10 team PPR dynasty league…received an offer for Josh Jacobs…I would give up Jacobs in exchange for AJ Brown, Ian Thomas and a 2020 9th. I would be extremely strong at WR and TE if I take this trade, but would need to trade for or draft additional RBs at the rookie draft. I am out of the first round, but have the 2.01
How long is the trade good for? Because you need the NFL draft to happen.
My biggest concern is that the Titans are going to bring in a weapon that would take targets away from AJ Brown. Barring an acquisition, I think AJ Brown is set to be a major winner in the form of workload. They used him a few times in the WR sweep, this worked very well. The confidence in the coaches to give a rookie that type of work, as well as his physical ability and success in doing so, makes me think that AJ Brown could be a breakout (Potentially top 10 WR).
I’m in a similar boat choosing between Jacobs and AJ Brown in an Auction keeper situation. I’m in Wait & See mode with the Titans.
Jacobs is going to be the bell-cow back in a Gruden system. Gruden’s running backs do well and/or get a lot of work historically, Warrick Dunn(2001), Mike Alstott (FB 2001, '02, '04, '06), Cadillac Williams. Gruden also has a history of crappy Qb’s. Derrick Carr, with no tier-1 receiving threat, and the lack of passing work to Jacobs makes me weary. However, RB’s are not easy to come by and this guy owns his backfield. If the Raiders add weapons, then I think Jacobs becomes more valuable.
The two players are in opposite situations, the Titans need to stay basically the same in order to make AJ Brown have value. The Raiders need to add threats to make Jacobs more valuable. The talent comparison relative to their position is equal, so opportunity will have to dictate my choice, and I won’t have a good idea that till after the Draft.
He hasn’t really put a time frame on the trade…I imagine until he decides to withdraw or gets a better offer for the pieces involved. I appreciate your input…all good points. If I had to make a choice now, I lean yes to the trade because over the long haul, WRs have more longevity in a dynasty format than RBs, but losing him would put me at a disadvantage at the RB position because I don’t have very good depth there. I am a huge fan of AJ Brown but I agree that Jacobs owns that backfield and barring injury should continue to produce.
IMHO I would probably pass on that if you have to decide soon.
I love AJB, but I traded him in all the spots I had him for value. I do not think he will be bad, but I am not sure that he keeps things going at that pace. I believe it was a perfect storm for him, and next year the league will be better prepared. I also think without any extra weapons he has even less of a chance. More weapons will also take some away from him. I feel like this is about what we get for him, slight plus/minus depending on seasons of course. I think he is looking at Golladay-esque path. That is not bad, but I do not know he gets inside the top10 with repetition. I am not sure Tanny (who I am a fan of) is that type of QB.
That said, as noted both players are in similar situations on their respective teams. They both will gain some benefits from draft moves. Certainly WR holds longer value in the league. What I am thinking is that if both of them get the referenced upgrades on the offense, Jacobs becomes much more valuable that AJB. Look at the offer as is. Right now it is AJB + pieces to get Jacobs. Not the other way around. In my mind, you can keep Jacobs, see what happens in the draft and then still move him. If one or two studs come in to TEN, that value goes out quickly on AJB.
You should always be able to trade for AJB with Jacobs. You might not get other pieces, but you should be able to get him. I think more pieces in LAV helps, but no pieces does not hurt. In TEN I see either way hurting AJB.
RBs carry the value in FF IMHO. It is a shorter window, but higher value for comparable ranks across position. Superflex not withstanding.
So I would definitely wait until the draft before making that trade. If he pulls it, you can likely still make it happen after the draft. Keep Jacobs for now is my two cents. I hope it makes sense and helps!
So revisiting this post a month later. I stand behind my first opinion and apply it to what we’ve seen.
AJ Brown is still going to be the WR-1 for a run-first team. My expectation for him is a Tyler Lockett type of usage. He will get the most amount of targets, but that may only be 4 targets in a game.
Josh Jacobs is a huge winner. The Booker signing IMO solidifies Jacobs as the #1 back, I expect 18-22 carries a game and at least 4-5 targets/game to Jacobs. Henry Ruggs will help open up opposing defenses.
The decision I’ve made is: Jacobs over AJ Brown. There is a lot more depth at the WR position compared to RB’s that have full control of their backfield.
Narrative street as Mike calls it: I think AJ Brown’s true breakout is coming next year. This year I believe Derrick Henry run till he breaks, 300+ carries. But the titans aren’t committed long term to the run first strategy or I think they would have already extended Henry, instead they invest in Tannehill. With young talent in AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith, I think the coaching staff is using their Veteran talent and good defense to try and win a super bowl before a paradigm shift occurs and moves this team to a pass-heavy offense.
I really appreciated your insight…I didn’t make the trade and am glad I didn’t…as much as I like Brown. Jacobs was the right play.