RBs w/ competition - who leads the pack?

Assume a .5PPR scoring format. Which of the following RBs are most likely to finish ahead of the pack at the end of the season? Small writeup on each.

Burkhead - Lead NFL in pts/route last season, goal line monster, contending with Sony Michel for touches

Anderson - 270 touches last season w/ the Broncos, now competing with CMC. JStew in the same role amassed 210 touches. Due for more goal line work?

Thompson - Guice isn’t going to take away 3rd down snaps. CT was extremely efficient last year, just couldn’t withstand the volume. Alex Smith has spent his entire career dropping off passes to good RBs. Bonus?

Kerryon - Mixed bag of competition. Blount at the GL, Riddick on 3rd down. Abdullah? Probably not, but maybe. Kerryon profiles as a workhorse back and the offense should be great, but a lot of chefs in that kitchen. Especially for a rookie.

  • Rex Burkhead
  • CJ Anderson
  • Chris Thompson
  • Kerryon Johnson

0 voters

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Mark my words: Guice is going to catch 40 balls, at a minimum and will lead that backfield in snaps by quite a lot.

Anderson will get work, but they want McCaffrey to be the guy and he has the talent to do it. I expect Anderson’s work load to be less than Stewart’s last year.

40 balls? That’s projecting him for ~60 targets, is it not? That would effectively cut CT’s value in half. What lead you to believe he’ll be so prolific and utilized in that role?

As for CMC, he played something like 70% of offensive snaps and 20% on ST. I can’t see him getting much more action than that, and CJA is undeniably more talented than JStew.

You don’t need 60 target a to catch 40 balls, but that would not surprise me at all. Fornette caught 36 balls on 48 targets in 13 games and had had no more pass catching resume coming out of college than Guice.

Add in the fact that Thompson has never been able to stay healthy and that last year was a major outlier in both targets per game, yards per reception, and TDs, and that he’s coming off a major lower body injury suffered late in the season (has he even practiced yet?) and I think he’s very easy to project for major regression.

The Fournette pick is fair, but JAX didn’t have a proven satellite back, a legit pass catching TE and a solid WR corps like the Redskins do. I only estimated 60 because you typically see around a 70% catch rate for RBs.

I don’t disagree with some regression for CT, but even then, he’s worth his ADP. I mean this guy was like RB13 in FPPG when he was healthy. I can’t look at Guice’s profile or collegiate history and say he’ll make CT irrelevant.

I would have to go with Anderson. I think they brought him in for a reason. McCaffrey has his role and they are happy with it. He is not a 200-250 rushes a season guy. He will be around 100 rushing attempts and 100 receptions. Last year Stewart had 198 rushes, 680 yards and 6TDs, and that was at 31 years old and not playing in week 17. Anderson is 4 years younger, and a better rusher. Last year Anderson had 245 rushes and 1007 yards on a pretty bad Broncos team. I see him easily getting 200+ carries, 1000+ yards and 6-8 TDs this year.

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Yeldon was a very good receiving back.

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I would argue “very good”. Really not close to the efficiency that CT provided, so I’m not sure I think the comparison is noteworthy.

Last year is an extreme outlier in Thompson’s career. Yeldon had 30 receptions in 10 games (Thompson had 39 in 10 games) and averaged more yards per reception than any other year of Thompson’s career (other than last year, in which he averaged an unsustainable 6 more ypr than his next best year).

CJA should be a great deal for owners. CAR does not want McCaffrey to be a huge rush guy, but they rush a lot. He might lose some goal looks to Cam, but I think he gets more catches than people expect. He is actually a pretty good review over his career.

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I expect CMC to get a lot more carries this year, actually. There should still be enough work for Anderson to be a value, but I take issue with the ‘Carolina doesn’t want him to be a huge rush guy’ statement. I think CMC will get somewhere in the range of 170-200 carries this year.

Based on what? Assuming he has a similar receiving role, that would put him in conversation for being a top 5 back in PPR. I find it hard to believe they bring in CJA and limit him to ~120 carries.

Based on draft capital and the words of both the head coach and new OC. I don’t think it would be surprising at all if they brought in Anderson for exactly that. 120-140ish carries. Largley for short yardage and clock killing, with a couple series of early down work mixed in. He is a mediocre NFL RB and has had a hard time staying in the field (last year is the first year since high school he’s broken 850 yards on the ground). They needed a big body that wasn’t CAP, and he was cheap.

But even if I’m wrong about Anderson, CMC can still get in that range of carries and not even lead the team in carries. As a team, they rushed the ball 490 times last year. Newton accounted for 139 of them. That leaves 351. If you’re doing the math, if it were broken evenly in half, that’s about 175 each and Anderson could get as many as 180 and CMC could still reach the 170 carry mark I mentioned.

CMC might get that for sure, but I see that number (likely higher) happening more from a total number of touches as opposed to specifically rush attempts. Just my thoughts though, nothing really to take issue with :blush: