Acquired (via trade) picks 1.02 and 1.03 in my dynasty rookie draft. At the time of the trade, I was confident in who the two players were that I was gunning for. Now, about a month has passed and I have completely mindf#$&ed myself. Which rookies would you take at 1.02 and 1.03?
guice and penny. i dont really question it after that. they have the least amount of questions to them, landed on pretty good teams for their skillsets, and both just happen to be super talented as well. penny may not have a great YPC, but he will have volume to conteract that awful o line. and guice is the opposite. not that he has a great o line, just that he wont get as much volume, but his YPC should counteract that. im also not worried about his ability to catch, as i think that is a bit blown out of the water. you could make arguments for others, but none of them are as safe, and have a high ceiling.
Those were my original 2, and I completely agree with you about the whole “Guice doesn’t catch” sentiment. I just keep seeing Sony taken in the top 3 and he definitely passes the eyeball test. I was also worried that my Seahawks bias is blindfolding me. Thanks for the response.
michel is a fan favorite right now, and situationally will do work. i prefer someone who is going to be as consistent as possible and not possibly disappear for games at a time like a patriot RB can. RB stats are staggeringly low as a franchise, and bill just dosent seem to want to give one guy the ball consistently. there have been moments over his career but as a whole he just doesnt. bill also doesnt like mistakes, and considering michels history (which granted, has gotten better) of fumbling and his injury history as well, i just dont see it going great for him. michel would have been in the conversation for me if he goes most anywhere else. the first game he fumbles, i would look out for him to be benched the next game. and if he fumbles again, that might be his career done. at least with them. ask ridley what happened to him when he fumbled lol.
Same thoughts I had. On the flip side, Michel’s draft capital makes it hard to imagine them not using him consistently. Regardless, you have further cemented my confidence in Guice and Penny.
well, i have heard that argument as well. but i just point to lawrence maroney. another 1st round patriots RB who was actually drafter higher than michel, and he had a really pedestrian career. i know a lot about this situation because i have had this argument far too many times haha.
Both sides there. Read into it what you will and make your own choice. End of the day, go with your gut. Going to be a decision you have to live with for a long time so better to be wrong on someone you chose than to be wrong on someone chosen by someone else
Standard or PPR?
Penny is my number 2 in the sense that he is “the guy” in Seattle. Guice and Michel are close and for me it comes down to the fact that I will NEVER trust the Patriots backfield with Bellichek at the helm. Plus, Guice is the more talented back as far as I’m concerned.
Also comes down to how long term or short term you look in planning your dynasty team.
If you think more short term, go Guice and whoever you like better between Penny and Michael. I personally would take Michael as the Seattle offensive line is in tough shape, there defense is not what it used to be, and their passing game will suffer. I also prefer RBs in the higher scoring offenses.
If you think more long term, go with Guice and a WR, either DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley. WRs get hurt less, have longer careers, and generally have a lower bust potential, but they tend to produce less in their first year. So if you go WR with one of those picks, don’t expect too much this year from them.
If you decide to go with this approach, nothing wrong with it, but would trade down from the 1.02 or 1.03 on at least one pick. You can get these guys later and maybe pick up an extra 2nd for them.
Exactly. If you took Moore or Ridley at the 1.03 you would get laughed out of the league. Trade down to the back of the first and pick up another pick or piece.
I didn’t mean you should draft a WR at 1.3. You should definitely trade down if you want and profit off of the early RBs in dynasty trend . This RB heavy drafting in the first round of dynasty is a very recent trend. 2-3 years ago it was all WR in the first round due to longevity and production. Now this year it is all RBs due to recency bias. We got spoiled last year with rookie RBs being good like Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, Cook, Hunt, Kamara. Now everyone is jumping on the hype train. Look at 2016. Zeke, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Dixon, Paul Perkins, CJ Prosise, Jordon Howard, Davontae Booker, Kenyon Drake. That is the nore expected outcome of of incoming rookie rbs. Just be careful not to play too much onto recency bias and profit from those who are.
The league is full PPR. I am also set up quite nicely at receiver, but don’t have much behind Gurley at RB. As a result, I used my depth at receiver (and traded Dak to a Cowboys fan) in order to acquire the 1.02 and 1.03. So I likely won’t be trading back to grab one of the receivers. Appreciate the input though.
It’s not so much recency bias as it is a reaction to the talent distribution of the class. Its pretty difficult to deny that there is much more talent in this RB class than the WR class.
It’s also a correction (or possibly an over correction, but I don’t think so) from the several year long trend of overdrafting rookie WRs in the wake of the Beckham/Evans/Cooks/Watkins/Adams/Robinson/Landry WR class. It seemed like for several years after that absurd class, which followed closely in the heals of other classes with elite production from WRs early, every one was trying to catch that lightning in a bottle, and for the most part that just hasn’t worked out. The old wisdom was that it takes a few years for WRs to develop, and it seemed that that may no longer be true. The last few years have told us it very much is still true, and that the those guys were very much the exception, not the rule.
So really, the reason the RBs are going high this year is because there are multiple out there who have legit lead back potential and there are likely no WRs who are anything close to locks to be consistent starting fantasy assets any time soon. If there was a Julio Jones or AJ Green in this class, I’m sure they’d still go high, but there is not.
I think Moore had potential, but his landing spot kind of screwed him over. We all know Cam can’t pass in the intermediate to save his life and that is Moore’s specialty.
@FantasyFootballDad has a great point here. In a rookie Dynasty draft I am confident over his career DJ Moore will lead to more wins than another RB especially in full PPR.
I have Michel behind Penny because I will always take the risk that a player’s YPC will be low over a player who may not get the carries to begin with. Draft position says Michel will get them, history says that Michel won’t get them. Penny’s issues are the O-Line, which will look very different this year.
Now DJ Moore is going 1.07 right now in drafts and has a similar skill set to Michael Thomas, who was taken in the 2nd. If you try and predict what the Panthers will do this season based on the moves they have made, it looks like Cam is done scrambling as much. He does have great escapability from the pocket, and DJ Moore will likely be the guy Cam goes to when in trouble.
With the 1.02 I would take Guice all day, but for the 1.03 I think there is a real chance you find yourself a Prosise, Drake, Yeldon, Abdullah situation. Just think back to the hype around Abdullah and Yeldon.
My first choice = Guice + Moore
My Second = Guice + Penny (Less risk than Michel)
Curious, in what way do you think his skill set is similar to Thomas? I’ve not seen this comp, really don’t see it at all. What am I missing?
Well let me be clear, Thomas is better than DJ Moore.
Thomas is a little taller, but DJ is still 6 foot with similar weight going into the NFL and a decent reach. Thomas is a bit stronger, but DJ is a little faster.
The similarities I am referring to is how they run routes. Excellent technical route running, burst off the line, works back to the QB, and they have the ability catch away from the body. DJ needs work with the hands, but an NFL training camp should improve that.
It is really the ability to create separation quickly and work back to the QB that has me excited. The Panthers want Cam to use his check-downs. Funchess saw a lot of production from Cam scrambling.