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Round 1, 6th Pick, Jones or Beckham?


#1

I’m really interested in people’s perspective on this. On nearly every mock I’ve done, at pick number 6 in half point PPR my choice is between ODB and Julio Jones. I can think of reasons for or against either. Jones, injury prone at times and new offensive coordinator but he is who he is. ODB is now sharing targets with Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram but that may take double coverage pressure away from him and let him shine even more. I know either are a good choice but I’d like to open this up for discussion.

Other alternatives are: Lesean McCoy, Mike Evans, AJ Green, and Melvin Gordon.

Let the debate begin!


#2

between the 2, i always lean jones. but upon further investigation… im starting to lean more towards OBJ. with julio you have that boom quality to him. like a 300 yard game. OBJ you get a consistent boom from him. OBJ has every single year been a minimum of 90 receptions, for 1300 yards, and 10 touchdowns. thats crazy numbers especially for a guy who is only going into year 4. jones has his ups and downs. and its not really his fault either. because now he is the big man on a big offense. and here is the kicker that i never knew. jones has only broke 10 TDs once in his 6 year career. and has only broke 1300 yards 3 times in his 6 year career. he has only broke 90 receptions twice! those are three things OBJ has done every single year of his career. so if its me, i always like to go for as sure of a bet as i can. and thats OBJ just off of the stat line. now thinkin about marshall showing up, i really dont think that hurts him. in fact, i think that helps him a lot. the only thing i dont know how i feel about him is in dynasty. because once eli is gone, who is gonna throw to him? even though eli really isnt that good he has his moments. anyway, for a redraft, OBJ for sure.


#3

Let’s go to the metrics!!! Yay everybody loves metrics!

This is like comparing the best tasting fuji apple to the best tasting granny smith apple. So what these numbers tell us is that these are very similar players. The biggest difference is that Julio gets more yards and OBJ gets more TDs. Julio may lose some yards because he is 28 and the Falcons are starting to spread the ball out more. OBJ could lose TDs because of the WR and TE additions for the Giants.

I would say Julio because the offense will have more opportunity and TDs are harder to predict, but you really can’t lose.


#4

OBJ.

We know the Julio ceiling. We know he’ll be week to week with injuries. Ankle injuries are dangerous for WRs. We know age isn’t on his side. Remember what happened to Megatron? Those big receivers take abuse.

OBJ will become a more efficient receiver with added passing threats. Less double coverage. Not that it means much, but he said he’s having the best offseason of his career. With B Marsh, hopefully he’ll mature more and avoid mental mistakes. We are seeing one of the greatest receivers ever, enter his prime. Personally, I want a front row ticket.


#5

OBJ’s best season is around 270 points depending on your league settings and Julio’s is 30 points higher. Julio has also played more games than OBJ in the last 3 years.

Finally, if you want to compare two players, when Megatron was Julio’s age (28) he had 1500 yards and 12 TDs. I don’t disagree with your logic @Lt.Dangler, but most of the points you made aren’t supported by OBJ’s trending. He has actually been less efficient the longer he is in the NFL.

@BusterD, hypothetical for you:


As you can see, Julio is more a more efficient end zone target, but OBJ is targeted 29% more from inside the 20 and 36% more from inside the 10. So what if the shiny new TE, Branden Marshall (who has a better red zone catch rate than both), and the new running game steal end zone targets from OBJ?

Note: I like both of these players and really feel like it could go either way, I am simply playing the numbers.


#6

Your points are well taken.

Odell came into the league injured, so the 3 year injury sample is a smart one by you. If you take a 2 year sample Odell comes out on top. I’m not sure if there’s a website or report that archives # of weeks on the injury report, but I have a feeling Julio was on there more than Odell in the 3 year sample you wisely chose. This is a huge factor in your weekly starting decisions. Last year was a great example. I rolled out OBJ every week without concern. I cannot say the same for Julio owners. In addition, if you want to look at best season, you must wait until OBJ gets into his 5th season, as that’s when Julio got to his pinnacle. Also, if you extrapolate OBJs rookie season, I’m sure he gets close to Julios best.

My point about efficiency, was a counter point to the argument that he will get fewer targets which will drop his numbers (because of the addition of a rookie tight end, which historically have been overwhelmingly subpar, and an aging Brandon Marshall). He will see looser coverage so yards per reception should go up. He should also have more scores from outside the 20 from this increased efficiency. I think we can all agree, OBJ had quite a few off the field/concentration issues last year, which hampered his efficiency. With less pressure on him and another year to mature, he’s in line for a statistical bump from last year IMO. Julio is in line for another year riding the injury report. My point about Megatron is that when a big receiver starts to fall apart it happens fast. Not necessarily an age to age reference. OBJ is safer and not even in his prime yet.


#7

Fair, to be honest I always run trends by 3 years if I can, and yeah that dreaded “Q”.

After watching a lot of OBJ game footage, his catch rate is mostly effected by bad throws. He does have an odd number of dropped passes though.

I don’t disagree with an older wideout’s breakdown, I just don’t see it yet with Julio. He doesn’t have muscular problems, he has bunions on his foot. Which he had surgically removed this off-season. His sprain was early enough in the season that it should be fine by now.