I have the 2nd pick in my dynasty rookie draft. With Barkley going to be the number 1 pick who do you think the best option would be at number 2? Im leaning towards Guice because no one is going to give him any competition. But would like to here everyones opinions.
I would go with either guice or penny. I like both of them, but would lean more towards guice at number 2.
I’ve had this conversation a of couple times. I really feel like there isn’t a huge difference between the 1.2-1.7ish at this point. I’ve seen Penny, Michel, Guice, Rojo, Freeman, Chubb in every possible combination haha. After Barkley they all come with their question marks - Guice having Thompson there, Penny and a terrible O line, Sony and a ton of other RBs in NE. I’d possibly think about trading back to the 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and seeing if you can get an extra pick, unless you’re really sold on a guy.
To answer you’re question though it’d be between Guice and Penny for me too if I was keeping the 1.2 and I’d probably lean Guice.
Guice by a lot for me. Michel would be 3rd.
Personally, Michel is my top rookie prospect after Saquan Bark-Gawd. Loved him in college and love him even more now that the patriots have drafted him. Most people will shy away cause its a patriots backfield but IMO, he’s walking into a great situation by going into one of the most high powered offenses in the NFL and is probably going to have the largest touchdown upside of the entire class of rookies. I am forecasting him to lead all rookies in TDs this year with double digits. He’s basically walking into the role that Lewis had with more talent. He’s also one of the top rated pass blocking backs in the class which is obviously crucial for TB12 which help keeps him on the field as a 3-down back if needed. Not to mention the patriots invested 1st round draft capital into him which they almost never do. They clearly love the guy and he’s going to get the opportunity to do his thing. Main downside with him is obviously fumbles but if he keeps his shit together and doesn’t pull a Ridley, the world is his oyster.
I love guice as a talent, but I have some serious concerns about his situation. Offensive line on washington when healthy, is top tier. Key words there are WHEN and HEALTHY which is a huge risk.
Secondly and the most important one being Chris Thompson. Chris Thompson severely limits his upside and the coaching staff has already come right out and said that Thompson is the guy who they will be going to on third down. Without the receptions, even if Guice averages 100 yards and 0.5 td/game, that’s just not going to cut it. You’re banking on a Thompson injury or some serious TD upside. Given the skins receiving corps, I just don’t see it happening. And I don’t see Alex smith repeating what he did last year offensively.
I’ve seen it all over the place but if it were up to me, I’d take Michel and never look back. Going down with the ship or up with the chip on Michel this year.
Averaging 100 yards and .5 TDs per game sounds wonderful. 1600 yards and 8 TDs? Where do I sign up?
As for Thompson, he’s coming off a broken leg. That’s an extremely dicey prospect, so I’d be pretty surprised if he does much early. Could even see the PUP. He’s also never played 16 games. I fully expect for him to get the first crack at the 3rd down role when healthy (there’s that ‘when’ word again), but I don’t think Guice is a Fat Rob/Morris/Perine level 0 in the passing, or anything close. Is he going to catch 80 ball? Probably not, but I’d expect 30ish receptions, at a bare minimum, which is more than enough considering his rushing workload and talent.
Side note, don’t automatically believe anything coaches say this time of year. Half of it is BS and the other half is wishful thinking.
if its me, i take beastmode 2.0 in penny, with guice being a close. second. well, third technically? anyway, i have had this argument with people on this thread before about why you dont go michel here, or really much at all for his price. simply put, its a NE backfield. which means he will have his games where he produces like a top 3 guy, then he will produce like the 76th ranked guy. thats the kind of production that if played right and you manage to get inside of billys head and figure out when to play him, could be substantial. but if its me, i dont try to guess when they are going to bench him. i just take players that i know will always be in the gameplan. like, a penny who is locked in for his 1st and 2nd down, with 3rd down workhorse potential. like a guice, who is locked for 1st and 2nd, but not as much third until thompson gets hurt. where michel, we have to worry about fumbles, other running backs (cause you have to know that bill will always play the matchups) and then you have to worry about the days he just doesnt produce, cause thats every player. hell, im taking ROJO, freeman, and chubb over him as well. kerryon is where i start to kinda go wellll he is so damn good, ill take him over this guy. michel is such a let down. not because of his ability, but exactly the oposite. i would have loved to see him land somewhere he can just be THE guy. not always in the cards though.
so long diatribe aside, im taking penny. lol.
