Royce Freeman Projections?

Where do you guys think Freeman will fall this week? A worthy starter in PPR?

Who are your other backs? PPR or standard?

I think he’s a top 10 play this week regardless of format. Seattle’s D doesn’t scare me anymore and even back then there were times guys broke off good games running against them so it can be done. Freeman is the first rookie RB to start for them since TD and I am buying in big this week.

Strongly disagree with this. Broncos coaching staff has been pretty adament about forcing this into a committee. Booker will still get looks, esp on third down early on in the season. I’d bet good money that a 1,2nd down back on a mediocre offense behind a mediocre line as a rookie will not be a top 10 play. He’s a fine flex play, nothing more than that.

Also, seattles pass game is bad. Their run D is just fine. Bobby wagner is still the best LB in the game and Earl thomas just reported so he’ll probably be playing as well. It’s not some knock it out of the park play.

Not sure if you’re trying to compare freeman to a HOFer already, but maybe pump your breaks a bit or you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

Put another way, name me which out of the following list you think Freeman beats out for top 10:

Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, Fournette, Barkley, CMac, Hunt, Cook

Hell, Freeman doesn’t even break my top 15. Easy to throw out hyperbole’s, hard to justify when you think about it rationally.

I think Seattle isn’t going to be a strong team this year and Denver will be considerably better with a capable quarterback. Out of who you listed I like Freeman this week better than Cook for sure, though I do like Drake this week to pop as well.

Thomas just walked in off the street for the Hawks and they are missing both Bennett & Richardson from last year, who accounted for nearly 50 stops on the season. Pro Football Focus grades them out as the 8th worst run mitigating line, while Denver’s o-line graded out top 10 last year and led the way for one of the few 1000 yard runners in the league in spite of poor usage of C.J. Anderson in the middle of the season.

The usage issue worries me a little bit but I see Joseph announcing a rookie as the starter is a vote of confidence. I see 15-20 touches as a floor even in if there is a 60-40 split in carries and I think Freeman can do some damage with those touches, more than what is expected when people look at the lineups and see he is going against the Seattle D.

You can name 10 better backs but that don’t mean all of them will produced every week.

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Obviously. Those are consensus rankings for for this week. Can others leap them? Of course. But going into the weekend, I can’t really see who Freeman jumps on that list. You said he is a top 10 back this week. In addition to those 10 he would also have to out perform, mixon, collins, Devonta Freeman, Drake, Lamar Miller. All guys who have better shot of outscoring freeman. Can it happen? Sure. Would I be willing to bet money on it? Hell no. If I knew freeman was def going to be the lead back by a mile, could maybe get behind him being top 12. too many question marks as is.

15-20 touches from a mediocre offense, doesn’t inspire that kind of offense.

I would 100% take Cook over him. Vikings heavy favorites at home. even with Murray vulturing goal line work, I’d rather have Cook.

Agree with you that Hawks might not be as good as last year, but I just value Wagner much more than you. IMO the best line backer in the league by far and also one of the best run stoppers there is. 0 missed tackles, all year. And they have other guys to replace the line.

Wagner’s great and the twins look to be good for the future. I just think they are a team in transition. Lots and lots of young players on that Seattle team now. Lots of vets taking over new roles as leadership. They are going to need some time to gel.

I’ve seen some nice flashes this preseason in the Denver offense. I think they will be an evolving offense throughout the year and I think their defense will give Seattle’s largely untested receiving core some problems. It comes down basically to me betting that an emerging Broncos offense will be able to overtake a now middling Seattle defense.

if you want to break it down to ‘law of averages’ then I get your argument. There are a 32 starting backs this week and a few that aren’t named starter that could do something. It’s also hard to judge o-lines and defenses based on last year with the year to year changes so you just have to make your best educated guess. I stand by it, but I realize it’s a bold take and I’m sticking my neck out in doing so. People liked K. Hunt first week last year, but no one predicted him to have the day he had.

I loved hunt last year. Took him early in most drafts and got lucky and hit. That was a totally different situation than this though so don’t think they are that comparable. Hunt walked into a role where he was locked for 75%+ work load right away as a 3 down back, and I loved his college tape. I did not predict that he would blow up the way he did, but I did think he was going to be a high end RB2 at a minimum with RB1 upside right out the gate just based on opportunity.

I’d say freeman is not really outstanding at anything. He’s just pretty good at everything. Which isn’t knock on him. Talent is there, opportunity isn’t… yet.

Definitely a bold take. Can respect that.

Yeah when Ware went down you knew Hunt was in for volume.

Joseph can be stubborn but lots of people called him out when he still had Book listed as the 1 after the dress rehearsal and was talking crazy stuff like Freeman playing the 4th game. What Freeman has done in the preseason has stood out, particularly his YAC. I’m not thinking he blows it up like Hunt did, but I can see 85+ and a score and a handful of catches added in.

I think that is enough to chart out around RB1 land. I don’t think we are that far off. I just think I am far more optimistic than you are that he is going to ‘take the reigns’ out of the gate and that the Seattle defense can now be ran on far more effectively than in the past.

I can’t see Booker, as ineffective as he was, eating away too much in a share unless Joseph is just hell bent on getting him on the field. Ideally he puts Booker out there more on 3rd just to ‘make sure’ the pass protection is there. If that happens Freeman is more valuable in standard than he is in PPR, but I do think Freeman has a 3 down skill set. It’s just rare head coaches trust rookies for blitz pickups, but not unheard of.

I’m having a similar dilemma, behind my DJ and Collins, I have the possibility of Freeman, Crowell, Thompson, and Gillislee in a 12 team PPR that I am constantly changing. Love Freeman, but always hesitant using a RB in his first game, love Crowell and his matchup vs DET but injuries in preseason and reports going against one another regarding the workload, thompson in PPR could be intereseting in this matchup but coming off injury has me hesitant out the gate, and Gillislee i think falls into the end zone 2x or he does absolutely nothing behind Kamara.

I was correct in my assessment that Seattle could be run on, but Phillip Lindsay has far too big of a share of the Denver backfield right now the way it is shaking out this is a three headed backfield.

Royce 15-71 yards (zero use in passing game)
Lindsay 15-71yards ( couple of catches including receiving td)
Booker 2- 4 yards and a couple of catches

Yeah, that was the main concern above everything.

That backfield is a total mess.

The lack of receiving involvement is worrisome. Looks like that is entirely locked up by Booker/Lindsay.