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Odb, DJ or saquan? Who to keep/Target


#1

.5 ppr keeper league and you can keep players as long as you want. Would you rather keep?
David Johnson and Jordan Howard
Odb and Jordan Howard
Or
Saquan and Jordan Howard?
Right now I can keep David Johnson with Howard or I can send him into FA and I’m 3rd pick in the first round with Odb, Zeke, saquan and DJ up for grabs what do you all think?


#2

I would keep DJ and Howard and then hope you can get Zeke or Saquon with the 1.03. Worst case scenario you get ODB back with your draft pick anyway. If you release DJ back into the pool no chance you get him back at 1.03 imo.


#3

If I keep DJ I don’t have a first round pick.


#4

I would keep DJ and Howard.


#5

Do you have to keep Howard? Just a great value? I’d definitely keep DJ.


#6

Oh got it. Still, would keep DJ.


#7

Keep DJ. Maybe you get lucky and OBJ falls to round 2. Drafts can be weird like that sometimes.


#8

Howard is a 10th round keeper


#9

That is insane value for Howard. Def have to keep howard.


#10

Yea, I don’t love Howard, but at that price, you kind of have to.


#11

If you get to keep them forever, it is kind of hard to pass on OBJ. He ought to have a long shelf life. Particularly in relation to a RB. Not saying you should keep OBJ, but maybe something to consider since you get the player for life.

That said, there is nothing wrong with taking DJ and Howard IMHO.


#12

In redraft, I am always in a win now mentality, as you should be. Thinking about keeping 2 players to give a slight long term advantage should not outweight the massive advantage you gain in the current year by keeping a top 4 RB. They are not replaceable assets where as WRs are easier to find in later rounds. As good as OBJ is. Not to mention who knows how long Eli will play so his situation is not necessarily all that locked up.


#13

I can agree with that, and was just throwing out alternate options. I think the bigger point is how one constructs their team.

For example, I would suggest that OBJ is a bit more than just a good WR, so it would be keeping a true stud at a position. For me, while I am a fan of DJ, I can also see that there is a chance this year is tough sledding for him. AZ looks to be a bit of a mess. That is a current concern or at least something to consider. I am not sure it will be a big problem, but IMHO it looks like they might not be the offense from the last time DJ went nuts. As to the NYG, I have no idea how long Eli will hold up but he has not been good by any stretch of the imagination and OBJ has done well. I think that would mean an improvement at QB should help him out.

But in the end I do not believe there is a right / wrong. If it were that easy we would all draft the same. I was just pointing out something no one was at least discussing and also represents an approach to playing FF. Since this is a keeper league, holding any player would be more of a dynasty play and not just redraft. From how I read the question, that seems to be the view point the poster is taking.


#14

I think the DJ bad team narrative is blown way out of the proportion. His team was trash the year he blew up too. Sub 500, terrible o-line, no other options on the offense, average defense. Don’t see this year as much different. You swapped out a prehistoric palmer for a younger but injury prone Bradford. The good thing about DJ is his receiving talent means he can never be phased out of the game. So even if they get blown out, he is still the 2nd best if not the best option for receptions. His floor is insanely high and you have his rushing on top of that. He’s going to get 25-30 touches a game guaranteed and very few other assets in the league.

Also, this whole narrative of Eli sucks and any other QB would be an upgrade on him is also complete hyperbole. End of the day, Eli is an above average QB who is probably going to go into the HOF who gets the job done and loves targeting OBJ. To think that OBJ can have a higher ceiling than he does with Eli doesn’t really have any basis. All the teams with pro-bowl / top tier QBs already have top receiving talents (with the exception of Wilson). And as the NFL has shown year in and year out, trying to hit on a young QB talent is low probability. I’d rather know Eli is going to be there long term then take my chances with Webb, Lauletta or whatever other random QB comes out of the draft. I’ll take the 10 targets a game happily.

I agree that FF is all about being different when it comes to redraft leagues, trying to get a top 4 RB is the approach that gives you the greatest chances of winning. They’re very hard to replace and history has shown, WRs are easier to replace. I’m basing this off of history and numbers rather than guess work. If you look at the most rostered players of championship teams over the past few years, most have the stud RBs on them. Very hard to win without one. Not saying it’s not possible, just saying its much more difficult.


#15

I agreed with everything up to the point of Eli being above average. He’s been well below average for a while.


#16

Thanks everyone I really appreciate all the insight!!!


#17

Last year, was not a good year to judge. You put any quarterback in that situation not named russell wilson, and they would’ve failed. Had no Oline, no run game, and lost half of his starting WRs. But in the years he’d had a full roster with a healthy OBJ, he has been an above average quarterback, if not in fantasy than at least in real life.

2014 - 4,410 yards, 30 TD, 14 Int
2015 - 4,436 yards, 35 TD, 14 int
2016 - 4,027 yards, 26 TD, 16int


#18

Raw stats? How about this: the 19th best QB in the league, by QBR, last year was Cam Newton with a QBR of 49.6. In 3 of the last 5 years, Manning has been under that level. He’s mediocre.


#19

Not to pile on, but you are pulling stats from the years OBJ was there and not showing the year he was gone. You can say Eli is whatever, but watching those games (OBJ owner since his rookie year) and Eli’s stats are what they are BECAUSE of OBJ. It is not complete hyperbole. If that dude could not catch like he does, Eli does not have those seasons. That puts Eli closer like last year (2017) stats.

For the record, I do not think that Eli sucks. You cannot completely suck and win two rings. I just think he is past his prime and they need to be moving on. I believe OBJ could do just as well with a different QB, and OBJ does not have to do better to be a stud. It does not have to be a rookie QB either. With the way the offense is shaping up, no reason a veteran doesn’t elect slide in.

DJ could also be a concern if the other teams have to focus on him. That is not blowing anything out of proportion, it is stating that it is easier to take away a single point if there are few other worries. DJ is amazing, no doubt, and again I am in on him. I would happily draft him to my team and take any potential lumps. But if a defense only has to really take care of one main point of attack, I can see how that could make it harder. All I said is I can see a chance for tough sledding, but I am not calling for him to fail. I think you might be reading way too much into a concern that is not a doom and gloom forecast.

But none of the arguing (debating / whatever) really matters to me. I am not trying to sell anyone anything. All I did was bring up another way to consider his draft. I do go WR heavy and have not won my league admittedly, but I have been most points four of the last four years during the season. My team just likes to crap out in the playoffs :confused:


#20

Interesting def didn’t know that. I can see Cam having such a low QBR, didn’t think Eli was lower than him 3/5.

@octoberland I know those are years with OBJ. That’s why I said when OBJ and team have been healthy, he put up those numbers. I mean that applies to most guys not named Tom Brady. They go hand in hand. I’m not saying OBJ isn’t elite or one of the best WR around which he is. I just don’t think his numbers will be that much greater without Eli. Eli loves targeting him. Especially in the redzone. Which QB are you going to put in his place that will result in an increase in OBJ fantasy production? It takes time to build that rapport between WR and QB. I just don’t think it’s as easy as you or others making it out to be as if swapping in any other QB makes OBJ jump to like 1600 yards and 20 TDs all of a sudden. His production is already elite, with Eli. Not to mention QBs are scarce, especially good/elite ones. Where is this great QB going to come from if not taking a crap shoot in the rookie draft.