I can understand Freeman and Rojo (though you already know I disagree), but Chubb is where I really balk. Are we 100% sure he’s not the RB 3 in his own (much worse) team year 1? I’m very much not sure. Even if he wins the 2 down roll outright, immediately, I think his Ceiling is severely capped in year one. His floor is also much lower in my view because he doesn’t have the receiving chops to fall back on.
I’d strongly reconsider Chubb in particular. That said, if I’m right, he could be a strong buy candidate late in the season/early in the offseason.
oh chubb is close for me too when it comes to michel, so its not a hands down thing. they are paying duke so he is staying as the third down guy for sure, im just fairly confident in him beating out hyde. probably not this year, but by next i think he will be a solid 1st 2nd down guy. there are a ton of risks when talking about chubb, i just didnt go into them cause i was already getting too wordy haha. honestly thats one i have flip flopped on a few times. chubb vs michel. so give me a few hours, ill probably change my mind again lol.
I think that’s fair. I agree about beating out Hyde, though I could also see a maddening 10ish touches each per game. Rendering them both useless. My main reason for not liking Chubb, in particular, is I’d be afraid I’d have a depreciated asset.
At least with Michel, you can trade with someone like me early. Lol. Not sure there are as many Chubb truthers out there.
now that i can get behind. my only thing is, i think hue finally goes out the door soon. or god, at least i hope so. that will help (probably) the RB situation there and help chubb. people do tend to undervalue certain players, no matter how they produce. so chubb probably would be a guy that would be cheap to go and buy. where michel would be semi expensive to sell. so from that i really dont mind getting either one, cause if you can get max value from michel to a truther, hell yes. if you can buy chubb cheap cause browns, hyde, hue, and browns again then hell yes to that too.
What skill stats do you have to back up Penny is beastmode 2.0 and mckissic or prosise dont get 3rd down receiving work if they stay healthy. He scares me a lot more than Guice or Freeman. If you are talking pure touch and 3 down potential, freeman has that hands down with a better O line and way better D that will allow that team to run more. The Seattle D is terrible now so how much running will that team be able to do in the second half of games. With that O line and Defense and Penny needing volume to make up for both, i am not sold on him being the clear #2 guy. I think he has way more risk and questions than even Sony Michel.
I love Penny as a player (kept switching him and Michel between 3 and 4 predraft), but I have to agree about the landing spot. I’m more afraid of Seattle RBs at this point than NE.
beastmode 2.0 is just based off of where he is playing. not exactly a skillset thing. although they are similar in some ways. but i dont have any proof on 3rd down, thats why i said he has the potential. cause those guys arnt exactly good, but they might be good enough in passing situations that they dont give him a lot of them. but this is a situation with a team who spent high draft capital to go get him (i know you can make that argument for michel, but it really is different. only because its bill belicheck) and that by itself speaks to how they will at least use him as a 1st 2nd guy.
as for freeman, he isnt really locked into that starting role. look at CJ anderson. he was their starter, and still wsnt producing at a high level. because they believe in booker. freeman is someone i see getting 200 carries, and probably around 30 receptions. thats nothing to sneeze at but its not exactly numbers that scare you. where penny could end up at 300 carries, and 40-50 (depending on how they do end up using him). thats why im saying, penny isnt the pick because he landed in some great spot with the a great o line, its opportunity and his skills. because if they DO start building that o line, he becomes a great pick for the future as well. the thing is, no RB this year is in a spot where there are no obstacles, except for barkley. so even though i do believe in a lot of this draft class for their RBs, im not foolish enough to say that they are all going to succeed because there are plenty of reasons for all of them to fail. these are just how i see things after all of my film study, and just knowing the teams they all went to.
Honestly, I would take Royce before Penny, but I wouldn’t take either of those 2 at #2. The question is who he should pick at #2. Penny shouldnt even be in that conversation for the #2 overall in a rookie draft.
Guice or Michel should both be before Penny easy.
Say what you want about the Pats and not being able to predict them but you know how Bill plays his backs. If he plays a team that is weak against the run, he plays against that. Pats have one of the best against the run schedules this year at least for the first half. Draft capital is so much more of a factor for Sony than penny. The pats never draft a player like that without having a huge plan for him. His floor and ceiling are both much higher than Penny.
