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Pick 9 Draft Strategy


#1

Hey Footclan,

I know most redraft leagues drafts are a ways away, but its never too early to start looking at strategy, especially for those of us who know what draft pick we have already. The topic I bring forward is what to do at the back end of round 1, specifically pick 9 in a 10 team league. I have pretty consistently been a RB/RB truther, and this has been the first year it has looked like I would be picking a WR, Odell or Hopkins followed by a RB. Some mocks I have even gone Odell/Julio. But the more I look the more I come back to a RB/RB start, specifically with Melvin Gordon, just curious what others think in a similar position. Look forward to good discussion.

Thanks Footclan


#2

If the players are available, going RB/WR could pay off well for you if you are able to get a stud RB and WR. Would be setting yourself up nicely if you start with Melvin Gordon and Julio.


#3

i feel like julio is solid but offers very little upside, i would try to target maybe odell/hopkins and a stud rb, also depends on if its ppr or standard. thats just my take


#4

This is a half ppr league, standard scoring everywhere else across the board. I don’t see how Julio has no upside though, after last year he is entirely upside, there’s no way he doesn’t score more TD’s and he still had 1000 yards. I like Hopkins/Odell more sure, but i think id rather take Gordon first, and hope one of those guys falls as opposed to going Hopkins then Cook/Hunt. Also I like MT alot this year, may reach for him in the second.


#5

i had julio last year, he was solid but not spectacular. odell/hopkins offer spectacular. would you roll the dice on saquon? you can probably get saquon and gordon together

melvin is in the 2nd round almost every time, the mocks ive done. i use yahoo mock drafts and fantasypros


#6

@phileep, remember to factor emotion out of it. Julio ALWAYS has the upside of the #1 WR. ALWAYS.

@RedHanSoloCups at the very least, with Gordon and Julio, you set yourself up with a really nice reliable floor. That’ll give you more flexibility to take chances on other high upside guys.

Stats on Julio last 4 seasons:
Averages 10 targets per game.
Averages 63% catch ratio.
Averages 15.6 yards per catch.
Averages 1579 yards per season.


#7

ok i prob should have rephrased, yes i agree julio always has upside but compared to odell/hopinks i would much rather take one of them if they are available with the 9th, and then with the 2.02 mevlin should always be there.

yes julio has a nice floor but odell/hopkins also have the same floor BUT with td upside AND week-winning capability week in and week out.


#8

Gordon is a 1st rounder, no way he makes it to the second…Julio just may.


#9

in a 10 team, easy


#10

i have been pushing back to WR heavy these days. i go with teirs and values a lot. hell, the other day i did a 10 man mock and was at pick 10. i picked hopkins and then OBJ. thats the kind of RB craze you might still see come redraft time. i was very happy with the start of that mock. my mock crashed though so i didnt get to finish it to see what how i would have ended up handling RBs. my point im trying to make is that at the end of a 10 man, im going to go for hopkins or OBJ. they both have a real chance to be there at 9. which, is insane but true. you just cant beat that value. then on the swing back i would look at RB, because who doesnt want a top end RB? but i have also noticed that its just not great value for RB still. im usually looking at an AJ green, keenan allen, type player. i mean thats just a nasty start. only problem is, you have to really rely on rookie RBs to get it done for you.


#11

Go for the value man. Feels like there are a lot of RBs this year who are out of favor which you can pick up later and put in your lineup to do just fine (i.e. miller, anderson, lewis). If you have the chance to get 2 of OBJ/Hopkins/Julio, those are guys that can offer you the floor of an RB in the WR position and you can take a swing on some rookie RBs later on as well. If you hit on those RBs, you’re in a great position to win. Personally would rank it OBJ first, then pick whichever you like between Hopkins/Julio. In a redraft, I’d be fine with Julio cause he has yet to have a down season (If 1400+ yards is a down season, give that to me cause I’ll take it every time) whereas Hopkins has shown he has that downside. Granted everything thinks Watson is a god, if he regresses which isn’t out of the question given how horrible Houston’s line is (remember they traded away their best guy last year to Seattle), then Julio has a great floor and chance to rebound from last year. Not to mention’s Watson’s TD ratio last year is completely unprecedented and very unlikely he maintains it so I don’t put as much weight into the TDs of Hopkins vs JJ. Atlanta was horrible last year and it also took them 2 years before clicking with Shanohan so there’s a chance that happens this year.

Don’t forget Melvin gordon isn’t really the safest floor either. He’s a pretty boom bust RB so given the choice between him and Hop/JJ, I’ll take Hop/JJ with the higher upside all day and take a later value RB + a rookie to fill the gap. Not to mention Gordon also has injury history with his foot, which is something I’m pretty wary of as an RB.


#12

I disagree with a lot of this. Brown was not Houston’s best guy because he didn’t play. Talented, yes but terrible attitude. That line improves this year, not a lot granted, but better than nothing.

Melvin Gordon is not a boom or bust guy. Last season he was an RB1 13 out of 16 games. He was the 6th most reliable especially in PPR, he had 58 receptions last season. His floor is high and higher without Henry to use on the goal line.

I also think you are underplaying the risk of re-injury for Odell. A broken ankle never heals the same way. Especially with surgery.

@phileep If Gordon isn’t taken in the first in a PPR league, then I really want into that league.


#13

First of all, thanks for all the opinions, really like getting different sides from everyone. I tend to agree with alot of what everyone has said. After reading the article about how often a first round RB busts, but also how big a drop off it is from a top RB to a round 3/4 it really makes me feel like I have to take at least one RB in the first 2 rounds. As nice as two of Hopkins/Odell/Julio would be, i don’t like the idea of McKinnon/Penny as my 2 RB’s. I like Penny alot more if he’s behind Gordon/Hunt/Fournette.

After doing mocks Im really liking the possibility of going Gordon/Julio/Thielen/Penny, barring anybody dropping out lots. I dont see any RB’s outside of Bell/Gurley/DJ/Zeke/Kamara that I want to take in the first. If Gordon is gone by my first pick it’s highly possible i go WR/WR.

@Guinness
@MikeMeUpp
@FantasyFootballDad
@BusterD
@phileep


#14

I should note that in my league almost always someone drops to where they shouldn’t. So I have a feeling someone will drop to me that shouldnt(Kamara) and it makes this decision a whole lot easier.

For example took DJ like 7th two years ago, and took Bell/Brown at 10/11 the year Bell got hurt. The guys in my league are good at inseason and keeping up with it, they just tend to pick wildly.