best TE combo in the league. Personally I think they change schemes to a passing offense. I think Rivers throws 600 times this season. That can actually help Gordon’s yards. He is really good catching the ball. The flip side is the end zone usage. I don’t think he drops by 3, I think he falls outside of double digits.
I’m really curious about the between the 20’s ypc as well… I always throw in that little caveat of “I only read this I didn’t run the numbers myself.” lol… but a number I can confirm is the fppg difference between the two with expecting TD regression from Gordon. Based on half PPR… Last year Murray averaged 16.7 ppg and Gordon averaged 18.9 (not counting his last game or the 3 carries he had in it)… I think it’s safe to say last year is pretty much Murray’s ceiling for this year… he’s a year older with Henry bound to take at least a few touches and the team bound to pass at least a little more… With Gordon I expect less touches, particularly in the RZ, which will hurt his TD upside but certainly help his efficiency… regardless of the exact numbers between the 20s, it’s safe to say every RB in the league performs better when not faced with a goal line defense. I also don’t see his receptions changing much in either direction. So, for arguments sake, lets say he averages the same yardage totals and receptions per game this year but loses 50% of his TDs… he still averages 15.9 ppg… I’d say that’s a fair prediction and not too much above his floor… and it’s not even an entire point less than what many can agree is Murray’s ceiling this year. Now I’m not a Melvin Gordon truther or anything like that… and we all expect TD regression… But you have to admit top 5 potential is there… I’ll admit a lot has to break right for him… he has to become more efficient (which I fully expect) while also retaining a large enough workload to maintain last year’s yardage totals (not toooo much of a stretch imo), and he has to maintain a respectable TD total which could be rough with how well balanced that offense will be this year. I see your point though… you’re drafting RB5 potential as the RB5 or 6… And you aren’t getting value at that point. Personally I have decided to go with Murray round 1 as the safe bet and then in the 2nd (depending on the guy behind me) I can either take a shot on Gordon, or a guy like Howard or maybe even Freeman though I don’t expect him to still be there… worst case scenario I’ll have Murray and an elite WR… it’s a win win no matter what if I start with Murray.