If anything Guice is Bestmode 2.0 he plays like Lynch he runs like Lynch he has his attitude. That is your beastmode 2.0. He is clearly a better choice than Penny and a safer choice than Michel.
But he has a lower ceiling than Michel, hands down.
To answer the question.
I like to high risk high reward so i would take Michel at #2, if you want a safe bet who will produce be a solid RB2 maybe even RB1 1st year, than i would go with Guice.
but penny IS in that conversation, because he has the skillset to be productive, and on a team where he will get the lions share. and THATS not even a question. he will, barring injury, get 60-70% of the touches, maybe more but i wouldnt bank on that. now why in the world would you take royce over penny? the guy is on a team that doesnt run the ball all that well, and has always split carries. for years and years now, their top guy gets under 200 carries, with the occasional year where they will get more than. you have to go back to 2004 to find the last time they had a guy run more than 250 times. freeman is a teir down from penny no matter how you look at it.
as for guice being beast 2.0, yeah im good with that. thats why i said its not pennys skillset, just the team. the impact he can have on THAT specific team.
as for never drafting a player like that without a specific plan, yeah they do have a plan. its not a feature role. he will slide into the dion lewis role. which will be productive at times, but also not at all other times. want proof? maroney was the last 1st round guy they drafted. they also traded up to get him. they then used him situationally like they ALWAYS have with their RBs and he produced very little. his floor is nowhere near pennys BTW. cause michels floor is a complete bust. if he fumbles 3 games in a row or something, you will never see him again. ill admit, if things go really well for him his potential ceiling is higher. but thats banking on a culture change with the pats. which, is surprisingly possible these days. but pennys floor is a high end RB3. with top 5 potential.
as for guice being a clear better choice, thats very debatable as well. i dont mind people taking him over penny, but to be so bold as to say clear cut, thats not leaving much room for error and adjustments in your game. guice could easily become a guy who only shows up to move the chains, gets the occasional catch, and thats it.
all in all, much of this game we play is what you want. our opinions dont have to align at all so i dont want you to think im attacking you or something. i just know im right and youre wrong. lol
I am saying Royce over Penny purely because of landing spots. Denver only split carries the way they have in the past due to injury. Cj anderson played his first full 16 games last year and was one of only 9 rb’s to have over 1,000 yards rushing league wide. Anderson had 245 carries and 28 receptions to Devonte Bookers 79 carries and 30 receptions. How is that a split that would hurt Royce, in comparison to all the negative things affecting Penny’s potential he should be going before Penny. On top of that Denvers D is outstanding and they have a way better QB this year. Overall Royces outlook is way better than Penny’s. You put Penny in Denver, id take him #2 hands down. Penny in Seattle does not make sense at #2.
my thoughts exactly.
and im saying that landing spot has historically, since 2004, been at best a meh place for an RB to go. 0. 0 RBs have gone over 250 since 2004. some have gotten close a few times, but none have done it. where seattle on the other hand, has historically fed the ball to their feature guy. shaun alexander, marshawn lynch. they drafted this guy to be THE guy. there really is only 1 negative thing for penny. his O line. for royce, there are many. his O line isnt exactly going to blow you away either, team composition and how they have historically played their RBs, his skillset isnt the type that will give you big numbers with low carries, an established back already there, wasnt drafted high so he can be benched easier, there are a ton of reasons that he will do just alright, or even fail.
BTW that was CJs first time ever going over 1000, and he barely did it. he also only had 3 TDs. i dont blme CJ for that either, thats the system. thats how they do things. that could easily change with the right player going there, but freeman isnt some otherwordly talent that is going to come in and dominate. he will come in, do his job, move the chains, and get off the field. he will be very valuable to the broncos. i think he will be useful in fantasy. but not more useful than penny.
I never said freeman would dominate man, i never said anything other than purely on situation alone im taking freeman and penny back to back, no where near #2. That was also Cj’s first full season as i stated. I am not denying that they like feeding their back in Seattle, i am not saying Penny cant go in and be a monster if his college translates into NFL. The kid had back to back 7.4 yds per carry seasons. He is a very good back. But he got screwed landing in Seattle. As soon as there line fell apart so did marshawn because of it. every back they have had that has looked good gets hurt because they make them do it all on their own. Even the best back in the world cant stay strong and healthy and productive with an O line that is that terrible.
Penny is good, but because of his spot he isnt the #2 back.