I think this is pretty even, with a slight edge to the team getting the 1st.
For me, I do not believe JT is as good as his fans do. He’s fast and does show better hands than expected, but he goes down so easily. There are plays of tough runs sporatically, but not many. I’ve watched all his runs and they are generally lanes, big lanes, for him. He’s doing nothing special beyond hitting holes made by one of the best o-lines. He does not ‘earn’ yards the way other big time backs do and goes down far too easy to hand tackles. Keep in mind, rushing YAC includes just a finger touch or a slap on the back. That said, he does takes full advantage of opportunities and that is a skill. He has shown to be more competent catching than I’d thought. We all knew he brought speed, so that’s not a surprise. I just do not think he’s as “special” as many others do. I think his line is making it easy for him and if that changes, I think his usefulness changes quickly. I get I’m somewhat alone on this stand.
Najee has been far better than I had suspected. I figured he’d be good but I did not think he’d do what I’ve been seeing. He’s easily a miss on my pre-season evaluation. I thought he was more ‘college good’ but he’s putting it on tape in the NFL. It just happens PIT is a bit of a wreck so it’s hard to see it in the box scores.
So while they are close, I’d go Najee.
IMHO Burrow / Herbert are dealer’s choice. I’d lean Herbert but I just like him. However I’m not mad about either.
I like Cephus over Lazard. Another personal preference here, but DET is super unstable at QB so I’m not sure he values where I think plus I believe he’s done for the year with injury. Lazard is too tough to figure for me in his usage. He’s looked good, but I see something in Cephus.
Duh, 1st round better than 3rd round.
In the end neither side is a slam dunk. I’d lean Najee / Herbert but I totally get why someone likes the other way. Looking at your roster, the only hesitation would be your WR room would lose a body (Cephus) for this season. Not sure if that would scare me off, but you would have less options for 2021. Gaining that extra 2022 1st is appealing and could offset that short term loss. Plus in 10 team unless that team wins it all, there should still be HVT with the pick.
As a thought, do you think you could get their 1st to become a 2023 1st? I really love that class and it would make it nearly a smash accept TBH.
I guess with both sides being pretty similar, I’d just look it over and rank pieces involved as which you’d be most bummed not having. See which side is more valuable and go from there? I just am not sure this is a clear “Choose A” situation.
Sorry if this doesn’t help much definitively, but I wanted to at least breakdown how I see it in my mind so you can get my thoughts.