ROI - Draft Values

Question for any math gurus out there. I’m trying to come up with a formula to determine a “return on investment” for my league’s draft. So I would import our draft board and then import where a player finished overall and by position.

But I can’t come up with a formula that would make sense to determine the value of the pick. So I was originally just going to keep it simple and say draft position/end of year ranking. But that would be flawed because if a player taken at 1 overall, finished at 1 overall, his ROI would be 100% which is technically true but just doesn’t seem accurate… Whereas somebody like Alvin Kamara has an ROI of like 2875%. Any help is appreciated as I’m not really a math wizard.

Unfortunately I cannot help you with a formula but rather this piece of potential advice.

As Colin Cowherd said regarding the current NFL’s situation with Is it a catch/not a catch - When something gets to complicated the answer is to simplify.

So in regards to you situation, it sounds like if you need a math wizard to come up with a formula, its possible even if that happens down the road A or B could be wrong within the formula, which means you may have to fix the formula and end up on a crazy road.

So my advice? keep it simple

I think you are on the right track. It’s difficult to give values like that, because there are so many variables to take into account. Like how the ballers have their true rankings based off of how consistent a player is. If you want a value, keep it simple and do exactly as you said. Give them their value based off of end of year stats, and where they were drafted. Sure, it will give you some crazy numbers, but getting a RB1 in the 12th are less round is crazy good value. Which is what kamara was. Fantasy football is supposed yo be fun, and what’s more fun than some crazy looking numbers?

I to like ROI calculations and I accept the challenge…

The simplest thing to do is break it down by position. so for RBs list the order in which they were drafted and then the order in which RBs finished. so Kamara basically you can say he should have ben drafted RB4 but was actually RB30 so he is a +26.

The other thing you can do is find the average point total for a position. if you are a 12 team league with 2 RBs 1 flex then maybe take the top 30 RB totals and average them. So say average RB total for the year was 150 and Kamara had 250 but the RB 30 (where Kamara was drafted) had 40 (250-150)/40

I think that would give you a decent number in terms of draft value. It would still need some more tweaking because obviously AB, Gurley and some other top draft picks are going to have low scores even though they scored a lot. But this might give a good starting point.

Then you would need to somehow find a factor to account for positional differences as well

1 Like