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Projections vs Instinct


#1

Which one do you rely on more when making a crucial Start/Sit decision. I always have a tough time choosing between what I think and what the general statistical projections are.


#2

instinct has got me two dubs


#3

tough call, but ive gotten off to great starts in all four leagues with the gut.

if you have the time, really dive in to previous players stats against those defenses, whats their average points/yards a game, how many they rack up on this team, who has done the best/worst against that team and why, guesstimate on game script, a guy like lynch needs close games to be effective where a james white is effective entire game.

im sure you already do this and its not like the analysts arent also doing this to get projections, but to me it helps indicate if im on target with who i want to start and gives me more information than “these assorted analysts think this will happen” without the depth of the why they landed there


#4

Good insight, I always try to get information from all different sources, podcasts, and stats to get an idea of the smartest plays. Although there has always been times where you make the best calls but with the luck of the draw that one player on your bench goes off


#5

oh yeah, fantasy is fickle that way. few weeks ago, i felt great, and then BAM tate and white put up 50+ between the two on my bench and i lose to the guy who is still undefeated.

just take in as much info as you can and go from there. the more you know on your guys matchup and how others have performed who play similar roles, thats when i feel ive made the best calls. the weeks i dont have as much time and just pick purely off projections, i feel thats when i fall short. see example above lol


#6

Little of both
I start by looking at the point spreads and over/under to determine the odds of it being a high or low scoring game
Then look at the individual matchup, example, what corner will likely be covering my receiver
Check the injury reports on both teams to make sure there isn’t something that is going to influence my guys performance
If I’m still undecided i look at the projections and ask you guys
So you can say it’s gut but based on data

As for my first two points, I’m sitting David Johnson for Lindsey this week for just those reasons


#7

Yeah I’ve decided to play clement over AP based on the injury reports despite most projections have AP higher. I just don’t trust his variability. I’m also playing Lindsay this week so best of luck!


#8

leg work.

Projections are just numbers and most of the time they seem to be randomly thrown together.

Find the experts you trust, watch film, check vegas, check the weather, trust your gut only after you have factored everything you can possibly think of if it is still ‘even’ in your eyes.


#9

Its alot easier to stomach a play on your gut that misses then it is to ingnore your gut and have that player go off on your bench because of someone else’s rankings. Rankings tend to be just confirmation bias and its tough to not fall into that I suggest always doing your own initial thoughts with some research then check an assortment of rankings/projections and see which ones you match up with and which ones you dont then you can further investigate as to why.


#10

I rely on my analysis, research, and instinct. I don’t really pay too much attention to projections cause even the more “accurate” analysts only have like a 30% hit rate.

I rely on projections/#s more when I think about season long/ROS comparisons between players. Like for example, if I think someone like Cooks is a WR1 ROS, what does that imply in terms of his production and is that reasonable?

Or when I look at valuing players, i.e. James white, I project out what his current pace would be to see if that is sustainable or not.

But when it comes to start/sits, it’s based on my own opinions. Most of these “experts” doing projects are just average dudes like you and I doing simple multiplication. And then when you look at ECR, it’s just the average across a bunch of average dudes who may or may not know more than you and I. The guys that I like and rely on most, don’t even do in season projections.


#11

I was projected for a big loss last week and initially said screw it and was gunna have some fun and play lower projected players with higher upside.
then sunday morning changed my mind and played the matchups and projections.
the difference in the flex cost me 5.3 pts. i lost by 4.

Go with your gut


#12

If you’re referring to Yahoo/ESPN projections, ignore them. Those things are totally useless.


#13

yeah totally. Im just a real analytical type person so sometimes its hard.
This week though collins 8.7pts is an easy one to call BS on.


#14

Yeah my only loss this year I was projected on yahoo to win by like 60 points.


#15

Wait so you guys don’t listen to everything Matthew Berry says?? Lol


#16

Hey Drizzle
Good call on clement


#17

Heard he was on a pitch count and switched him out last second… gotta love fantasy