My dynasty rookie draft starts tomorrow! Help!

Dynasty Rookie Draft starts tomorrow. I am pick 11. PPR. Here is who I have in my top 11 right now. Any thoughts are appreciated.

|2|Sanders, Miles|PHI|RB|
|3|Harry, N’Keal|NEP|WR|
|4|Montgomery, David|CHI|RB|
|5|Campbell, Parris|IND|WR|
|6|Brown, Marquise|BAL|WR|
|7|Hardman, Mecole|KCC|WR
|8|Metcalf, DK|SEA|WR|
|9|Hill, Justice|BAL|RB|
|10|Samuel, Deebo|SFO|WR|
|11|Singletary, Devin|BUF|RB|
|12|Johnson, Diontae|PIT|WR|
|13|Isabella, Andy|ARI|WR|
|14|Arcega-Whiteside, JJ|PHI|WR|
|15|Henderson, Darrell|LAR|RB|
|16|Snell, Benny|PIT|RB|
|17|Butler, Hakeem|WR

For reference, here is my roster

QB- Big Ben, Jameis Winston, Josh Rosen
RB- Derrick Henry, Derrius Guice, Marlon Mack, Kareem Hunt (yikes), Duke Johnson
WR- DeAnde Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin (yikes)
TE- OJ Howard, Dallas Goedart

Couple quick comments:

  • I personally would have N’Keal Harry first overall.
  • AJ Brown should be in the top 12.
  • Justice Hill is not in my current top 12.

Still working on digesting rookie landing spots.

I just don’t trust that Titans passing game.
Justice Hill in that heavy run scheme of the Ravens could be really good for fantasy. He compliments Ingram similarly to Kamara (not saying he is Kamara but a similar role)

In a dynasty rookie draft I would not bury A.J. Brown due to landing spot. Maybe he’s not top 4 but I would say back end of first. Maybe beginning of second.

Sure if Justice Hill floats to the top…but the Ravens have a million RBs.
(Source = Ourlads)

Don’t mean to neg your list. Just wanted to throw out some other ideas. I agree with your placement of Deebo!

I like what both of you are saying and agree that Brown has obstacles but should be in the top 12. I keep seeing Miles Sanders high on rookie rankings, am I crazy or should he be back end of the 1st/early 2nd? Philly hasn’t produced a usable fantasy RB in years, they have Howard who demands volume, and Sanders only has 1 year (yes very good) of college production because of Barkley. I have Sanders as my #4 RB behind Jacobs, Montgomery, and Singletary. I think Sanders and Hill have very similar obstacles but I have Sanders higher because he’s the better talent and higher draft stock.

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That makes sense for Hill. I guess I view Ingram as the replacement for Edwards and Hill will easily take over Dixon as the pass catcher change of pace back. But I might be wrong.

Seeing how irrelevant Mariota and the Titans have made Corey Davis, I just struggle to get behind drafting AJ in the first. I like the player but the situation isn’t ideal

As far as Sanders, I am an Eagles fan so my analysis of the situation is I don’t think the Eagles have gone RBBC so heavy by choice. I think Sanders has that 3 down ability they covet and the Eagles haven’t spent this much draft capital on an RB since McCoy. Howard is on a 1 year deal and likely won’t be resigned. I think he and Sanders split year 1 and Sanders can be the featured back by 2020.

I agree I think Philly has been RBBC by necessity; however, its one of those scenarios that I need to see it to believe it. So, until I see them as not RBBC and/or produce any sort of consistent fantasy RB, I am not drafting Sanders ahead of guys who are in situations with proven value for the RB. Jacobs is the best talent and the only show in town. Montgomery is a 3 down type of guy and even though Naggy likes multiple options in the backfield, Howard was getting RB1/2 volume without any pass catching ability; so, Montgomery should too. Lastly, Singletary landed in Buffalo who consistently wants to run the ball. Ignoring McCoy who is probably a HOF, Ivory and Murphy both were fantasy relevant when they were the lead dog in Buffalo so its safe to assume Singletary will get that same volume. I also think Singletary getting the reigns next year is much more likely than Sanders. Yes, Howard is on a 1 year deal but he is young and will continue to play somewhere. Meanwhile, McCoy and Gore are older than dinosaurs and will almost surely retire after this year; this gives Singletary the backfield by himself.

Jacobs= top talent and top volume
Montgomery = good talent and good volume
Singletary = good talent, good volume once Shady retires if not before
Sanders = good talent, good volume only if they don’t resign Howard and if Philly really does not want an RBBC

Sanders has too many possible negative obstacles for me to rank him higher than the other 3

I agree Jacobs is 1. That is clear.

I absolutely wouldn’t argue to see Montgomery being 2 but really I see that similar to the role Sanders is in, but it might be worse. He has Tarik Cohen AND Mike Davis. They didn’t pay Mike Davis to sit on the bench.

Singletary is a longterm investment to me. I doubt he makes much impact this year with Shady, TJ Yeldon and of course…He is infinite, he is all…Frank Gore. I’d love Singletary in the 2nd but I doubt he finds his way on the field through all 3 of those vets ahead of him this year. 2020 is a different story.

But in terms of Philly and Sanders, let’s really look at what Philly has had in the backfield since Dougy Fresh took over.

2016- Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles

This is clearly a case of 2 RB’s with different skill sets that needed to split time. Mathews was the runner who could catch a little but really Sproles was the pass catcher. Throw in the fact that Mathews was often hurt and only started 8 games, there really was never an opportunity to have a feature back

2017- Darren Sproles. LeGarrett Blount, Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement

The plan was to have Sproles and Blount split time at the start of the year with obvious roles as the pass catching back and the big bruising back. Well, Sproles gets hurt after 3 games and then start shuffling things around and finally land on Clement to fill that role. Then at the deadline the realize they have a championship level team and aren’t complete at RB so they trade for Ajayi who is more of a complete back. But they just got him midyear, so of course he is going to have to timeshare with the other two.

2018- Ajayi, Clement, Sproles, Smallwood, Josh Adams

This was just a comedy of errors of injuries.
Sproles only played 6 games. Ajayi only played 4. Clement technically played in 11 but he was never fully healthy all year. That plan at RB was blown up from the beginning and they were bringing in any back they could to just try and survive.

Miles Sanders is by far the biggest investment the Eagles have put into an RB. They have been surviving off scrap heap vet free agents, UDFA’s and late round picks. They finally put the investment in an RB this year. Trust me. Howard is NOT getting resigned. The Eagles have to pay Carson Wentz and they are living tight against the cap as is. They are going to put a premium on the cheap young talent and let expensive players walk. If Howard plays well, he’ll want too much money for the Eagles to keep.

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My draft is over.

I traded up from 11 to 4 to grab Miles Sanders, cost me a 3 and Jadaveon Clowney (it’s an IDP)

I took Justice Hill in the late 2nd

I traded my 4th for James Washington